#indianpowersector

📢 Attention investors! Tata Power, one of India's leading integrated power companies, has positioned itself as a key player in the Indian power sector with its focus on renewable energy and sustainable development. With Tata Power's share price steadily increasing over the past year and its renewable energy capacity growing significantly, investors are wondering what the share price target for 2025 might be.

Factors such as renewable energy growth, regulatory changes, economic growth, and international markets may affect the performance of Tata Power's shares in the coming years. However, many analysts remain optimistic about the company's future and believe that the share price may continue to rise.

As with any investment, there are both risks and potential rewards associated with investing in Tata Power shares. The decision to invest should be made after careful consideration of personal investment goals, risk tolerance, and an evaluation of the company's financial performance and potential for growth.

In Petition No. 39 of 2026, the Uttarakhand Electricity Regulatory Commission has dealt with Uttarakhand Power Corporation's application under Section 86(1)(b) for approval of a 1,320 MW round-the-clock, coal-based long-term procurement through tariff-based competitive bidding. The order records the sequence: UPCL's load forecasts and the CEA's resource-adequacy projections consistently show the state needing to fill a deficit that committed capacity will not meet in time.

An earlier tender approach did not yield plants that could be commissioned within the deficit window; and UPCL's board resolved to float a fresh tender for 1,320 MW long-term alongside 500 MW of medium-term procurement already approved separately.

Why it matters

The Commission has allowed the process to proceed on conditions with teeth. UPCL must place before the Commission the specific analysis on which its board sanctioned the 1,320 MW figure — an affidavit asserting approval is not enough — and must submit the draft power purchase agreement for prior regulatory approval after board clearance, with an explicit bar on executing it before that approval is granted.

The deviations UPCL sought in the standard bidding documents were considered alongside.

The details

For generators with untied coal capacity, a 1,320 MW, 25-year buyer just stepped into the market.

The order also records the Commission's insistence that the standard bidding documents be followed with only such deviations as it approves — keeping the eventual tariff adoption under Section 63 clean — and the 500 MW medium-term leg gives UPCL bridge supply while the 25-year plants are built.

Who is affected

UPCL faces the immediate task of submitting the board's specific analysis behind the 1,320 MW figure, plus the draft PPA, before any contract can be executed.

Generators with untied coal capacity now have a substantial new 25-year buyer in the market, a significant demand signal for the thermal generation sector.

What's next

Watch for UPCL's submission of the board analysis and draft PPA to the Commission, the next procedural steps before the tender can proceed.

The 500 MW medium-term procurement will give UPCL bridge supply while the 25-year plants are built, a timeline worth tracking alongside the main tender.

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Power for the 13:00–13:30 window on 8 July cleared at Rs 249.98 per MWh in the day-ahead auction on the Indian Energy Exchange — 25 paise a unit. At one o'clock, sellers offered 55,431 MWh against purchase bids of just 7,092 MWh. The hour before, the clearing price was Rs 300.59; the hour after, Rs 275.23.

At the other end of the same day, the midnight hour cleared at about Rs 5,000 per MWh — Rs 5 a unit — so the market paid twenty times more for power at midnight than at lunchtime. Across the full day the exchange traded 173,773 MWh at a simple average of Rs 3,290 per MWh and a volume-weighted average of Rs 3,206.

Why it matters

The pattern is the solar mid-day glut in its purest form yet in this monsoon: sell offers swelled past 55,000 MWh through hours 12 to 15 while buy interest fell below 8,100 MWh, and prices collapsed to the mid-day trough before recovering into the evening ramp.

The grid's own frequency log confirms the surplus was physical, not just financial — the system ran above 50.05 Hz for roughly a quarter of the day.

The details

The trough was no single-block accident: every fifteen-minute block from noon to three cleared below Rs 700 per MWh, and sell offers exceeded buy bids in each of them by margins of six to eight times, keeping the auction pinned near its effective floor for three full hours.

Who is affected

Buyers purchasing power during the midday hours benefited from prices as low as 25 paise a unit, a fraction of the midnight rate.

