दुश्मन या दोस्त? चीन-अमेरिका के बारे में क्या सोचती है दुनिया?

चीन के प्रति लोगों का नजारिया बदल रहा है। कोविड-19 महामारी के बाद कई देशों के लोगों का भरोसा चीन के राष्ट्रपति शी जिनपिंग पर बढ़ा है। इस बीच अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप के प्रति लोगों का नजरिया बिल्कुल उलट है। 2023 की तुलना में 2025 में ऐसी लोगों की संख्या बढ़ी है, जो चीन को अग्रणी आर्थिक शक्ति मानते हैं। दो साल पहले 25 देशों के अधिकांश युवा अमेरिका को दुनिया की टॉप अर्थव्यवस्था मानते थे। मगर अब इन्हीं देशों के 41 फीसदी युवाओं का मानना है कि चीन दुनिया की टॉप अर्थव्यवस्था है, जबकि 39% का मानना है कि अमेरिका शीर्ष पर है।

दुनियाभर के देशों में अमेरिका के प्रति भरोसा घट रहा है। प्यू रिसर्च सेंटर ने 25 देशों में चीन और अमेरिका के प्रति लोगों के बीच बदलते नजरिए पर सर्वे किया। पिछले सर्वे की तुलना में 25 में से 15 देशों में चीन के प्रति लोगों का नजरिया सकारात्मक हुआ है।

पूरा आर्टिकल यहां पढ़ें:

Global equity markets have been multiple cups from various fronts with respect to economic data, political and geo-political tensions followed by a long war outbreak between Ukraine- Russia which is keeping the commodity and the oil market active. On the flip side, the Indian equity markets have been outperforming the global peers by a good margin in terms of the index and broader market participation.

With IMF and professional forecasters trimming their global growth forecasts, fears of a global slowdown are turning into fears of a global recession. The ongoing war and inverted bond yields are the major reasons behind the scare. Overall GDP growth is one of the statistics which the government and businesses focus on.

As global equities struggle after the Federal Reserve’s latest hawkish tone, Southeast Asia’s growth outlook is making the region an investor favourite destination in the equity markets. The benchmark MSCI Asean Index has done much better than the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index and is set to outperform a gauge of global stocks for a third straight quarter. Most of the region’s biggest economies are expected to grow at least 5% this year, according to estimates gathered by Bloomberg, with the removal of pandemic-era restrictions offering a key boost.

In the above Asian market list, India seems to be at the top. The growing bullish sentiments to a reopening of Southeast Asia is ploughing back the domestic demand that’s making an inverse impact from a global slump. And with the tailwind from commodity exports, the region’s earnings outlook seems more promising versus most markets squeezed by slowing consumption and rising costs.

American Equity markets have been under pressure for the past few weeks amid ongoing talks of further Fed rate hikes and recession but the Indian equities have been resilient to these negative sentiments. The main reason behind the recent outperformance are below:

1. Falling crude oil prices

2. Better macro numbers

3. Stable auto sales

4. Recovery in the consumer demand

5. Flattening inflation levels

6. Dip in the global commodity prices

On the other hand, European markets are under steep pressure on the gas supply issue followed by rising inflationary rates and slowing demand. If we talk about Asian peers, most Asian countries are suffering economic crisis on many fronts where China is still under the clutches of corona crisis while countries like Sri Lanka are facing socioeconomic issues.

Overall, for the next couple of months, the equity markets will be very volatile and the economic data from the United States and Eurozone will be keenly tracked by the market participants. The next trigger for the markets will be the above-mentioned economic data followed by any negative war-related news between Ukraine-Russia or China-US may also fuel bearish sentiments in the equity markets. As far as the Indian markets are concerned, we expect any major correction due to the global meltdown may be utilized in a long-term portfolio comprising domestic-based sectors like Banking, Consumption, Cement, Real Estate, and some portion of information technology stocks.