#continuously variable transmissions analysis

The United States declared measles eliminated in 2000 after decades of successful vaccination campaigns. Elimination means there has been no chain of disease transmission inside a country lasting longer than 12 months. The current measles outbreak in Texas, however, could put that status at risk. With more than 600 cases, 64 hospitalizations, and two deaths, it’s the largest outbreak the state has seen since 1992, when 990 cases were linked to a single outbreak. Nationally, the US has seen 800 cases of measles so far in 2025, the most since 2019. Last year, there were 285 cases.

“We’re really at a point where we should be trying to increase vaccination as much as possible,” says Mathew Kiang, assistant professor of epidemiology and population health at Stanford University and one of the authors of the paper.

Childhood vaccination in the US has been on a downward trend. Data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from state and local vaccination programs found that from the 2019–2020 school year to the 2022–2023 school year, coverage among kindergartners with state-required vaccinations declined from 95 percent to approximately 93 percent. Those vaccines included MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella), DTaP (diphtheria, tetanus, and acellular pertussis), polio, and chickenpox.

In the current study, Kiang and his colleagues modeled each state separately, taking into account their vaccination rates, which ranged from 88 percent to 96 percent for measles, 78 percent to 91 percent for diphtheria, and 90 percent to 97 percent for the polio vaccine. Other variables included demographics of the population, vaccine efficacy, risk of disease importation, typical duration of the infection, the time between exposure and being able to spread the disease, and the contagiousness of the disease, also known as the basic reproduction number. Measles is highly contagious, with one person on average being able to infect 12 to 18 people. The researchers used 12 as the basic reproduction number in their study.

Under a scenario with a 10 percent decline in measles vaccination, the model estimates 11.1 million cases of measles over the next 25 years, while a 5 percent increase in the vaccination rate would result in just 5,800 cases in that same time period.

In addition to measles, the authors used their model to assess the risk of rubella, polio, and diphtheria. The researchers chose these four diseases for their infectiousness and risk of severe complications. While sporadic cases of these diseases do occur and are usually related to international travel, they are no longer endemic in the US, meaning they no longer regularly occur.

The model predicted that rubella, polio, and diphtheria are unlikely to become endemic under current levels of vaccination. Rubella and polio have a basic reproduction number of four, while diphtheria’s is less than three. In 81 percent of simulations, vaccination rates would need to fall by around 35 percent for rubella to become endemic in the next 25 years. Polio, meanwhile, had a 50 percent chance of becoming endemic if vaccination rates dropped 40 percent. Diphtheria was the least likely disease to become reestablished.

“Any of these diseases, under the right conditions, could come back,” says coauthor Nathan Lo, a Stanford physician and assistant professor of infectious diseases.

To evaluate the validity of the model, the researchers ran a scenario with recent state-level vaccine coverage rates over a five-year period and found that the number of model-predicted cases broadly aligned with the number of observed cases in those years. The authors also found that Texas was at the highest risk for measles.

One limitation of the study was that the model assumed that vaccination rates were the same across all communities within a state. It didn’t take into account large variations in vaccination levels. Pockets of low vaccination rates, like in the Mennonite community at the center of the West Texas outbreak, would likely lead to local outbreaks that are larger than expected given the overall vaccination rate.

The study also didn’t take into account the possibility that vaccination rates could rebound in an area in response to an outbreak. “That’s the thing that we have control over. If you’re able to change that cycle, then that disease won’t spread anymore,” says Mujeeb Basit, associate chief of the Clinical Informatics Center at UT Southwestern Medical Center, who wasn’t involved in the study.

Gilnean Worgen (Gilneas)

Bloodfang Worgen (Silverpine Forest)

Hillsbrad Worgen (Fenris Isle)

Moonrage Worgen (Pyrewood Village, Silverpine Forest)

Shadowfang Worgen (Shadowfang Keep/Silverpine Forest)

Nightbane Worgen (Duskwood)

Talonbranch Worgen (Felwood)

Lycanthoth Worgen (Mt. Hyjal)

Wolf Cult (Ostensibly defunct, though exemplars may remain.)

                                         PROJECT OUTLINE

 1.  Field Research.

Primary Team: Lords Teren and Lycan Kiden; Dame Alituari Sunvein, Req Pax Urbi, Baron Ja’nin Ninro.

Secondary participants: Vanessa Brand (Bloodfang,) Atreyu, the Glaive (Talonbranch,) Dame Cherly Hawthorne, Sir Kelladen Slater,(Kiden/Gilnean) Maximus Goldeneye (Hillsbrad,) and Saunee Ohtar (Druid of the Claw.)

STEP ONE: Locate packs of both cogent and use a family of feral Worgen for the purposes of acquiring unfiltered dispositional data to act as a control group.

