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Mercury Music Prize 2025: Ranking The Contenders

My favourite time of year has arrived – the season of the Mercury Music Prize.

At the beginning of September, the twelve albums nominated for the 2025 prize were revealed and, as ever, served up a highly diverse and eclectic list of some of the best British and Irish music released over the last 12 months – a lot of which I didn’t predict at all. Each of these nominated records is now vying for the prestigious title of Album of the Year, the overriding criteria for which has greatly deviated throughout the award’s history.

Last year’s Prize felt like a bit of an open and shut case – while I was personally rooting for CMAT’s Crazymad For Me, my betting money and expectations firmly rested with eventual winner, English Teacher. This year however feels more unpredictable, with a few more under-the-radar picks from the judges making up this year’s shortlist. So – who do I think will win?

As I do each year, I’ve now listened to all 12 albums and tried to rank them based on what I think are their chances of winning. To be clear, this is not a “Worst-to-Best” countdown – this ranking is based solely on how likely I think they are to win the overall prize.

To determine this, I’ve considered:

The impact and artistic achievement attained by the album

The popularity of the artist

The level of critical acclaim the album has received

How similar albums have fared over the years

All clear? Good!

Without further ado, here’s my final thoughts and analysis on this year’s nominees.

12. People Watching by Sam Fender

I am a big Sam Fender fan and People Watching has become one of my most played records of 2025. That said, I just can’t see the Geordie Springsteen walking away with the Mercury Prize come Thursday night.

Firstly, he’s already a stadium-sized superstar who won’t gain anything from winning the overall prize. Secondly, his inclusion on this year’s shortlist just seems too heavily linked to the fact the ceremony is being held in the Utilita Arena in Newcastle for the first time, with the hometown hero a sure-fire way to sell some tickets. Cynical I know, but the Mercury Prize like anything in the music industry these days needs some sort of funding, so it can continue to exist.

Finally, while Sam’s record is filled with some great songs and iconic anthems, it just feels like less of an artistic achievement compared to some of the others on the list.

11. The Clearing by Wolf Alice

They may be one of Britain’s finest bands, but I also can’t see Wolf Alice walking out overall winners for several reasons.

Like Sam, the band are already hugely popular, with their first arena tour taking place at the end of this year and already selling well by all accounts. Additionally, they are already previous winners of the prize having won back in 2018 for their incredibly eclectic second album, Visions Of A Life.

With that only being seven years ago, and the band still earning further exposure through the award having been nominated for both The Clearing and their previous album Blue Weekend, I think a second win at this point in their career would be more than Wolf Alice need. So, for that, this is another one I’m calling as unlikely.

10. Transform Me Into A Fish by Martin Carthy

An album that has already made history, folk legend Martin Carthy’s inclusion on this year’s shortlist made him the oldest artist to ever be nominated for the prize. However, it is for exactly that reason why I think he won’t win.

While Transform Me Into A Fish is no doubt a wonderful record worthy of inclusion, with Martin Carthy crafting a vivid collection of traditional, sea shanty-inspired folk music, the prize has always been about driving the industry forward and recognising the now. With Martin very much at the tale end of his career, my gut says a younger artist will be favoured.

9. More by Pulp

The Sheffield Britpop legends are sadly another one I’d file under unlikely. While the band knocked it out of the park with this magnificent, string-tinged comeback record, with enigmatic frontman Jarvis Cocker at his poetic, storytelling best, their legacy is already well cemented.

Whilst winning their second Mercury Prize almost 30 years after their first one would make for a great story, like Wolf Alice they are a band who simply don’t need the further recognition at this point in their career. So despite this being, for me, one of the best records they’ve ever made, I don’t think another Mercury Prize win is on the cards this time around.

8. Fancy That by PinkPantheress

At just over 20 minutes long, this second mixtape from singer, songwriter and producer PinkPantheress is by far the shortest amongst this year’s nominees. With this being the case, I’m sure there are some album traditionalists irked by the record’s inclusion for such a prestigious prize. For me, while Fancy That is a fun project with great energy, production and use of samples, it does feel like one of the less inspired selections on this year’s shortlist.

