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Ghana’s position as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer is under a shadow. After losing the global top spot to Côte d’Ivoire years ago, Ghana now risks ceding its second-place ranking to an unlikely challenger—Indonesia. Ghana’s Declining Output New data from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) paints a troubling picture. Ghana’s cocoa production plunged from 654,000 tonnes in 2022/23 to just 530,000 tonnes in 2023/24, its lowest in 15 years. While a modest recovery to 600,000 tonnes is expected in 2024/25, analysts warn the rebound is far from guaranteed. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has flagged Ghana’s decline, highlighting three straight seasons of contraction. Even with an optimistic USDA projection of 700,000 tonnes this season, ICCO remains conservative. Behind the slump lies a mix of swollen-shoot disease, climate variability, illegal mining (galamsey) swallowing cocoa lands, and the chronic financial struggles of COCOBOD. Together, these factors have pushed Ghana into a precarious spot. Indonesia’s Slow but Steady Ascent While Ghana stumbles, Indonesia is quietly climbing the ladder. Production there has increased from 160,000 tonnes to 200,000 tonnes over the last three seasons. Although still a fraction of Ghana’s output, the consistency is striking. Indonesia’s momentum stems from targeted investments—rehabilitating farms, adopting improved cocoa clones, providing farmer training, and expanding cooperative financing. These reforms are steadily paying off, placing the Asian giant on a path of sustained growth. A Looming Shift in Global Rankings? On paper, Ghana still outproduces Indonesia by roughly threefold. But as experts note, “the direction of travel matters.” If Ghana’s structural challenges deepen while Indonesia compounds its gains, the margin could narrow dangerously. This potential upset is not immediate—but it is credible. Global observers, including Reuters and ICCO, stress that complacency on Ghana’s part would be costly. The Wake-Up Call for Ghana To secure its No. 2 spot, Ghana must: Launch aggressive replanting against swollen-shoot disease. Invest in inputs, extension services, and farmer financing. Shield cocoa lands from illegal mining. Enforce traceability systems to access premium global markets. Stabilize COCOBOD’s finances to restore farmer confidence. The Bottom Line Indonesia is not overtaking Ghana tomorrow. But the risk is no longer theoretical. Ghana’s fragilities, coupled with Indonesia’s steady climb, mean the cocoa battle is intensifying. Côte d’Ivoire may have claimed first place, but Ghana must fight harder than ever to avoid slipping further. Read the full article