Indian stock market morning brief — here’s how global cues and domestic shifts set the stage for Dalal Street today. #image_livemint.com As Indian markets gear up for another volatile yet hopeful trading day, a cocktail of domestic political stability, global optimism, and sector-specific triggers is shaping the tone for Dalal Street. From the GIFT Nifty’s strong start to renewed investor confidence in India–US trade relations, here’s everything you need to know before the opening bell. GIFT Nifty Indicates a Positive Start The GIFT Nifty index traded nearly 144 points higher than the Nifty futures, signaling a likely gap-up opening for Indian equities. This surge mirrors improved global sentiment and hopes of sustained foreign inflows. Analysts suggest that such a strong early indicator often reflects confidence from global investors betting on India’s growth story. India–US Trade Talks Gain Momentum A significant overnight development was the progress in trade negotiations between India and the United States. Reports suggest that both sides are working toward a limited trade pact that could open doors for reduced tariffs and stronger cross-border investment. This optimism is expected to buoy stocks in IT, pharma, and manufacturing sectors that rely heavily on exports. Bihar Exit Polls Favour NDA, Political Stability Boosts Sentiment The Bihar exit polls, projecting a comfortable majority for the NDA alliance, have been welcomed by the market as a sign of political continuity. Stability at the state level often strengthens investor confidence, particularly in sectors like infrastructure, power, and real estate. Analysts note that a clear mandate reduces policy uncertainty and encourages long-term institutional investment. Global Risk Appetite Improves Global markets offered a strong tailwind for Indian investors. Wall Street closed higher as concerns over a prolonged U.S. government shutdown eased, while Asian markets opened in the green. The Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Shanghai Composite indices all posted modest gains, reflecting a broader global risk-on sentiment that bodes well for emerging markets like India. IT and Export Stocks Poised for Gains The improving tone of India–US relations has placed the spotlight on IT and export-heavy counters. Technology giants like Infosys, TCS, and HCL Tech are expected to benefit from renewed U.S. business confidence. Similarly, pharma exporters such as Sun Pharma and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories could see short-term buying interest as trade sentiment improves. Nifty and Sensex Extend Winning Streak On Tuesday, benchmark indices extended their upward momentum — the Nifty rose by 120 points (0.47%) to close near 25,695, while the Sensex gained 350 points to settle around 84,510. Mid-cap and small-cap stocks also saw selective buying, indicating broad-based participation. Market experts suggest that this sustained strength reflects growing optimism about India’s economic resilience. Commodities and Currency: Dollar Weakens, Gold Strengthens The U.S. dollar index continued to soften amid speculation of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts early next year. A weaker dollar usually benefits emerging markets by making their assets more attractive. Meanwhile, gold prices inched higher, signaling mild risk aversion among global investors. Crude oil prices, however, remained under pressure due to oversupply concerns, which is a net positive for India’s inflation and fiscal outlook. Volatility Ahead of Futures & Options Expiry Traders are bracing for heightened volatility as markets approach the monthly Futures & Options (F&O) expiry. With the GIFT Nifty premium running high, analysts caution that intraday fluctuations could intensify. Derivative data also suggests a build-up of call writing near the 25,800 mark, indicating resistance at higher levels. FIIs Return to Buying Mode Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) made a strong comeback after several sessions of net selling. Improved liquidity and stable policy signals have drawn them back into Indian equities. On Tuesday, provisional data indicated net FII inflows of over ₹2,800 crore. Analysts believe consistent FII participation could drive Nifty toward new record highs in the coming weeks. Valuation Check: Analysts Expect Consolidation Despite positive momentum, experts warn against over-enthusiasm. Valuations across several sectors — particularly consumer goods and private banks — remain elevated. Analysts suggest that a short-term phase of consolidation could set the stage for the next sustainable rally. The focus, they say, should shift from chasing momentum to identifying value-driven opportunities. Top Gainers and Losers from Tuesday’s Session - Top Gainers: Infosys (+2.1%), HDFC Bank (+1.8%), Tata Motors (+1.6%), Sun Pharma (+1.4%), and Reliance Industries (+1.2%) - Top Losers: ITC (-0.9%), Maruti Suzuki (-0.7%), Asian Paints (-0.5%), SBI (-0.4%), and Power Grid (-0.3%) These moves reflect rotation toward export-oriented and large-cap growth stocks as investors bet on India’s global trade advantage. Investor Takeaway: Optimism With a Hint of Caution With global markets rebounding, trade optimism building, and domestic politics stabilizing, India’s market outlook appears robust in the short term. However, traders must tread carefully amid elevated valuations and F&O expiry volatility. For investors with a medium-term horizon, dips in IT, banking, and infrastructure sectors could offer attractive entry points. India’s economic resilience, backed by steady earnings growth, continues to make Dalal Street a preferred destination for global capital — but as always, timing and strategy remain key. FOR MORE BLOGS - beyondthepunchlines.com Read the full article