Jill Had The Baby! Frederick Michael Dillard arrived via planned C–Section on July 7, 2022. The Dillards just announced his arrival on their blog.

Dillard Family Facebook

He looks a lot like Sam!

I'm not an OB/GYN, so I don't know what the exact definition of an "Emergency C–Section" is, but it certainly doesn't sound like it was an emergency. Sounds like Jill had been planning to deliver via C–Section, and that it was scheduled for a particular date, but then it got moved up for some reason. Maybe she went into labor—but, it really could've been any number of things. It doesn't sound like she labored for awhile and, during labor, urgently and unexpectedly had to have a C–Section, which is what I think of as an "Emergency C–Section."

On July 7, 2022, 5:16 PM, Jill (Duggar) + Derick Dillard had their 3rd Child (and 3rd Son), Frederick Michael Dillard. "Freddy," as he will be called, joins Older Brothers Israel David (7) and Samuel Scott (5). Jill + Derick announced the birth on July 11th, via their blog.

Read on for Freddy's impact on Jill + Derick's and the Duggar Data!

When Was Jill's Due Date?

Based on a Baby Registry, Jill's Due Date w/ Freddy was suspected to be July 23, 2022. Though the registry was never verified by, e.g., Jill or Derick linking to it on social media, Duggar Data believes it to be legitimate for three reasons:

First, Baby Registries have historically been reliable sources for Due Dates among Duggar. (Unlike Wedding Registries, which aren't at all reliable for Wedding Dates!) See the Baby Registries for Addison, Bella, Garrett, and Truett, all of which listed the actual Due Date, confirmed later by other, non–registry sources.

Second... A lot of items were purchased from Jill's registry, followed quickly by social media posts about her baby shower.

Finally, the Due Date on the registry (July 23rd) is consistent with all other available information. Prior to Freddy's Birth, Jill + Derick said she was due in "July." So, July 23rd is obviously consistent with that. Then, after his birth (on July 7th), they said that he was "a little early," which is consistent with a Due Date later in July, like the 23rd.

Given all of this, Duggar Data will use July 23, 2022 as Freddy's Due Date, and considers that more–or–less "confirmed."

Timing of Pregnancy Announcement

After a loss in October 2021, Jill + Derick announced Pregnancy #3* on February 27, 2022. Due on July 23rd, Jill was 134 Days Along (or 19 Weeks, 1 Day), at the time.

Effect on Jill + Derick's Data—

Other than Freddy's, Jill + Derick have announced 2 Pregnancies—Israel's at 64 Days Along, and Sam's at ~83 Days Along. Taking the average... 74 Days Along was "typical" for them, pre–Freddy. With Freddy's [much–later] announcement factored in, it's now "typical" for Jill + Derick to announce at 94 Days Along (+20 Days).

(Note—Yes, they also announced a loss in 2021; however, they had already lost the baby, by then. It was a Loss Announcement, rather than a Pregnancy Announcement. Now... If they'd announced, and then suffered a loss, that Pregnancy Announcement would count.)

Effect on Duggar Family Data—

Prior to Freddy, your typical Duggar Couple announce a pregnancy at 96 Days Along. Factoring Freddy in, that shifts ever–so–slightly to 97 Days Along (+1 Day).

Timing of Sex Reveal

Jill + Derick did Freddy's Sex Reveal on March 23, 2022—again, via their family blog. Based on a July 23rd Due Date, Jill would've been 158 Days Along (22 Weeks, 4 Days), at the time.

Effect on Jill + Derick's Data—

The Dillard–Duggars did Sex Reveals for Israel and Sam, as well. At Israel's, Jill was 126 Days Along; at Sam's, she was ~124 Days Along. Doing the math... Until Freddy, a "typical" Sex Reveal for the Dillard–Duggars happened at 125 Days Along. Factoring Freddy in, it shifts to 136 Days Along (+10 Days).

Effect on Duggar Family Data—

Until Freddy, it was Duggar–typical to do the Sex Reveal, if one was done at all, at 150 Days Along. Factoring Freddy in, that shifts a bit to 151 Days Along (+1 Day). Also, both pre– and post–Freddy, your typical Duggar Couple did do a Sex Reveal, prior to birth. So far, the only GrandDuggars that didn't have one are Gideon Forsyth and the Seewald Kids (Spurgeon, Henry, Ivy, and Fern).

Timing of Delivery (vs. Due Date)

Jill's Due Date was July 23, 2022. Freddy arrived on July 7, 2022—so, he was 16 Days Early.

Effect on Jill + Derick's Data—

Jill has now delivered late (Israel; 13 Days Late), early (Frederick; 16 Days Early), and roughly on–time (Sam; ~3 Days Late). After Israel and Sam, Jill's "average" delivery was 8 Days Late. Factoring in her last delivery, it shifts to On Time, 0 Days Late or Early (–8 Days).

Effect on Duggar Family Data—

Prior to Freddy, your typical Duggar Couple welcomed their child 2 (1.74) Days Early. Factoring Freddy in, it's still 2 Days Early (2.33)—technically a marginal shift, but No Significant Change.

Labor & Delivery Details

Freddy was born via a scheduled / planned C–Section. When they announced his birth, Jill + Derick mentioned: "Frederick was set to arrive later in July, but he decided he wanted to come a little early ..., so we had our planned C-section a bit before originally planned."  