STEP TWO: Collect data pertaining to sociological hierarchies, inter-group communications, hierarchies, migration patterns; mating and hunting strategies.

STEP THREE: Collect involuntary samples of biological, chemical, toxicological, viral, bacterial and any unidentifiable physiological samples for further laboratory research purposes.

RESULTS:

With the assistance of the Bloodfang, Hillsbrad and Talonbranch Worgen, we were able to secure live biological, chemical, toxicological, viral, and bacterial samples for our research from each of their packs.

In addition, samples of the above were also secured – living and post-mortem – from the Moonrage, Shadowfang, and Lycanthoth Packs.

These samples were preserved non-magically and delivered into the Laboratory of Sir Lycan Maddox (Now Lord Lycan Kiden.) for further medical evaluation.

2.  Laboratory Research.

Primary Team: Sir Lycan Maddox/Lord Lycan Kiden; Alituari Sunvein; Count As’eh Condea; Lord Grinsren Per’poh.

Secondary Participants: Vanessa Brand (Bloodfang,) Atreyu, the Glaive (Talonbranch,) Maximus Goldeneye (Hillsbrad.)

STEP ONE: Acquire bodily fluids, skin cells, claw and deceased Worgen tissue samples. Use voluntary and scientific (medical) samples.

STEP TWO: Isolate biological, chemical, toxicological, viral, bacterial and unidentifiable physiological samples.

STEP THREE: Attempt to isolate active variables pertaining to transmission of Worgenism, resistances to the Worgenism condition, and possible alchemical, mutagenic, or genetic treatments.

RESULTS:

Conclusive evidence suggests that the potency of the Worgen condition is progressively more significant along genealogical lines.

Example: Earlier generations sampled from Kaldorei afflicted with this condition are considerably more powerful and transformations are far more violent among them than even those of modern Worgens.

This indicates that the modern strain of Worgenism – regardless of origins – may be traced through older Subjects and has led to the hypoethsis by Atreyu that additional samples should be taken if any survivors from the original Druids of the Pack may be located.

This resulted in a Hunt being called specifically to secure samples from the Feral Worgen in Kalimdor and throughout Mount Hyjal in the hopes of acquiring field samples from either a Druid of the Pack or original Wolf Cult.

Eventually, Atreyu and Lycan were able to acquire samples from each, though Atreyu was gravely wounded and immediate medical extraction prevented a full spectrum of materials from being taken for laboratory evaluation.

Final analysis indicates that the Druids of the Pack are the originating strain and these results were forwarded to the Marquis, Lord Teren Kiden, to undertake as part of upcoming Library Research Efforts.

3.  Library Research.

Primary Team: Marquis Teren Kiden; Baron Rementhil Davington.

Secondary Participants: Sir Lycan Maddox/Lord Lycan Kiden; Alituari Sunvein; Baron Larcos Sobo’Avill;

STEP ONE: Research the Worgen phenomenon through anecdotal and recorded histories found or referenced in throughout Libraries located throughout the Northern Eastern Kingdoms.

STEP TWO: Research the Worgen phenomenon through anecdotal and recorded histories found or referenced in the Darnassian Library; Kalimdor.

STEP THREE: Research the Worgen phenomenon through anecdotal and recorded histories found or referenced in the Dalaranian Library; Broken Isles.

RESULTS:

After investigating the Nishanian Library, Davington Libraries, and the Libraries at Fenris Keep and in the Duchy of Kiden, it became readily apparent that the vast majority of information pertaining to Worgens was both anecdotal and subjective; whether derived from personal transformations and/or terrifying tales of escape.

These tales strongly indicated a transfer of Worgenism via bodily fluids; only to be controverted by the consistent tales of uninfected, unafflicted, offspring being born into packs whose parents consisted of two Humans, a Worgen and a Human, and two Worgens. After several such examples were reviewed two teams were used to expand on research pertaining to these unusual, non-viral, non-bacterial, non-physiological failures to be corrupted by what is by all appearances a physical malady.

Follow-up investigative research was undertaken at the Dalaran Library where Marquis Teren Kiden and Dame Alituari Sunvein met with Librarians in Darnassus for further information regarding the Worgen condition.

At this juncture, we were advised that the Druid of the Pack was tied to a Kal’Dorei artifact known as ‘The Scythe of Elune.’ Despite best efforts to learn more of the Scythe, the research team was rebuffed by the local Kal’Dorei Druids and forced to continue their inquiry elsewhere.

As the research team exited Darnassus, Marquis Kiden was approached by an elder Druidess who inquired as to the nature of the groups interest and offered to facilitate this research at the Library in Dalaran.

