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OSG REPORT WEEK 2

Week 1 is in the books, and we still have some unanswered questions around the league. We will call

week 1 a loss. So 0-1 is the record. Not enough Lamar Jackson in week 1. Sometimes your research

process can begin one way and filter the other as the week progresses. More information becomes

available, one or two articles gets read, one or two shows gets heard, and can sway you left or right. No

matter what, do what research you’re going to do, follow Vegas, and then make sound decisions

trusting your own gut to hand build or use optimizers for lineup construction. Regardless here goes.

This article will change somewhat from week to week. Some weeks in the NFL warrant full game break

downs of a lot of different games. Some weeks, we need to focus on just a few, and some weeks are

somewhere in between. One place to begin is Vegas. Two games up top on the main slate (12Noon and

3PM central start times) have totals over 50.

Chiefs -8.5 at Raiders (53.5)

Saints at Rams -3 (53)

The rest spread out evenly from 47.5 to 40.5

The Patriots and Dolphins total continues to rise, more so in favor of New England.

The highest implied totals are New England 33. Chiefs 31. Ravens 29.8 and Rams at 28.

These totals help to see who Vegas expects to put up points, possessions, chances, which equals fantasy

points.

Chiefs -8.5 at Raiders (53.5)

Patrick Mahomes despite the “tough” matchup vs The Jags showed that The Chiefs are still matchup

proof to a large extent. He continued to deliver with Tyreek Hill out of the game. Therefore it is no

reason to jump off the train this week. For success you MUST have pieces from this game. Most

research is still being based on last years and previous years performances. With that said, nobody in

the NFL has a better TE matchup than Travis Kelce. Beginning and ending lineups with Mahomes and

Kelce is a slam dunk, and Kelce will be the premium pay up spot at TE. With Hill out, yards and

receptions become open, and I’m going back to Meco Hardman here. He’s minimally priced across the

industry and was on the field majority of plays after Hill’s exit. With a full week of practice, he and

Sammie Watkins should be in line for a full workload with Kelce here. Outside of full game stacks, I’m

staying away mostly (which could backfire) from Damien Williams/LeSean McCoy. They split the work,

though Williams saw targets out of the backfield He will need to repeat that plus get in the endzone.

The running back on the other side has all of my interest. In addition to Kelce (and Zeke) Josh Jacobs will

be in the core of my roster construction. He and the Raiders saw no price increase which usually

happens to the Monday night teams. Jacobs, Tyrell Williams, and notably TE Darren Waller had good

performances, and now get good matchups in a pace up game for them. I do have interest in Derek

Carr, just research his game logs vs KC. He has had success here. Carr (or Mahomes) paired up with

Waller or Williams, Jacobs, and Kelce, gives access to all TDs in one way or other to this high game total.

Saints at Rams-3 (53).

The Saints are road dogs after barely getting by Houston (yet not covering spread) vs The Rams in a

rematch from last years’ controversial NFC Title game. This game should have a playoff atmosphere

with both teams wanting the win. While Brees is traditionally not the same on the road, this team

hasn’t been the same over the last year and a half. More points scored on the road, more running game

involvement. So do not be too fast to fade Brees. I keep taking Zeke (site dependent) over Kamara on

Fanduel, but Kamara is cheaper on Draftkings. I’ll take Zeke’s TDs on fanduel and Kamara’s pass work on

DK. Though they both are excellent plays. The only issue with Kamara here is the Rams had been

decent vs RBs (not evident by C-Mac in Week 1). Even those out of the backfield. He did have a

productive game in the NFC title game, but stats point to the passing game being the better play. No

WR in the NFL has a higher floor right now than Michael Thomas. He’s not the over the top burner, but

each time they need a catch on 2 nd or 3 rd down, its Brees to Thomas. 9-12 targets are a lock, and Brees is

one of the most accurate passers there is. Period. Jared Cook has a little TD value here, but I’m looking

for Thomas first, Kamara, then Brees. In game stacks any WR is game here. On the other side, it’s Goff

and any WR. Goff’s end of season playoff, Super Bowl, Week 1 this year stats are not the best. Has the

NFL caught up to he and McVay, or is it they have to change a bit with not as much Gurley putting in

work? I said last week it was a chance to buy low on Gurley and he had a “decent” line, no TDs.

However, Gurley played 70 percent of the snaps, and nearly had 100 yards. It’s just he lost the 2 TDs to

Brown. So again, it’s a chance to buy low. It’s a revenge game for Brandin Cooks who like The Texans

WR’s showed is the big play over the top guy. This week I favor he and Cooper Kupp over Woods as

Kupp seems to be Goff’s favorite red zone target. But all 3 are equally priced around the industry.

