#marketmicrostructure

There is a specific quietness to the market when the cost of money is high.

I spent years of my life in New York and Chicago, studying how markets break—how liquidity evaporates during stress tests and how order books thin out when uncertainty rises. Now, back in Brazil, I am watching a different kind of phenomenon: the weight of a 15% interest rate.

Today, the USD/BRL pair is trading near 5.51. It is a stable number, but it hides a massive tension. On one side, we have the global crypto market, with Bitcoin hovering near $86,800, promising a future of decentralized value. On the other side, we have the tangible, immediate reality of Brazilian fixed income offering 15% per year.

The Investor's Dilemma For the Brazilian investor, this is the ultimate test of conviction. Why take on the variance of the crypto market—with its slippage, transaction costs, and tail risks—when the state pays you handsomely to sit on your hands?

This is where the concept of "Risk Premium" becomes vital. My work at BlackRock taught me that you don't get paid for taking risk; you get paid for managing it. In this environment, the "premium" required to hold volatile assets is higher than ever.

The View from the Desk I am watching the spreads today. They are wider than usual on local exchanges. This is the market telling us that liquidity providers are demanding more compensation for their inventory risk. With the Fed signaling a "higher for longer" stance in the US, and Brazil holding the line, the liquidity that fuels parabolic runs is currently locked in government treasuries.

My name is Radames Belfort. At 58, I find myself at a unique intersection of my career—bridging the disciplined world of institutional finance with the emerging, often chaotic frontier of digital asset markets.

I was born in Belo Horizonte, but my professional and academic journey has taken me across continents. My foundation was built at the University of São Paulo (USP), but it was my time in the United States that truly shaped my risk management philosophy. I spent years diving deep into Finance at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) and focusing on Market Microstructure at New York University (NYU). These academic pursuits were not just theoretical; they were the bedrock of my tenure at BlackRock, where I learned that the market is not just about price—it is about liquidity, execution costs, and the hidden risks in the order book.

Now back in São Paulo, my role has evolved into that of an educator and researcher. I am not here to make wild predictions. My work focuses on the plumbing of the market: asset pricing, risk premia, and how macro variables influence the crypto spot market. I am interested in how liquidity gaps and transaction costs can destroy a portfolio's value long before a price drop does.

I am currently laying the groundwork for two major projects launching in April 2026: a new investment firm dedicated to rigorous, data-driven strategies, and an angel charity foundation to give back to the community.