Birthweight & Length

At birth, Baby Freddy weighed 7 Pounds, 6 Ounces, and measured 20" Long. That's pretty small, compared to his two brothers! Israel and Samuel each weighed 9 Pounds, 10 Ounces, at birth, and were 23" and 22" Long, respectively. Prior to Freddy, Jill + Der's "typical" was, thus, 9 Pounds, 10 Ounces, and 22.5" Long. Factoring Freddy in, it's now 8 Pounds, 14 Ounces (–12 Oz.) and 21.67" Long (–0.8").

Effect on Procreative Pace (PP)

Freddy actually doesn't impact Jill + Derick Procreative Pace, since he's a rainbow baby and there's a known Loss Data for the previous pregnancy. As a result, his Child Spacing is a Post–Loss Spacing—and thus, it counts toward the Average Post–Loss Spacing, used to forecast post–miscarriage, rather than toward PP.

Generally, a couple's Procreative PP is based on all Non–Firstborn, Non–Post Loss Spacings. For Jill + Derick, that would include the Child Spacings for Sam and River (Theoretical Based on Due Date). However, Jill + Derick openly acknowledged that they'd used birth control, prior to conceiving River. As a result, River's Spacing isn't representative of their "natural" pace—and thus, isn't factored in to their PP. We're left just with their Israel–to–Sam Spacing, which is 731 Days (Adjusted for Prior C–Section), for their PP.

Duggar Data will forecast Dillard–Duggar #4 with that Procreative Pace (PP). However, please keep in mind that, if Jill + Derick start using birth control again, it'll be impossible to predict when they'll have their next child... Only they will know!

Effect on Post–Loss Spacing

Currently, and including Freddy's, there's data from 22 Post–Loss Spacings in Duggar Data's Master Spreadsheet. This data comes from all Predictor and Predictor–Adjacent Families.

Prior to Freddy, the Average Post–Loss Spacing (i.e., Loss Date to Subsequent Live Birth) was 411 Days. Factoring Freddy in, it's 414 Days (+3 Days) (or ~13.6 Months).

ESoQ / When To Expect Dillard #4

ESoQ isn't really relevant, here, since it's clear that Jill + Derick are not quiverfull (QF), and are engaging in family planning. Let's just pretend they aren't for a moment, though... If they were to cast all birth control to the wind and pop out 1 Child Every 713 Days (Their PP), from now until Jill is Age 43.24 (Her Fertility Cut–Off), they'd end up with 9 Children.

As for When to Expect Dillard #4... Again, let's assume they're not going to intentionally control the spacing. If that's the case, here's what the Predictor expects—

Baby News March 15, 2024

Due Date September 17, 2024

Projected DOB September 17, 2024

Jill and Derick Dillard announced they were expecting a rainbow baby on 28th February 2022. They announced the baby was a boy on 23rd March. Baby Frederick Michael was (sensibly) born via planned cesarean section on 7th July 2022, weighing 7lbs. 6oz and measuring 20 inches long. He spend some time in NICU but was home within a couple of weeks of birth. The reason for his stint in NICU has yet to be disclosed.

Frederick means 'peaceful ruler' and is of German origin. It is a royal name and featured as middle names for two British Kings in the 20th Century; George Frederick Albert Ernest (King George V) and Albert Frederick Arthur George (King George VI, father of Queen Elizabeth II). The name has generally always been very popular; for almost eight decades from 1880 to 1957 it was in the top 100 baby names in the US, with the most successful year being 1913 at #49 with 1996 Frederick births. Frederick remained in the top 200 baby names until 1986 before dropping to #213 in 1987. From that year on there was a much more rapid drop in popularity as the gene pool of potential baby names increased and naming trends changed. By 2000 Frederick was #395 in the statistics and had left the top 400 by the following year. The next 7 years saw a decline before a small comeback in the past decade and a half. 2021 saw it jump 10 positions from 2020 to #476.

Michael means 'gift from god'. It has proven to be a very popular name for the Dugs thus far, with 6 of them having some variation of it in their name (Michelle, Jill, Derick, Ben, Michael, and now Frederick). Another royal name, perhaps most notable for being the name of Prince Michael, Duke of Kent, cousin of Queen Elizabeth II. There's not much of interest to say about Michael as the name has always been popular. At the beginning of the 20th Century it was already at #51. It remained in the 40s and 50s until 1936 when it jumped 8 positions on the previous year to #33. It rose quickly through the ranks in the late 30s and first years of the Second World War. In 1943 it hit the top 10. Michael nabbed the number 1 spot in 1954 and stayed there (with the exception of 1960) for 44 years until it fell to number 2 in 1998 and stayed there until 2008. The 2010s saw yet more stead decline and in 2017 it fell to 12th spot. In 2021 it was the 17th most popular baby name with 9041 baby boys taking the name.

Michael (Bates) Keilen is not alone in being a woman having Michael in her name. For 56 years between 1938 and 1994 it ranked in the top 1000 baby girl names. The name entered record in 1938 at #941 and jumped to #764 in 1939. By 1942 it was 594th position and it remained in the 5 and 600s 31 years until 1973, when it achieved #331 for the second consecutive year. 557 girls were named Michael in 1975, the name's most successful year at #374. Michael said goodbye to the top 500 in 1988 and the top 1000 altogether in 199 at #970 with 192 births that year.