Now you could argue the record epitomises the way music and albums are consumed in 2025, with the shorter runtime and the TikTok nature of the project capturing this current era like Mercury Prize winners of the past. But I would counter argue, given the state of the music industry today and how many new artists struggle to make a living, should this even be celebrated? I guess the judges will have to answer that come Thursday – for me, I expect them to go in a different direction.

7. EUSEXUA by FKA Twigs

One of my favourite dance/pop records of the year so far and probably my third favourite out of all the nominated albums on this year’s shortlist, the latest opus from the visionary FKA Twigs would certainly be a worthy winner of this year’s prize. Evocative and liberating, it’s filled with pulsating energy and plenty of career highlights. So, what is stopping her? Well, mostly just Twigs’ stature as an artist and her popularity.

For me, she is probably just too revered and too commercially successful globally to be chosen over some of the other contenders on this list, who would objectively gain more from winning the overall prize. That said, it’s great just to see EUSEXUA nominated, particularly after Twigs unjustly missed out on a nomination for Magdalene – which remains, for me, her best work.

6. Hamstrings & Hurricanes by Joe Webb

As Mercury Prize historians will know, jazz albums have typically not fared well, but Ezra Collective’s surprise win in 2023 for Where I’m Meant To Be was seen as a bit of a turning point. While a record like Joe Webb’s Hamstrings & Hurricanes may have been seen as the token jazz nomination in the past, now needs to be considered as a serious contender – especially in a year where jazz music seems more prevalent on the shortlist than it has in previous years, with more than one album from the genre selected.

That said though, while Joe Webb’s album is certainly accomplished and a deserving nominee, it lacks the crossover appeal of Ezra Collective’s triumphant 2023 record. If you are not a fan of jazz music, this isn’t the record to convert you. For that reason, my gut says Joe Webb won’t win on Thursday.

5. Afrikan Alien by Pa Salieu

Pa Salieu has been heavily hyped ever since his emergence back in 2018. On his sophomore album Afrikan Alien, the Coventry rapper and singer sounds like he’s starting to deliver on that promise, a passionate record that feels like it truly captures this particular moment of time in the UK. With this being the case, this is the first album on this year’s shortlist that feels like a genuine contender.

Having said that though, it isn’t a record without it’s flaws and while the message behind the bars can be powerful, the delivery and execution does leave you wanting at times. Comparing this to other rap records from Dave, Little Simz and Skepta that have all won the Mercury Prize in the last decade, it does feel below that very high standard. So, while it has a chance of winning, my gut says one of the next four stronger contenders will prevail.

4. Weirdo by Emma-Jean Thackray

The second jazz nomination on this year’s shortlist and the one I think has a genuine chance of winning the overall prize. Firstly, from a technical perspective, Weirdo is truly a staggering achievement, with Emma-Jean Thackray doing all vocals, production, mixing, recording and arrangements herself. Not only that, but she played pretty much every instrument on the record herself too - from guitars, drums and piano through to trumpets, trombones and tubas. Considering this, you have to think this is one album judges are seriously considering for the top prize.

I think from my side the only thing going against it is the strength of the next three contenders on this year’s shortlist and by comparison, Emma’s record feels noticeably patchier at 19 tracks and almost an hour in length. Still, a record that deserves to be celebrated and I wouldn’t be completely shocked to see it win on Thursday.

3. In Limerence by Jacob Alon

In the long history of the Mercury Music Prize, there has been one steadfast rule that has emerged – never bet against a debut album. First outings usually perform well and incredibly this year, this beautifully tender record from Scottish singer Jacob Alon is the only debut album on the shortlist. That factor alone puts it ahead of the others for me in terms of its chances of winning, especially with the judges seemingly leaning towards lesser-known picks in their overall shortlist selection too.

On top of that, In Limerence is just a great record. Wonderfully produced by Dan Carey who deserves his own prize at this point, Jacob’s voice is never short of captivating, with heavy comparisons to Radiohead’s Thom Yorke at points. All things considered, I fancy Jacob’s chances highly – and it may just be the strength of these next two albums that keep him off the podium.