Saunee Ohtar’s offer led to a much fuller understanding of the Scythe of Elune’s origins, which she had personal knowledge of. After some debate with a Kaldorei Kirin Tor Librarian as to whether Worgenism might be in some way connected to either the Wild God Omen or the Wild God Goldrinn we were informed by our Druidic companion that – of the two – Goldrinn posed the more likely candidate as there was a pre-existing connection between him and the Scythe.

4.  Esoteric Research.

Primary Team: Marquis Teren Kiden, Saunee Ohtar.

Secondary Participants: Sir Lycan Maddox/Marquis Lycan Kiden.

STEP ONE: Examine the bodies of auras for any signs of magical corruption. Record findings for later evaluation.

STEP TWO: Examine the minds of Worgen for any signs of mental corruption or manipulation. Record findings for later evaluation.

STEP THREE: Examine the souls of Worgen for any signs of spiritual corruption. Record findings for later evaluation.

RESULTS:

Saunee Ohtar shared her own research and understanding pertaining to the creation of the Scythe of Elune which indicated that it was originally a sacred stave known as ‘the Staff of Elune’ until it was adorned with Goldrinn’s Fang, as part of a ritual performed to provide a sect known as the Druids of the Pack greater control over their feral lupine forms; which often left them lethally incapable of discerning friend from foe in frenzied states of fury and madness.

 A clear failure of the originator’s intentions.

5.  Produce Final Report.

Primary Team: Marquis Teren Kiden

Secondary Participants: Sir Lycan Maddox/Marquis Lycan Kiden.

STEP ONE: Collate the data from field, laboratory, library, and esoteric research tasks.

STEP TWO: Evaluate the data from field, laboratory, library, and esoteric research tasks.

STEP THREE: Produce full report for future use in addressing the concern of unabridged Worgenism against the potential for medical necessity.

RESULTS:

After extensive research, the following conclusions have been drawn.

While Worgenism contains physical components, there are several incongruities which make designating it as a pathogenic precursor to the condition. As such, the theory of Worgenism as a disease vector has been set aside.

Worgenism’s lack of susceptibility to the high efficacy of traditional Life, Elemental and chi-based magical corruption purifiers indicates that this condition is not, in fact, correctly labeled when perceived or denoted to be a ‘curse.’

Despite the loss of mental faculties and rapid onset of emotionally-inspired violent physical outbursts, the lack of cohesive thought or direction seems to contra-indicate any attempt to mentally or emotionally manipulate, charm, seduce, or otherwise manipulate Worgens to a specific purpose.

Historical records, documents, reports, tomes, and anecdotes tend to indicate that Worgenism is, in fact, a spiritual affliction which spreads rapidly through blood transfer and violence of purpose.

                    a. Worgens do not pass on this condition to their offspring.

                    b. Worgens in their Human forms do not pass on their condition to                         their non-Worgen romantic partners.

                    c. Worgens in the medical field have very low incidents of cross-                          infection with their patients, even when Personal Protection                          Equipment (PPE) is not correctly employed.

                    d. The Staff of Elune served its intended purpose until Goldrinn’s                          Fang was bound to it, at which juncture those exposed to the                          newly manifest artifact began to suffer similar corruption to                          those of the Worgens unless they were possessed of spiritual                          balance which respected both the Kal’Dorei Goddess, Elune,                          and the Wild God, Goldrinn.

                    e. Worgens purportedly originated with the Kal’Dorei; however                         there is equivalent evidence that Worgen were drawn to                         Azeroth from a distant world or plane of existence, and that                         Goldrinn also manifested on the Orc Homeworld prior to its                         destruction.

CONCLUSION:

Worgenism appears to be an infusion of spiritual force/energy/essence imparted and passed on by the Wild God, Goldrinn.

It is not without merit that Goldrinn and Worgen are proven weapons against the Burning Legion; whom the Wolf god is believed to be an ancient adversary to, and for whom non-Azerothian Worgen reportedly have facilitated the defeat of elsewhere.

As such, it is the belief of this body that Worgenism is, in fact, a spiritual malady similar in nature to possession. While there are many treatments for this condition, in all likelihood, no alchemical or magical solution for the condition exists for mass distribution.

HOWEVER, it is not only possible but likely that an afflicted Worgen making the journey to the Shrine of Goldrinn and currying the favor of the Wolf god could eventually be granted leniency and freedom from their state, now that their ancient enemies – the Burning Legion – has been broken and defeated.

How long it may take to curry such favor, or in what manner such favors might be gleaned would almost certainly require a spiritual communion with this deity outside of this author’s experience.

If anyone could earn Goldrinn’s favor, however, it would almost certainly be one of his children among the Worgen.

- Lord Teren Kiden; Marquis of Nishan