#foreign aid

wtf....

We tested whether the abrupt shutdown of USAID led to increased conflict in the regions of Africa that had historically received the most support. Using geocoded data on USAID disbursements merged with detailed records of violent events, we applied a difference-in-differences design that compared conflict outcomes in subnational regions 10 months before and after the January 2025 shutdown, and between regions with varying levels of historical USAID exposure (disbursements in 2017 to 2020)... Regions that had received more aid per capita experienced relatively more conflict after the shutdown. In regions at the 75th percentile of exposure to aid from the United States, the withdrawal of USAID was associated with an approximately 6.5% greater probability of any conflict event as compared with that of regions with no aid from the United States. The probability of protests and riots was 10% greater, the number of conflict events increased by 10.6%, battle counts increased by 6.9%, and battle-related fatalities increased by 9.3%. Event-study analysis confirmed no preexisting differences in conflict trends between high- and low-exposure regions before the shutdown. Effects are of similar size, with a 12.3% relative increase in the number of conflict events. The effects also persist over time. Protests and riots responded immediately, whereas the effects on battles intensified over subsequent months. In addition, the effects of the aid withdrawal were substantially mitigated in countries with stronger, more inclusive political institutions... The abrupt withdrawal of USAID led to a significant and sustained increase in conflict across Africa’s most USAID-dependent regions. The findings demonstrate that large-scale, sudden aid cuts can destabilize fragile settings. A core mechanism that can explain this result is that the economic opportunity costs of violence drop faster than the rents over which groups compete. The mitigating role of inclusive institutions highlights the persistent vulnerability of regions with weak governance to humanitarian and economic shocks. These results have implications for the design and timing of changes in international aid.

'What am I to do now?', said a tearful former USAID worker, old Africa hand, manager of millions in health money, guest at the best international hotels and generous friend to government, very generous indeed

By now even the pro forma trips to the slums were unnecessary, so unerringly similar they all were. A sojourn at the Independence, good food, a friendly camaraderie with the President's men, and lovely, languorous nights with dark-eyed lovers was Africa for Perrine.