#fridayobservations

4.08.2022: With less than an hour left in the trading day, the Dow remains in positive territory while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq struggle in the red. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury hit a three year high today exceeding 2.7% as the Fed's hawkish stance is playing out in the market. WTI oil is down 25% from its peak of $130 on March 30th as reported in Barron's. Elon Musk made a large investment in Twitter this week and joined the board of directors.

The U.S. Senate approved Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to become the 116th justice of the Supreme Court and the first black female justice. Two men arrested in California possessed enough Fentanyl to kill 4.7 million people. According to Fox News, the DEA is warning of a "nationwide spike" in Fentanyl related mass overdoses as it says the drug is killing Americans at an "unprecedented rate." How can we allow a drug that is 50-100 times more potent than morphine to proliferate in the U.S.? A breaking story today relates to two men posing as Homeland Security infiltrating the Secret Service. Details are emerging including that one of the men is linked to the Pakistani intelligence service.

Atrocities in Ukraine continue to traumatize the world as the details emerge of yet another attack today on innocent civilians at a train station in Kramatorsk that killed at least 50 people, including 5 children. President Zelensky's decry says it all "evil that knows no bounds."

Shanghai, a city of 25 million, is in complete lockdown due to Covid-19 with people sleeping in their offices. Are we facing future lockdowns in the U.S.? Not sure if Americans will obey again.

Tiger is in the hunt at Augusta!

4.01.2022: The stock market continues to climb back from correction portending lows. It is trading relatively flat today although the Dow, S&P500, and Nasdaq are in green territory with about an hour left in the trading day. The stock market remains fertile ground for investors even with the recent gyrations.

U.S. employers added 431,000 jobs in March, unemployment fell to 3.6%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4%. Women jumping into the labor force accounted for the bulk of the increase in jobs, and that is a good sign as well as the revision upward of 95,000 of the January and February figures. While the strong labor report demonstrates a resilient U.S. economy, inflation concerns continue to prevail, and a Federal Reserve move of 50 basis points is highly likely next month. Additional rate hikes totaling 200 to 225 basis points, or 2.0% to 2.25%, are virtually baked in for the remainder of the year. The Federal Reserve is playing catch up to runaway inflation approaching 8.0%.

Buying a new home continues to get more expensive. Home prices are rising, and the average 30-year mortgage rate is hovering at 4.5% which is well over 100 basis points, or 1.0%, from this time last year. Slim inventories of homes factor in as well.

On the political front, Washington is working on retirement savings reforms through the Secure Act 2.0 which is critical when roughly a quarter of U.S. adults do not have retirement savings. Confirmation of the next Supreme Court Justice is likely next week, and the Hunter Biden saga continues to have legs. Payments from Chinese state-owned entities do warrant further investigation. If there is nothing there, then so be it. Title 42 expires today. Senators Sinema and Kelly are apparently pushing the administration to address the border crisis. Perhaps if they held back a few of their party line votes in a 50-50 Senate, their voices would be heard. Releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserves for the next six-months seems like a patch. The U.S. has been energy independent in the past - why not now? Should we start talking about U.S. Oligarchs? That terminology is not in the mainstream, but perhaps we should pay attention to the political overtones.