The Northern Region is heading toward a hard winter, and the system operator has issued one of its clearest advisories yet: states must secure their power in advance. For years, the power exchange has acted as a reliable last-minute fallback. This winter, that assumption no longer holds.

Demand–Supply Gaps Are Growing Before Winter Starts

Fresh reviews from the 236th and 237th OCC meetings show widening mismatches between anticipated and actual demand across multiple states. Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, and even traditionally stable Uttarakhand have posted 5%+ deviations in both energy and peak requirements.

October alone highlighted the volatility:

Rajasthan’s peak deviation exceeded 25%

Haryana approached 7%

Delhi undershot projections by double digits

The same patterns appeared in September and continue into early winter projections. With such fluctuations, real-time scheduling becomes riskier and the power exchange’s buffer role narrows.

Grid Planners See Tight Margins Ahead

The OCC has cautioned states not to assume market liquidity during evening peaks in December and January. Two emerging issues stand out:

• Sharper winter evening peaks driven by overlapping industrial, commercial, and household loads. • Corridor congestion, especially across the Ballia–Sohawal stretch and parts of the Rajasthan–UP interface, which are already running heavily loaded.

In such conditions, the exchange cannot serve as an infinite safety valve. Liquidity could disappear in critical hours, leaving states exposed if they rely too heavily on day-ahead and real-time markets.

A Grid Running With Thin Redundancy

The OCC minutes highlight structural vulnerabilities that complicate winter operations:

Islanding schemes remain uncommissioned

AUFLS feeder mapping is incomplete

Generator testing compliance is weak

Fog-season tripping continues in Punjab

Rising fault levels persist in the Ludhiana–Moga belt

A system with thin redundancy is less capable of absorbing the sudden deviations typical of winter evenings.

States Need to Contract Early—Not Improvise Late

The message from the system operator is direct:

• Tie up long-term and bilateral capacity early • Secure short-term arrangements well ahead of peak months • Use the exchange only as a balancing tool

The Northern grid has handled tight winters before, but this season is different. With demand volatility rising, corridors stressed, and operational protections not fully in place, the risks are higher. Whether the grid holds steady and consumers remain comfortable will depend on how seriously states act on this warning.