New England -18.5 at Dolphins (47.5)

This line keeps going and some places have it at 19.5. It should be 20. Yes, the Dolphins usually play

New England close, even pulling off the upset in Miami last season. This isn’t the same Dolphins team

by far. If Lamar Jackson (no disrespect) can light them up as he did, what will Tom “don’t take my feet

off the gas” Brady and co. do? Add in Antonio Brown to Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon and you can

mix and match any of these guys. My favorite in a large spread is the running back Sony Michel. His

stats were not the most impressive last week, but I can see a bounce back here. Deep in the red zone,

should produce TD equity from him and he and James White are similarly priced, so I see Michel being

the guy here for me. Brady, Michel, Patriots defense are my favorites. I will have stacks with the WR

core as well. Josh Gordon is always one play away from a big play, but Michel is in my core of RBs with

Elliott, Kamara, and Jacobs.

Chargers -2.5 at Lions (47.5)

It is very interesting to see The Chargers as a road favorite here. Since they are, the players must get

some attention as pivots off of the more popular plays of the Chiefs, Rams, Saints, and Pats.

Traditionally this is not the best sport for Austin Ekler. The Lions is not a defense you want to pick on.

Kyler Murray is no Phillip Rivers, and Murray was popular last week, but he didn’t do much until the 4 th

quarter and overtime. However, Hunter Henry has been ruled out and this just opens up so much

volume alone for Keenan Allen and Ekler. For what it’s worth, Virgil Green is bottom price on all sites

and should be the #1 TE on the depth chart. If they are favored and this game remains close and gets to

the 47.5 total or more, it has to go thru Rivers/Allen/Ekler. They together or mixed in with Watkins,

Kelce, Mahomes, or cheap Raiders, and Rams. My week started off liking Allen more, but a little love for

Ekler is growing as the work just has to bet there for him. There can be a case made for rookie tight end

T.J. Hockenson on the Lions side of the ball as he had a great week 1 with 6 rec for 131 yards and 1TD off

of 9 targets. The Chargers have always defended the TE position well and will be hard for me to get off

of Kelce and Waller.

Cardinals at -13.5 Ravens (46)

It’s a high total here though Vegas expects more scoring to be on the Baltimore side and I tend to agree.

I do think the line is a little high, but I do like Baltimore to roll by 8-9. Once again, Kyler Murray will be

popular, but in his second career game at Baltimore? This organization has always hung its hat on

defense. Yes, Jimmy Smith is out at corner in Baltimore, but I tend to love the defense here for INT’s

and sacks if Kingsbury is determined to let the rookie throw 40-50 times. I would run back Baltimore

stacks with David Johnson, who was involved in the passing game in week 1, before Murray. Yes, play

Lamar Jackson. Yes, play Marquise Brown despite only playing 14 (very productive) snaps. Yes, consider

Michael Crabtree here as well. My favorite is still Mark Ingram and the Baltimore defense. At home,

check. Favorite, check. Opportunity for turnovers and short fields. Check. Again, though hard to get

away from Kelce and Waller, keep Mark Andrews at TE in the player pool as well.

Seahawks at -4 Steelers (46.5)

Teams that get embarrassed on national TV tend to bounce back in a major way, and this presents a

great opportunity for Pittsburgh. Andy Dalton’s first ever 400 yard came on the road against this “not

anymore” Legion of Boom secondary. Big Ben to Smith-Schuster could pay off in stacks, and perhaps

James Conner and Vance McDonald as well. Moncrief had 4 drops off of 10 targets and ended with an

ugly 3 rec 7 yards line. Pittsburgh has always been a straightforward offense. On the other side of the

game, my only play here is Chris Carson, but little interest. Wilson and Lockett will get hype, but I have

failed many of times trying to pair Wilson with targets, and now the team is determined to run more.

Pass.

Cowboys -5.5 at Redskins (46.5)

It’s never fun to favor road teams in divisional games but it’s hard to avoid Ezekiel Elliott. He and

Kamara are 1 and 1A, both on the road. The matchup is there, the history of his performance vs

Washington is there, and I do expect his workload to increase, and a great chance to buy low. I usually

avoid division games, but they want to come out 2-0 out of the gate and would have come out with two

division wins out of the gate. The passing game for good reason is being noticed after last weeks

performance. If pairing Dak, consider with Zeek and the defense, or a pass catcher such as Cooper, or

Gallup, but the low owned red sneaky red zone target could be Randall Cobb. I have zero interest in

Keenum and the offense here, and actually like the Dallas defense.

