Will Personal Clouds replace Personal Computers?
The cloud is the new PC, according to a recent Gartner study. Gartner predicts that cloud-based computing will oust personal computers by 2014. By fitting this situation into the snowclone "______ is the new _____", they mean cloud-based computing from mobile devices is set to replace traditional personal computers as Americans' dominant mode of Internet access. There is no reason the personal cloud has to replace the personal computer; the two could co-exist, and most likely will during the long period of transition ahead. "Out with the old and in with the new" is much easier for those on the supply side to rally behind. From small businesses to Forbes 500 enterprises, the business technology demand side rarely demands updates at the rate which upgrades appear. Tech is advancing faster than businesses can justify making the switch. Of course, the impracticality of investing in every new technology is the very situation being addressed by cloud computing: you no longer have to buy the product. You buy the service, and the updates come out of the supplier's pocket. Though cloud has been most noticeably successful with consumers (rather than organizations), organizations will follow.Gartner predicted that personal cloud services will be integrated into 90% of all connected consumer devices by the end of next year. The transitions are coming incrementally, not with outright replacement but inclusion of cloud technology into personal computers. The real challenge to cloud adoption is convincing enterprises and small businesses that it is to their advantage to make the change, but that making the change will be of any monetary benefit. There are plenty of canaries in the mine already (if you consider IBM a canary), but so far, they have all come out singing. Our next long post will discuss the biggest hurdle facing cloud computing in the business technology realm: demonstrating worth and necessity. Check out "Cloud ROI: The Missing Link" in today's Information Week for more about the lag in cloud adoption among those who stand to gain the most.
