2014 Kentucky Derby: Top 5 Selections
Orb & jockey Joel Rosario cruising to victory in 2013's Kentucky Derby
#5 -- Vicars In Trouble - Ridden by Kentucky Oaks winning jockey Rosie Napravnik, this son of Into Mischief comes into the race off a wire to wire victory in the Louisiana Derby. Previously, he finished third in the Risen Star, and won the LeComte by 6 lengths over Sugar Bowl Stakes winner Albano. While Vicar's In Trouble has certainly has displayed talent in his runaway victories, he has yet to do so without being at or just a stride behind the lead, usually with the assistance of a soft pace. His sire and dam both being sprinters, he may receive some endurance from his grandsire, Harlan's Holiday, who was stakes placed at 10 furlongs on multiple occasions. His damsire, Vicar, won the 9 furlong Florida Derby, but after poor finishes in both the Derby and Preakness, he settled for shorter distances. However, it is worth noting that Vicar's sire was Breeders' Cup Classic winner Wild Again, and Vicar's In Trouble's second broodmare sire is Preakness winner Tank's Prospect. It is debatable whether or not Vicar's In Trouble can stay the classic distance -- and before he can answer any such question, he must first overcome any breaking issues that tag along with his post position. I have trouble imagining this colt wearing roses without having his way out on the lead.
#4 -- Dance With Fate - Most recently triumphant in the Bluegrass Stakes over Keeneland's Polytrack surface, he has done most of his work over turf or synthetic surfaces. While initially I did not intend to include a synthetic based horse so highly on my list, Dance With Fate has been working sharply in his mornings at Churchill, and looking by reports to be ready for a big performance. As well, it is worth noting that he owns a second place finish over the dirt surface at Santa Anita. His sire was a miler, but his damsire, Saint Ballado, is the sire of G1 routers Sunriver and Saint Liam.
#3 -- Danza - Much talked about after making good impressions in his gallops over Churchill, Danza was a 40-1 winner in the Arkansas Derby. With Dubai World Cup winner Street Cry as his grandsire, and Ogygian (winner at 9 furlongs and son of Preakness winner & multiple 10 furlong winner Damascus) as his damsire, there is reason to believe Danza will thrive as the distances grow longer.
#2 -- Wicked Strong - An impressive winner of the Wood Memorial over the highly touted Samraat. He has been working brilliantly over Churchill's surface, putting in a 36.60 3 furlong bullet earlier in the week. On top of the buzz surrounding him, Wicked Strong is brilliantly bred for distance. His sire, Hard Spun, was twice placed at 10 furlongs, in both the Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic, and his damsire is the dual classic winner Charismatic.
#1 -- California Chrome - Heavily touted, and not without good reason. A winner in his last 4 races, and none of them by less than 5 lengths, California Chrome is considered by many to be the most dominant favorite in recent years. In his last outing, he obliterated the field in the Santa Anita Derby, running the fastest time for the race in 16 years. While few negatives can be found in Chrome's powerful, chestnut physique and dazzling performances, Santa Anita is a track known for producing deceptively quick times and enabling horses to stretch out further than their abilities would ordinarily allow. Much of whether or not one believes Chrome can stay the classic distance hinges on whether you choose to examine the sprinters up close in his pedigree, or the routing champions nestled a few generations back (more on that here). Judging by the flair and ease with which he has been winning his races up to this point in his season my vote would be a resounding “YES”.