49ers at -1.5 Bengals (45.5)

I have very little interest here as I take a wait and see approach on the 49er’s backfield. In some lineups

to pivot off of Kelce, we can look to George Kittle. He had two TDs called back from Jimmy G, and they

could still be paired together here. I have an issue playing players from “bad” teams, and the two TDs

being called back happens on “bad” teams. It was a great spot vs Tampa (see Greg Olsen’s Thursday

night line. His only failure was no TDs impart to his QB), and this is just an OK spot for Kittle here. Value

has opened up in the backfield with the injury to Tevin Coleman, but I have little interest in Breida or

Mostert. If that beats me, so be it. I also think Cincy’s performance was matchup based, but Tyler Boyd

and John Ross should see all of the targets with no AJ Green. If for some reason, Joe Mixon is ruled out

GIO BERNARD IS ALMOST A MUST PLAY. He has always stepped up for solid value in those situations.

Colts at -3.5 Titans (44)

Here’s a game where we can save some time. I have interest in both RBs in Derrick Henry and Marlon

Mack and have interest in both defenses. I have very little interest in either passing games. Delanie

Walker finds himself in an excellent spot, but again, very little interest in the passing games.

Bills at Giants Pick Em (44)

Buffalo opened as 2-point favorites and it’s down to a pick em game. Vegas expects the game to be

tight, so despite the low total, there may be some value here. I’m still not sure about Devin Singletary at

RB in Buffalo, but Josh Allen can be played “naked” with his rushing upside as opposed to forcing the

stack here with plays such as John Brown. If you play either side, Saquon Barkley should be run back.

With Kamara, Zeek, Eckler, Jacobs, etc garnering so much attention that Barkley may fly under the radar.

The Bills are tight on TEs, but Sterling Shepard has been ruled OUT and Cody Latimer is very

questionable and will be a game-time decision. Evan Engram saw 14 targets and had 11 rec 116 yards

and 1TD. That’s WR type stats. I love the Bills defense here to get some sacks and an INT off Eli but

keep Barkley and Engram in the player pool in tournaments.

Jags at -9 Texans (43.5)

Here’s a line I think is interesting. I think the TD plus line reflects the unknown of the Gardner Minshew

at QB for Jacksonville. Forget the score the Chiefs hung up here, it’s the Chiefs. Minshew came in with

poise and went 22-25 275 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. Not bad for game 1 for a rookie tossed in the fire after

Foles went out. That’s a better line than Kyler Murray who has been prepped as the starter since Day 1.

Yes, he was a 6 th round draft pick but so was Tom Brady. He played a 4 WR set in college and finished in

the top 10 in Heisman voting. He’s no stranger to throwing the football. Westbrook gets a very

favorable matchup, and he and DJ Chark provide excellent value at WR when trying to pay up for RBs

and other WRs such as Michael Thomas. Can the Texans do to this respectable defense what the Chiefs

did? I’m inclined to say no, but Deandre Hopkins is as matchup proof as possible. I like other WRs than

he, but I will have Watson/Hopkins and maybe Fuller stacks. I’ll be a bit overweight yet going back and

forth with Tyrell Williams and DeDe Westbrook. Don’t go overboard here, but definitely value to be

had.

I glossed over both the Bears/Broncos game, and the Vikings/Packers game. I have 0 interest in any

offensive weapon at Mile High Stadium, but both defenses deserve strong consideration, but keep in

mind that the Bears are a -2.5 favorite vs their old defensive coordinator. Who wins, the offensive coach

in Chicago with a subpar QB, or the defensive coordinator who practiced with them week in week out.

The Vikings/Packers game is a stay away for me, being a divisional game. Minnesota wants to run only

throwing the ball 10 times last week (unsustainable), while Adams can’t get over 80 yards vs this

defense. Green Bay’s backfield is in a time share, and there is so much better offensive spots across the

board this week.

QB’s

Mahomes

Carr (see Minshew and Foles combined stats last week)

Minshew vs Watson

Jackson & Brees in not the best matchups on paper

Brady

Goff (can he bounce back)

Prescott Rivers

Allen

Dalton if you think Week 1 wasn’t a fluke

Jimmy G

RBs

Kamara Elliott

Ingram Ekeler

Mack D. Johnson

Michel Jacobs

Bernard if Mixon is out

Gurley/Malcolm Brown if stacking Saints/Rams Game

WRs

Hopkins

Thomas

Smith-Schuster

New England WR core

Rams WR Core

Cowboys WR core

Allen (huge target market share)

Watkins & Hardman

Westbrook/DJ Chark

Tyrell Williams

TEs

Kelce

Kittle

Waller

Engram

Andrews

Walker

Defense

Bears vs Denver

Bills

Ravens

Vikings/Packers

Patriots