#exponentialmovingaverage

Amidst positive global cues, the Nifty index struggled to regain its short-term moving average, the 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average), indicating a strong bearish sentiment in the market. The daily chart displayed a long negative candle, ending just 5 points higher.Bearish Counterattack Pattern Suggests WeaknessFrom a technical perspective, the observed pattern resembled a bearish counterattack-type candle formation following a minor bounce. The ongoing negative chart pattern, characterized by lower tops and bottoms, remains consistent on the daily chart. Moreover, the recent high of 19,452 (achieved on Wednesday) can be identified as a new lower top in the sequence. This reinforces the expectation of further short-term weakness.Options Data Points to Sub-19,500 ExpiryMarket activity suggests that substantial open interest has been added to the 19,500CE (Call Option Expiry) category. This implies that the index is likely to expire below the 19,500 level during Thursday’s expiry.Key Support and Resistance LevelsIn terms of technical levels, a key support zone resides within the range of 19,300 to 19,250. Should the index fail to sustain above this level, it could trigger a continuation of the downward trajectory.Resistance and Momentum IndicatorsThe daily charts reveal that Nifty encountered resistance within the zone of 19,430 to 19,450. This zone corresponds to the convergence of the 20-day moving average and the 61.82% Fibonacci retracement level at 19,449, calculated from the decline between 19,584 and 19,229. The daily and hourly momentum indicators have displayed a negative crossover, signaling a sell-off. This alignment of price and momentum indicators suggests the initiation of the next phase of the downward movement.Maintaining a Negative OutlookGiven these technical observations, our outlook on the index remains pessimistic, with a target set at 19,100. In terms of levels, the crucial support zone spans 19,250 to 19,220, while the immediate resistance range is anticipated between 19,420 and 19,450.Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider consulting a financial professional before engaging in algorithmic trading.

The previous trading week concluded on a subdued note for the Indian stock market, mirroring the global trend of weakness. As the new week unfolds, all eyes are keenly fixed on the impending RIL AGM, where noteworthy announcements are expected to drive market sentiment. Simultaneously, a key highlight of the current week is the imminent release of India's first quarter GDP figures, which hold the promise of providing insights into the trajectory of the nation's economy.Anticipating RIL AGM and Economic InsightsThe forthcoming RIL AGM has created substantial anticipation among traders and investors, as it holds the potential to reveal significant developments that could sway market movements. Concurrently, the unveiling of India's first quarter GDP data is awaited with bated breath, as these numbers have the potential to offer valuable insights into the health of the country's economy.Market Sentiment and Niche SectorsAs market participants gear up for the week ahead, the prevailing sentiment remains cautious, driven by a lack of positive catalysts. Despite this backdrop, Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, predicts that niche mid and small-cap sectors could see notable activity. These segments might take the spotlight, potentially compensating for the overall dearth of significant positive triggers.Early Indicators- Positive Signal from GIFT Nifty: The GIFT Nifty (formerly SGX Nifty) suggests a favorable market opening. It traded 45 points higher at 19,282.50, indicating the possibility of a positive start to Monday's trading session.- Technical Analysis of Nifty: The Nifty index encountered a significant support level represented by the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (55EMA). The market sentiment is likely to remain bearish as long as the index remains below 19,450, where the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is situated on the daily chart. A potential breach below 19,240 could steer the Nifty towards the 19,000 level.- Movement of India VIX: The India VIX, which gauges market fear, witnessed a rise of 3.27%, closing at 12.08 levels.Global Market Landscape- US Stock Market: The US stock market experienced a volatile session that concluded positively on Friday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks about potential interest rate hikes to control inflation provided a boost to investor sentiment. The Dow climbed by 0.7%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.7%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.9%.- Asian Market Trends: Asian equities followed suit with modest gains on Monday. Investors responded positively to Jerome Powell's comments. Japan's Topix index rose by 0.9%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 saw a 0.5% increase, and Euro Stoxx 50 futures remained stable.Oil Price MovementOil prices witnessed a slight increase in tandem with equity markets. This uptick was prompted by China's efforts to stimulate its economy. Brent crude saw a rise of 0.3% to reach $84.70 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 0.3% to $80.08 per barrel.F&O Ban ListSeveral stocks are under the F&O ban for the day, including BHEL, Escorts, RBL Bank, India Cements, Sun TV, GMR Infra, Hindustan Copper, and Manappuram Finance. This restriction applies to securities that have exceeded 95% of the market-wide position limit.Institutional Activity and Rupee PerformanceForeign portfolio investors (FPIs) concluded Friday as net sellers, with sales totaling Rs 4,638 crore. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) made purchases worth Rs 1,414 crore. The Indian rupee faced a minor setback, declining by 8 paise to settle at 82.64 against the US dollar. The decline was attributed to forex outflows, a robust US currency, and negative trends in the equity market.As the new week dawns, the market's attention remains riveted on key events and indicators that have the potential to shape trading dynamics.Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider consulting a financial professional before engaging in algorithmic trading.