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Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight examines prospects for a GOP takeover of the House and Senate in historical context-- including baselines that we might want to use for assessing this outcome. So, should we be comparing 2014 to 2012? To 2010? To something else? What is an appropriate baseline for evaluating midterm election outcomes? And, how can we make determinations of political change on the basis of such outcomes?
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