Voyager Nearing Solar System Escape-But How Will We Know?
by Matthew Van Dusen
Dr. Merav Opher, a Boston University astrophysicist, is waiting patiently for a supremely distant radio signal to tell her everything has changed.
Someday soonâmaybe weeks or monthsâthe Voyager 1 spacecraft will send back data that will tell scientists it has left the solar system. The little 1,592-lb. probe will be the first of two working deep-space craft to cross our systemâs boundary, called the heliopause, and report back from interstellar space.
When it does, Opher, a member of the Voyager science team and an expert in how the solar system interacts with nearby interstellar space, will be one of the first to know.
Merav Opher: No, but when we saw the press release, a lot of The Voyager team folks started saying, âOh, this is happening.â And then I emailed [Voyager project scientist] Ed Stone and asked him, âShould I announce something?â He said, âNo, weâre not there yet.â This is the kind of bet that we have, we discuss among ourselves what is going on.
Txch: Do you have any idea when it will happen?
MO: I wonât even try to put a date on it. But based on my own models, we are very closeâvery, very close. If the data starts behaving like I think itâs doing, it is again telling us that we are very, very close.
Iâm organizing a session at the end of the year at the [American Geophysical Union (AGU)] and I keep thinking maybe weâll be able to announce it there. Iâll keep my fingers crossed. Itâs that close, I think. This is all based on my models, which are not that accurate.
Txch: What sort of changes in the data will you see when Voyager 1 leaves the solar system?
MO: This is a big debate between my colleagues and me. We had a conference in Switzerland a couple of months ago and we will have another one in the fall called âWhat Signatures We Will See When We Are Crossing The Heliopause.â So, what we are going to see is not clear. Itâs a bit of a guessing game.
The magnetic field inside the solar system points in a specific directionâitâs like a spiral. Outside the heliopause, the field is definitely not pointing in the same direction; we know itâs not a spiral. One clear signature we have left would be if we see a big rotation in the magnetic field direction. If we see something that dramatic, weâre out. But magnetic field data is very noisy and very hard to analyze. There is really only one person who can analyze it, so it takes a long time until we get the data.
Thatâs why weâre also looking at data from energetic particles. They are good messengers of whatâs happening, so you can usually tell the story before you measure the magnetic field. They travel farther and faster so if you want to know before we get there, usually the particles can tell you.
When we crossed the termination shock, which is that region where the solar wind slows from supersonic to subsonic, we thought the data signature would be very clear, but it wasnât. As Voyager approached, there were puzzles that made us question whether we were really there. That experience is making everyone a bit weary.
Txch: You said the air was âfrothyâ out there with plasma bubbles. Did that affect when you thought Voyager crossed the region?
MO: Definitely. All our ideas so far are based on old models of what happens at these distant boundaries. Itâs still widely debated by my colleagues and not completely accepted in the community whether the region is frothy. The paradigm is changing so much and we are looking for signatures to really declare whatâs happening.
If this theory is true, one thing that could happen is that particles that come from outside the heliosphere would have an easier time entering, so you would be sitting within this bubble and suddenly youâre looking at an enhancement of cosmic rays. This is what Voyager has seen. There is a big increase.
So, we think that this boundary with these bubbles is permeable. If you see drops of water in a permeable boundary, you will see those drops before you get there.
Txch: You could start detecting cosmic rays long before youâve crossed through?
MO: Right. Those particles will penetrate, but the questions are how much and how quickly will they penetrate? It makes sense within our scenario if the heliopause is more permeable and lets the rays come in much easier. We still donât have quantitative numbers and donât know exactly how they will increase. Weâre still trying to get our heads wrapped around that but, qualitatively, it seems to be going in that direction.
Txch: Is it possible there will be disagreement between scientists about when Voyager escapes?
MO: Yeah, most definitely this can happen. In 2003, there was disagreement about when Voyager crossed the termination shock. It was only announced a year and a half later when people agreed. Usually, the team tries to come to agreement, and I think this is what will happen here. I donât think there will be an announcement without the whole team agreeing. There will be a meeting to go over the data and everyone must agree that we crossed.
Txch: Once Voyager crosses, will data coming back be able to tell you how much cosmic radiation can penetrate the heliopause?
Txch: Once Voyager moves into the interstellar medium, is there anything more to learn?
MO: There are some limitations because no one ever imagined that Voyager would go this far. There are some instrument limitations to study certain questions we would like to in this environment. But we know very very little about the interstellar medium and weâve never been there before.
What is the level of turbulence in the medium? There are a lot of theories that think that itâs very turbulent. Weâll be able to measure the magnetic field directly. Where do heavy ions come from and in which direction do they flow? Even with limited instrumentation, Voyager will be able to answer questions like these.
Txch: Do you have champagne on ice for when everyone agrees that Voyager enters interstellar space?
MO: Thatâs a good idea. Maybe I should bring one to the AGU conference and have it in my pocket just in case. [Laughs.] Thereâs also the 35th anniversary of the Voyager mission in September and I plan to celebrate.
Top image: Courtesy NASA.
Matthew Van Dusen, Txchnologist's editor-in-chief, was a reporter for ten years at newspapers in Wyoming, Indiana and New Jersey, where he covered health care, the governmentâs response to Hurricane Katrina in Mississippi and government corruption. He is the former co-editor of Green Energy Reporter but is not Dutch. He tweets @matthewvandusen.












