Will the Boilers be Dancing
It has been an up and down season for the Purdue Boilermakers, look no further then the absolute drubbing they handed to Iowa 104-68 against the #17 Hawkeyes. The Boilers were scorching from long range going 19-34 from deep. Matt Painter's squad scored 61 points in the first half, but Purdue has been an entirely different team away from Mackey.
The win moves Purdue to 13-10, 6-6 in the Big Ten and 8th in the conference. CBS bracketology doesn't have the Boilers in the field and ESPN has Purdue as an 11th seed in the West in the play-in game with Memphis. These latest projections were before the Iowa game, but it's likely Matt Painter's squad needs to do some more to solidify another March Madness appearance.
Coming in to the Iowa game Purdue was 3-7 In Quad 1 games (top 30 at home, top 50 on a neutral court and top 75 on the road), 2-2 in Quad 2 (31-75 at home, 51-100 neutral court and 76-135 away), 4-1 in Quad 3 (76-100, 101-200 and 136-240) and 3-0 in Quad 4. The Boilers put themselves behind the eight ball in the non conference with the losses to Texas, Marquette (receiving votes), Florida State (now 8) and Butler (now 19). Painter's squad did beat VCU and crush Virginia but neither is ranked this week.
Not fairing better in non-conference hurt the Boilermakers with how tough the Big Ten has been this season. It has been next to impossible to win on the road in conference this season, but it has also meant plenty of chances to improve the resume. However, Matt Painter's team has been up and down. Mackey has been kind to the black and gold, only losing to Illinois and crushing #8 Michigan State (now 16) 71-42, but they've lost to Nebraska, Rutgers, Michigan, Maryland and Illinois on the road. Purdue's only road Big Ten win at Northwestern. That won't cut it.
The Boilermakers absolutely needed the Iowa win and did so in resounding fashion, but have plenty of work to do if they want to see themselves in the brackets in March. The 20 win mark has always been a de facto check mark for the power conference teams and they have 13 wins with 8 regular season games left. Hopefully the hot shooting performance tonight against the Hawkeyes can carry over.
What's left on the Purdue schedule is @IU, #22 Penn State, @OSU, @Wisky, Michigan, IU, @Iowa and Rutgers. Indiana, Ohio State and Michigan are behind Purdue in the current Big Ten standings but we've seen how tough it has been for teams to win on the road. Painter can't afford to lose a home game which would be four more wins for 17, including another top 25 win, but the Boilers are going to have to steal some road games.
Indiana is a big rivalry game this Saturday. The Hoosiers have lost their last three, two against ranked teams, but have beaten OSU and MSU at home. The Badgers really struggled to start the season but have bounced back in conference play, beating Maryland, OSU and PSU. The Buckeyes had a stretch where they lost 6 of 7 but have since won three in a row, including the big one at Michigan.
None of the road games will be a gimmie, and you can be sure the Hawkeyes will want revenge after getting shot out of the gym tonight. However, IU, OSU and Wisky have all had bad stretches. They're as desperate as Purdue are to try and lock up their own post season position. The fan in me wants to say Purdue can run the table but that seems unlikely. Going 6-2 would really go a long way to solidify their chances and would vault them in to the top half of the Big Ten final standings.
The game Saturday at IU will be a big tell for what will happen in the last eight games. If Purdue wins they should be able to pull out 6 of their last 8, but they've only beaten Northwestern on the road in conference to this point. I'd pencil in at Iowa for a loss and I think the Buckeyes defend home court, so can Painter defend Mackey, sweep IU and beat the Badgers in Madison.
In the ESPN brackets Wisconsin is an 8 seed, Penn State a 6 and Illinois a 7 in the South bracket; Ohio State an 8 and Maryland a 3 in the East; Iowa a 5, Michigan State a 3 and IU a 10 in Midwest; Michigan an 8, Rutgers a 7 and Purdue an 11 in the West. 11 teams projected in is a tough conference but means plenty of chances to improve the resume.
It's a transition year for the Boilermakers but the last few years Painter has shown he can get his team to play their best ball late in the season. Now's the time for the coach to work some magic again and hopefully the 104-68 win over the #17 team is something to build on and not just another schizophrenic performance at home that'll mean nothing when the black and gold hit the road.