Arguments About The Future
You probably won’t find proof that something will definitely happen. There is nearly always an element of uncertainty with Future Fact, which makes it a misnomer.
If there is power and desire for something to happen, that something will happen
Understanding that someone not only has the power, but also the desire, to do something, can be a profound advantage; you can predict their behaviour. If you do not adjust your approach to suit that predictable behaviour, the consequences can be profound.
On September 30th 1938, Britain’s Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain returned from a meeting with Hitler. Chamberlain claimed that he had ‘secured peace in our time’ by negotiating with the Nazis. Chamberlain and his government knew that the Nazis had developed enough military power to invade countries in Europe. The government also knew that Hitler desired to invade countries. However, they convinced themselves that Hitler would not start another war so soon after the devastation of World War 1. They settled for short-term peace, allowing Hitler more time to prepare for war. If the government had applied the rule of power + desire = will probably happen, the history of Europe could have been very different.
If the antecedents are present, the natural consequences will happen.
This line of argument is again based on using our past experience to predict the future. If there are no clouds in the sky, it probably won’t rain soon. Some antecedents/natural consequences are so predictable that they feel like certainties rather than probabilities. However, to effectively argue, you must remember that antecedents and natural consequences are persuasive, not certainties. The probability of an antecedent leading to a natural consequence varies from feeling like completely certain to feeling like completely uncertain.
Examples
Nearly Certain
Antecedent – Cars driving too fast on icy roads
Natural Consequence – Accident
Antecedent – study hard for a test
Natural Consequence – do well in the test
Antecedent – eating 7000 calories per day
Natural Consequence – gain weight
These arguments can be manipulated for persuasive effect. The cars in the first example could have specialized ice tyres.
Studying hard might not lead to good results for a variety of reasons.
Olympic athletes regularly consume 10,000+ calories per day without gaining weight.
How to Use It
Dr. King uses both Past Fact and Future Fact in his Letter from Birmingham Jail
I hope the church as a whole will meet the challenge of this decisive hour. But even if the church does not come to the aid of justice, I have no despair about the future. I have no fear about the outcome of our struggle in Birmingham, even if our motives are at present misunderstood. We will reach the goal of freedom in Birmingham and all over the nation, because the goal of America is freedom. Abused and scorned though we may be, our destiny is tied up with America’s destiny. Before the pilgrims landed at Plymouth, we were here. Before the pen of Jefferson etched the majestic words of the Declaration of Independence across the pages of history, we were here. For more than two centuries, our forebears labored in this country without wages; they made cotton king; they built the homes of their masters while suffering gross injustice and shameful humiliation – and yet out of a bottomless vitality they continued to thrive and develop. If the inexpressible cruelties of slavery could not stop us, the opposition we now face will surely fail. We will win our freedom because the sacred heritage of our nation and the eternal will of God are embodied in our echoing demands.
Dr. Martin Luther King (1963) Letter from Birmingham Jail
If the inexpressible cruelties of slavery could not stop us, the opposition we now face will surely fail.
In this line, Dr. King mixes past and future fact to say that if the past fact (overcoming slavery) occurred, which was much more difficult, terrible, and unlikley than their aim (civil rights), their aim is likely to happen.
We will win our freedom because the sacred heritage of our nation and the eternal will of God are embodied in our echoing demands.
In the last line, Dr. King used the Future Fact technique of arguing that power and desire will lead to something happen. The desire is shown by the ‘demands’ and the ‘power’ is shown by ‘God’.