Generators offering into the midday market faced a glut of supply that pinned prices near the effective floor for three straight hours.

What's next

Watch whether this pattern of extreme midday-to-midnight price swings persists as the monsoon progresses and solar output continues to saturate daytime demand.

Continued monitoring of the frequency band excursions will indicate whether the physical surplus behind these prices remains a recurring feature of the grid.

The Central Electricity Authority's Chief Electrical Inspectorate has issued an advisory to the managing directors of all discoms and to all electricity consumers on the safe and judicious use of electricity, citing the India Meteorological Department's forecast of above-normal temperatures due to El Niño conditions. The advisory points to recent fire incidents and air-conditioner blasts in Delhi, Noida, Lucknow, Indore and Cuttack, and asks consumers to keep connected load within sanctioned limits, run air-conditioners at 24 degrees, and asks discoms to monitor transformer and cable loading.

We verified the meteorology independently: the US agency NOAA declared El Niño on 11 June 2026 with the key Pacific index at +1.7 degrees by mid-June, and the World Meteorological Organization said on 4 July that a strong event is developing through July–September, with below-normal rainfall forecast across the Indian subcontinent.

Why it matters

That is the pivot for the power sector. Today's story is surplus — 25-paise midday power, zero shortage, a quarter of the day above 50.05 Hz. But the folder's own hydrology is already stressed, and a weak second half of the monsoon would eat the hydro season and lift cooling demand into October.

The advisory reads like housekeeping; its footnote is the sector's biggest forward risk.

The details

The advisory also asks discoms to plan replacement of transformers and cables before loading reaches threshold limits, a supply-side instruction that quietly concedes distribution networks, not generation, are where an El Niño summer would bite first even in a surplus year.

Who is affected

Discoms across the country now face an explicit directive to monitor transformer and cable loading, ahead of a potential El Niño-driven heat and demand spike.

Consumers are asked to keep connected load within sanctioned limits and run air-conditioners at 24 degrees, a direct behavioral ask tied to the forecast risk.

What's next

Watch how the July-September El Niño event develops and whether below-normal rainfall materialises across the Indian subcontinent as WMO forecasts.

Continued monitoring of hydro reservoir levels and cooling demand into October will show whether the sector's current surplus gives way to genuine stress.

Two Navratna companies signed up on Tuesday to build a 1,080 MW coal plant for making aluminium

NLC India Limited, the lignite and power Navratna under the coal ministry, and National Aluminium Company, the mines-ministry Navratna, signed a joint venture agreement on 8 July for a 4x270 MW coal-based captive thermal power plant at Angul, Odisha, in the presence of Union Coal and Mines Minister G. Kishan Reddy.

The venture is a 50:50 equity split; it will develop, finance, construct, own and operate the 1,080 MW station, whose output is meant for NALCO's energy-hungry aluminium operations — smelting is among the most power-intensive industrial processes, and captive supply insulates it from grid tariffs and open-access charges.

Why it matters

The signing was attended by NLC's chairman (additional charge) Sanoj Kumar Jha, NALCO chairman Brijendra Pratap Singh, and finance and projects directors of both companies. The announcement reached the exchanges through NLC's disclosure the same evening.

The timing carries its own commentary: the same day's despatch records show the national optimiser standing down pit-head coal at midday and exchange power at 25 paise a unit — yet round-the-clock industrial load, which cannot ride on midday solar alone, is still contracting new coal for the 2030s.

The details

No project cost, commissioning schedule or coal-linkage details were disclosed in the release.

For NLC the venture extends a pit-head power franchise beyond lignite into Odisha coal country; for NALCO it hedges the single largest cost line in aluminium, where power is roughly two-fifths of smelting cost.

Who is affected

NALCO gains a captive power source insulating its aluminium smelting operations from grid tariffs and open-access charges, addressing its single largest cost line.

NLC India extends its pit-head power franchise beyond lignite into Odisha's coal country through this new joint venture.

What's next

Watch for further disclosure on project cost, commissioning schedule and coal-linkage details as the venture progresses.

