Stipe vs DC at UFC 226; there’s your IFW main event. For the HW strap obviously. 

Joey

Jan 17th, 2018

If we learned a single damn thing in 2017, it's that undercard depth has never ever mattered as little as it does these days. Look at the cards for UFC 211 and UFC 218 then explain to me why UFC 210 and UFC 219 outdrew those. Card depth and card quality matters little to MMA fans these days, opening the door to instead debate how MMA has swung from "these are all great fights!" to "this FIGHTER is all I need to see on it!" This all brings us to UFC 220 which will likely divide MMA fans into two distinct categories:

1) This card has the biggest main and co-main event! I need to see this! Everything else is just a bonus!

2) This card sucks and if you remove the main and co-main event then it's not even worth watching on Fight Pass!

Neither opinion is wrong per se. If names and fights with numbers next to those names really get ya giddy then this show is not for you probably. It is VERY VERY top heavy and that's very true as it pertains to fights 3 to 11. At the same time, you are getting THE biggest fights possible the UFC could make at this time sans McGregor. The two best HWs and the two best LHWs on the planet who are eligible to fight (side eye to Jones) are fighting. That should be enough to sell you on this show with a lot of really well put together evenly matched fights on the undercard which have high potential for drama and violence. If you're one of those fight fans who bemoans the lack of stars then you can look at fights 3-11 as opportunities for some good young fighters to step up and elevate themselves. There actually are some damn good fights beneath the surface and I'm going to try to point some of those out.

Fights: 11

Debuts: 4 (Matt Bessette, Julio Arce, Dan Ige, Brandon Davis)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 3 (Charles Rosa OUT, Julio Arce IN vs Dan Ige/Arnold Allen OUT, Matt Bessette IN vs Enrique Barzola, Jamie Moyle OUT, no replacement sought for Maryna Moroz )

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC):  5 (Gian Villante, Stipe Miocic, Francis Ngannou, Volkan Oezdemir and Daniel Cormier)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC:  2 (Gleison Tibau, Gian Villante)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 7  (Volkan Oezdemir, Stipe Miocic, Francis Ngganou, Shane Burgos, Alexandre Pantoja, Enrique Barzola, Islam Makhachev)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2016 (in the UFC): 23-9-2

Stipe Miocic- 4-0 Francis Ngannou- 5-0 Daniel Cormier- 2-0-1 Volkan Oezdemir- 3-0 Calvin Kattar- 1-0 Shane Burgos- 3-0 Gian Villante- 1-3 Francimar Barroso- 1-2-1 Thomas Almeida- 1-2 Rob Font- 3-2

Too High Up- Gian Villante vs Francimar Barroso

Listen fellas, I get it. They're big guys and Villante is good for a brawl with the right opponent. Francimar Barroso is not the right opponent. He'll NEEEEEVER be the right opponent. This has all the makings of a fun round one where both guys trade, a second round where Barroso smothers VIllante and a third round where two big exhausted 205ers drag balls through some awful striking exchanges and sloppy takedowns. This fight is not a PPV main card worthy fight and I say that knowing full well that that there are not many options to take its place.

Down Too Low- Sabah Homasi vs Razak Al Hassan

An argument could be made for Alexandre Pantoja vs Dustin Ortiz which I could definitely hear you out on. The problem is that on a card with a bunch of genuinely massive human beings, Ortiz and Pantoja going from the prelims to the main card would probably just get them unneccessary angst from fight fans. Stupid but it is what it is. Sabah Homasi vs Razak Al Hassan will almost certainly be a tremendous fight of the night type brawl and I'd GLADLY welcome them onto this main card which could use a bit more oompah on it.

Stat Monitor for 2018:

Debuting Fighters (Current number: 0-1): Matt Bessette, Julio Arce, Dan Ige, Brandon Davis

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 0-0): Matt Bessette, Julio Arce

Second Fight (Current number: 1-3): 0

Cage Corrosion (2-3): Gleison Tibau

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- So did you know that Gleison Tiabu has been in the UFC since 2007 and he's NEVER headlined an event? Ever? Not even a free one! Dude's never even had a co-main spot! He's also JUST 34 years old which is perhaps even more amazing. I would've gone at least 10 years older without even batting an eyelash.

2- I want to use this opportunity to discuss how rare what it is we're getting here. For the first time in forever and a day, we're getting two title fights that genuinely feel like a battle of the best two fighters in their respective divisions. Francis Ngannou debuted in the UFC as an ultra raw rookie with high upside and all he's done is finish everyone he's fought from hype prospects to established veterans to top 5 heavyweights. Stipe Miocic could, legitimately, be on his way to building the greatest HW resume of the modern era with a win over Ngannou (and potentially Cain Velasquez if his body is actually capable of going through a fight camp). In the LHW division, Volkan Oezdemir has done nothing but beat top 10 LHWs since showing up in the UFC, two of those in violent dramatic fashion as an underdog. Until Jon Jones finds a way to not be some sort of fuck up, Daniel Cormier is the best LHW in the world. Simply put end of discussion. These two title fights exist in weight classes where convenience more often than not determines title shot opportunities---but these two fights are legitimately great.

