Jul 20, 2018
Predicting Elections & Detecting Public Opinion in Web Browsing Figure shows the difference in preference for the Democratic candidate before versus after the Comey letter, specifically, the average Democratic preference on Fri-Mon across the six weeks prior to October 28, minus the average Democratic preference on Fri-Mon subsequent to October 28. The popular shift away from Clinton was stronger in the west and midwest of the country. In some cases, outliers can be understood as a result of small sample sizes (Wyoming,Oklahoma, North Dakota). However, overall it is clear that there were moves away from Clinton in some states with extremely close margins.