The contrast between this new coal commitment and the same day's midday solar-driven coal backdown will remain worth tracking as a signal of how round-the-clock industrial demand differs from grid-scale power economics.

UPPCL's statutory public notice, published after the UP Electricity Regulatory Commission's order on the discoms' true-up, review and revenue petitions, sets out the approved schedule. Urban domestic consumers outside the lifeline category pay a fixed charge of Rs 110 per kW a month and an energy charge of Rs 7.35 per unit before subsidy; after subsidy the payable rate steps from Rs 5.50 to Rs 6.50 depending on the slab.

The commission bridged the discoms' revenue gap from accumulated regulatory surpluses rather than a rate increase, approving about Rs 1.14 lakh crore of revenue requirement against roughly Rs 1.19 lakh crore sought; the energy minister has put the FY27 subsidy at Rs 20,400 crore, up from Rs 17,100 crore last year. Consumers may separately see a negative fuel surcharge of about 4.4 per cent on July bills.

One number from the month's supply data belongs beside the celebration: UP recorded the country's largest June peak shortfall — 524 MW unmet at its 33,197 MW maximum. Rates are stable; the afternoon of the hottest day is not yet.

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The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister released Working Paper 53, "The Duck and The Camel", on 7 July. Authors Sanjeev Sanyal and Satvik Dev argue that solar has pinned midday prices to the floor and pushed the stress into the evening: on an average May day, the exchange's lowest price fell from Rs 2.81 a unit in 2023 to Rs 1.11 in 2026, while the evening peak rose from Rs 8.08 to Rs 9.71 — a spread of Rs 8.60, held down only by the Rs 10 ceiling.

The folder's own market files show the pattern surviving into the monsoon, when clouds are supposed to soften it. For power delivered on 7 July, the day-ahead market cleared at Rs 400.11 per MWh — 40 paise a unit — in the 1 pm hour, and at Rs 7,374.81 in the 10 pm hour.

Why it matters

The real-time market touched the Rs 10,000 per MWh ceiling in the midnight hour, and intraday contracts for the 10 pm and 11 pm hours traded at the full cap.

The camel is the paper's winter warning: in January the midday trough has now sunk below the night-time floor — about 143 GW against 151 GW this year — so the grid's quietest hour is no longer 3 am but 1 pm.

The details

Meanwhile the May evening ramp has doubled from 36 GW in 2023 to 74 GW, and the morning ramp-down has nearly tripled to 53 GW.

The paper says flattening half of one summer evening's climb needs about 130 GWh of discharge, against a battery-plus-pumped-hydro fleet that discharged 23.8 GWh a day in May. The market data in this folder suggests the arbitrage paying for that storage is now available even in July.

Who is affected

Storage developers and flexible generators stand to benefit from an arbitrage spread that persists even during the monsoon, when the price gap was expected to narrow.

Grid planners and policymakers face a structural challenge that the working paper frames clearly: the system's stress point has shifted from generation capacity to timing.

What's next

Watch whether battery-plus-pumped-hydro discharge capacity scales toward the roughly 130 GWh needed to flatten even half of a summer evening's demand climb.

The paper's winter warning about the midday trough sinking below the night-time floor is a signal to track as the seasons turn.

Grid-India's renewable energy centre report for 6 July records solar curtailment of 3.95 million units and wind curtailment of 0.11 million units, both in Rajasthan. Every other state and central pooling station line reads "No Curtailment".

Why it matters

Compare the summer: the advisers' working paper puts combined curtailment at about 677 million units in April and 747 million units in May — roughly 24 GWh on an average May day.

The details

The waste and the want are two hours apart on the same chart. Monday's renewables peaked at 85,514 MW before noon; by 10 pm the intraday market was printing at the Rs 10,000 cap.

Who is affected

Storage that shifted even the curtailed 4 GWh across those hours would have earned nearly the full spread; in May, it would have had six times the material.

What's next

Even in the cloudy season, the midday grid has more energy than takers; the monsoon has merely narrowed the problem to the sunniest state. When the skies clear in September, the May numbers are the ones to watch again.