3- Do NOT "get sucked" in the words of Bill Parcells. Simply put, don't even get worked into believing that either Stipe Miocic or Francis Ngannou are anything but excellent fighters in a division devoid of excellent fighters. These two guys are, without question, great fighters with skins on the wall and skills of the highest order. Don't believe Miocic was never good if he loses and don't believe Ngannou was exposed if he loses to the CHAMPION of the most hectic division in MMA.

4- Of note, Miocic has a reputation as being a fantastic wrestler. He is without question very good BUT.....the only stylistic matchup I can think of similar to what Miocic has here is when he fought JDS. He went 1-18 vs JDS in their first fight and gassed himself out spamming takedowns.

5- Curious to see how Ngannou responds to Stipe's speed because there's probably no HW who moves as well as Miocic does. It's a vastly different level of athleticism between he and Overeem.

6- We can all pretty much figure that Cormier is going to hit a wall soon. He's got decades of competing in combat sports in some form or fashion for quite a while but beyond that, his style of fighting is really not one designed for long term success. The general rule of thumb is that 37 or so is when the high level wrestler starts to break down and Cormier is 38 coming off a KO loss. This opens up a very unique challenge going into a fight vs a guy who hits really hard. Is Cormier basically burnt out from years of fighting and injuries? With Jon Jones likely to be back before we all know it, I'm assuming Cormier has to know that if he can get by Volkan, there's not really an immediate challenger who would prevent the big cash out fight vs Jon Jones.

7- DC does his best work in the clinch. Volkan seems to excel against the fence. You thinkin' what I'm thinkin' bout?

8- There are people who like to get all twisted and wrapped up in Volkan Oezdemir's UFC debut. Everybody knows it's on short notice and he gassed out. What most people DON'T know is that Volkan got the call while training to take a fight at HW so that probably had a lot to do with his general conditioning as well. He'll be at a serious disadvantage vs Cormier but I can't imagine it'll be AS bad as it looked vs OSP if we get into the 2nd or 3rd round.

9- TheAntiCool has predicted that 170 lbs is going to be the division where there's a heavy sense of upheaval with new people emerging and breaking into the top 10. I could see that but for me, I think it's 145 lbs where we're going to see a big changing of the guard. One of those figures who could potentially really take that step up is Shane Burgos. Burgos has some squintable Conor McGregor qualities, primarily in how good his hands are and how he can absorb punishment in exchange for pressure for a consistent clip before he finds you. When he hurts guys, he can either take them out or take them out of their gameplan enough to the point where he has you either 1) fighting at his pace and his range or 2) retreating and hoping he'll leave you alone long enough for you to do something to slow him down. Throw in a solid wrestling base, a great camp (Jimmie Rivera, Lyman Good etc etc) and seemingly solid cardio and you have some things that make you feel very confident in him going forward. ON THE OTHER HAND, there are some real Mike Perry qualities in his game which might make you want to hit the breaks. For starters, Charles Rosa gave him a lot of problem with volume and accurate strikes. Eventually Burgos got him when he needed to but the obvious story of the fight was that Charles Rosa had him figured out and Burgos was left trying to keep pace. You also always have to wonder about a fighter who marches forward, chin out  who relies on his power and combinations to win exchanges. Calvin Kattar, in a way at least, seemed more well rounded than Burgos in his fight vs Andre Fili back in July. Both guys are good FWs but Burgos has that It Factor where you just assume he's a guy destined for bigger things.

10- At this point, what do we say about Thomas Almeida? Anybody got any ideas? At 26 years old, Almeida has steamrolled every one he's supposed to steamroll and repeatedly and incessantly bonked his skull when he's gone upwards in the division. He didn't look bad vs Jimmie Rivera and had moments of success  BUT he was dropped seemingly any time Rivera landed cleanly and he struggled to exchange with Rivera without getting tagged. Rob Font is a bit like Rivera; the sort of guy who has all of the proverbial tools but simply can't get over the hump when he faces top competition.

11- Reminder that Sabah Homasi once ran off with a Bellator ring card girl after a show never to be seen again by Bellator.

12- Some of you guys might not have seen DWTCS (go watch it, it's fine and takes like an hr and 30 mins per episode) so lemme fill ya in a bit on some dudes who were on there who are debuting on this show:

Julio Arce- ROC champion and a guy who people have been saying would be in the UFC since about 2013. His two losses are to current UFC BW Brian Kelleher, trains with Jimmie Rivera and the crew at Tiger Schulman's. Pretty solid fighter although some may be higher than others on him. Beat Peter Petties on the show to get an eventual deal.

Dan Ige- Sort of came out of nowhere really. A solid Hawaiian fighter who is well rounded with good cardio. Fought Luis Gomez who is now the Titan FC featherweight champion on the show and beat him with a 3rd round RNC. Does seem to be a better fit for 135 lbs and I have concerns about how hittable he is.

Brandon Davis- Another fighter out of Alan Belcher's camp and you can see the Belcher influence in him. Sort of like a Jason Knight except his punches are a lot cleaner but he still takes plenty of damage and seems to relish getting into brawls. Dude had a tremendous fight to get a deal the night of against Austin Arnett. Didn't see a ton of grappling so that's a little worrisome.

Matt Bessette- Long time regional guy who fights on the East Coast, hits REALLY fucking hard and is well rounded given his 50 years in MMA. Lost to Kurt Holobaugh in a fight where he broke his hand/face but there's some controversy there as well.