NV-02 is the most conservative US House district in Nevada. The House seat there has never been held by a Democrat since the district was created after the 1980 census. It easily was taken by Trump in 2024.

However a new poll shows the MAGA Republican trailing his Democratic challenger in the 2026 midterms. NV-02 is competitive.

The latest sign of impending doom for the GOP comes in the form of a new poll in Nevada’s 2nd District. Released Tuesday, the survey from Wedgewood Polls finds Democratic nominee Teresa Benitez-Thompson leading Republican David Flippo, 48% to 46%, in the rural district that encompasses the northern half of the Silver State. [ ... ] Why is that so bad for Republicans? Because President Donald Trump won Nevada’s 2nd District by a whopping 14 percentage points in 2024, according to data from The Downballot. The district is not even on the list of competitive seats in the major political handicapping outlets. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the race as “safe” for Republicans. If Democrats are ahead in a seat like this, then Republicans are in for a brutal election night. Of course, we mused earlier this year that this seat could be one to watch this fall. The seat is open after Republican Rep. Mark Amodei announced in February that he was not running for reelection. As I wrote at the time, “[I]n wave-election years, a seat like this can lead to surprising outcomes—especially when it’s an open seat, with no incumbent advantage.”

Rep. Amodei saw the writing on the wall and wisely decided to bail.

“With all due respect Mr. President, Nevada already has five representatives who live in Clark County. Your endorsement[,] if followed, would make it six out of six,” Amodei said, insinuating that Flippo’s carpetbagging from Las Vegas would not be received well in the rural part of the state. So what did Nevada Republicans do after Amodei issued his warning? They chose Flippo, of course. And that left Amodei saying aloud that he thinks the seat could flip this fall.

So the Trump-snorting GOP primary voters of NV-02 followed the dictates of The Orange One and nominated a carpetbagger who actually lives at the opposite end of the state.

Every wave is made up of individual drops of water. NV-02 is another potential contributor to a Blue Wave. 🌊

Of course election victories don't happen on their own. Every Democrat who lives in a swing district or swing state should seriously consider getting involved with a local candidate's campaign for state or federal office.