2. EURO-COUNTRY by CMAT

With all the history that has been made during the Mercury Prize’s 34-year history of celebrating the best in British & Irish music, there is unbelievably still one thing that has never happened – an Irish artist has never won the overall prize. Considering the strength of Irish music not just in 2025 but in the last few years since the turn of the decade, this is a fact that SURELY has to change this year. Thankfully, they have two artists on the shortlist this year who thoroughly deserve such an honour.

Firstly, it’s back-to-back nominations for Ciara Mary-Alice Thompson who continues to be one of the artists of the 2020s so far. While EURO-COUNTRY isn’t quite as strong as its predecessor for me, it’s still a record filled with instantly timeless songs and relatable, honest songwriting. From one of the year’s defining singles in Take A Sexy Picture of Me to more tender moments like Lord, Let That Tesla Crash, the full spectrum of CMAT’s songwriting talent is on full display here.

Having missed out last year, a CMAT win does feel like it would be a popular choice – beloved by fans and critics alike, everyone simply adores her. At time of writing, she is also heading into Thursday’s ceremony as the bookies’ favourite. Will 2025 be her year? For me, there’s only one band that can stop her.

1. Romance by Fontaines D.C.

Way back in 2006, Arctic Monkeys won the Mercury Prize for their classic debut, Whatever People Say I Am, That’s What I’m Not. At the time I remember there being a lot of debate as to whether they needed the win, what with how well the album had sold and their already clear, upward trajectory. The reason they won though was simply this: the album’s cultural impact was so seismic, that a win for any other record that year would’ve felt disingenuous. In 2006, it was the undisputed Album of the Year.

Fast forward to 2025, and Romance by Fontaines D.C. feels similarly defining when looking back at the last 12 months. While Charli XCX’s Brat reigned supreme over Summer 2024, there is simply no record that seems to have had the cultural impact of Romance from August 2024-August 2025. From the band’s sold-out arena tour at the end of 2024 and Finsbury Park show in summer 2025, to their football shirts being seen everywhere during 2025 summer festival season, to standout singles like Starburster and Favourite being used in TV shows and adverts, the album’s presence has been simply inescapable.

And while yes, technically the prize is meant to be just about the music featured on the album, surely the judges have to consider the far-reaching impact of that music too? But then even if it is just based on the music - is there a song more fitting for these times than In The Modern World on this year's shortlist? I think not.

Now there are some people who will say Fontaines shouldn’t win as this is their worst record, or that their success off the back of the record means they don’t need the win. While that thinking could indeed steer the judges onto another album on the shortlist instead, I do think Fontaines deserve the recognition of being the Mercury Prize’s first Irish winner. Not just for Romance and what a wonderful record it is, but also for how they have helped usher in this golden age of contemporary Irish music.

For me, this feels like a year where the judges shouldn’t overthink the decision – Romance is the Album of the Year for 2025 by most metrics. With the record having already won the Irish Choice Prize back at the start of the year too, here’s hoping the Mercury judges reach the same conclusion and make history on Thursday night.

Agree or disagree with my thoughts? Let me know who you think will win this year’s prize!

And remember you can watch the 2025 Mercury Prize be presented on Thursday 16th October on BBC Four from 9:30pm.

You can also look back at our thoughts on Romance as we named it our 2024 Album of the Year below.

Shine On  - Joe Webb , 2022.

British , b. 1976 -

Art: Collage by Joe Webb

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“What Orwell feared were those who would ban books. What Huxley feared was that there would be no reason to ban a book, for there would be no one who wanted to read one. Orwell feared those who would deprive us of information. Huxley feared those who would give us so much that we would be reduced to passivity and egoism. Orwell feared that the truth would be concealed from us. Huxley feared the truth would be drowned in a sea of irrelevance. Orwell feared we would become a captive culture. Huxley feared we would become a trivial culture, preoccupied with some equivalent of the feelies, the orgy porgy, and the centrifugal bumblepuppy. As Huxley remarked in Brave New World Revisited, the civil libertarians and rationalists who are ever on the alert to oppose tyranny "failed to take into account man's almost infinite appetite for distractions." "In 1984", Huxley added, "people are controlled by inflicting pain. In Brave New World, they are controlled by inflicting pleasure." In short, Orwell feared that what we hate will ruin us. Huxley feared that what we love will ruin us.”

~Neil Postman