#brisnet

California Chrome A Little Rusty? Free Belmont Stakes PPs

Can California Chrome win, what has turned out to be the biggest race of his life, on Saturday? The Kentucky Derby win made a trainer’s dream come true and now, beyond his wildest dreams, his colt could make horse racing history by winning the Triple Crown. California Chrome’s Preakness Stakes win has put this 3 year old colt in position to make horse racing history! A thoroughbred has not been…

With Beyer speed figures producing some wacky numbers lately, I'm probably going to approach this weekend's races using BRIS Speed Figs instead of Beyers and see how much of an effect that has on my handicapping. Though it will be smart to keep my eyes on the Beyer numbers just to see how they compare.

You know what I really want to use? Thoro-graphs, but they are 1. super expensive and 2. only offer one free race a week, so you can't really have too much practice with them. But maybe I'll have an opportunity to use them at some point and see how they fair.

I'm not a huge stats person, but when one really wants to critique a race they do come in handy. Following the Kentucky Derby (I), just looking at the final winning time just doesn't cut it in a race that has been run for 138 years-- especially when it was run in such an unconventional manner with a top field.

Trakus, Brisnet, and Beyer figures have been released, revealing a little more about the Derby horses' performances while shedding some light on what we can expect from the ponies participating in the Preakness (I) and or Belmont (I):

Bodemeister lost by 1 1/2 length in the final jumps, but traveled 41 feet less than I'll Have Another being so close to the rail.

Union Rags ran the fastest final 1/16 in 6.37 seconds, ultimately finishing 7th after rallying from 18th. Fourth-place finisher Went the Day Well was a close runner-up with 6.4 seconds

Creative Cause was beaten only 3 lengths back in fifth, but traveled enough feet more than the winner that he could have won by about a half length had he been closer down to the rail! (He traveled 29 feet further total than I'll Have Another)

Brisnet figures rate I'll Have Another's win as the fastest (111) since War Emblem's wire-to-wire win in 2002 (113). Animal Kingdom sported a 105 last year.

Beyer figures rate I'll Have Another's win as the slowest (101) since Giacomo's in 2005 (100). Andrew Beyer was much impressed with Bodemeister's performance.

A nice jump in Beyer figures from the Spiral: Went the Day Well improved in the span of one troubled start from an 92 to a 98!

Brisnet rates I'll Have Another's win faster than Groupie Doll's in the Humana Distaff (I). Beyer figures crown Groupie Doll over the Derby winner.

The big racing weekend is here, with a total of 11 stakes races including the Kentucky Derby on Saturday and the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. In this post I will focus on the undercard races for both days, and post separately about the 2 big races. Be aware that I will edit and update my posts as conditions present themselves. Also I will not use Brisnet's 'track bias' stats for reference for either day. Usually I wait until a racing meet is 2 full weeks old before there are reliable patterns. Friday's featured races at Churchill starts with the La Troienne Last year's Oaks runner up St. John's River has best pedigree befitting a winner at Churchill (Include-Adventurous Di). Longest distance win belongs to Maristar, who won at 1-3/16 at Wolverhampton (UK) in 2010. Plum Pretty is running consistently in Graded stakes races,with 3 at the top Grade 1 level over the last year. She ran twice at Churchill, and won last year's Oaks. Her best Brisnet # came in her other race here, a Grade 1 event last November, scoring a 103. Best overall pace belongs to Love Theway Youare, with a dead closing style,tho hasn't won a race in about a year. Top 3 selections right now are Plum Pretty (ML fave), Love Theway Youare, and Maristar (longest shot of this 7 horse field). EIGHT BELLES STAKES Volcat has best dosage numbers (After Market-Kentucky Whisper) for Churchill. Xunlei has the long distance race win of the field, 7 furlongs last time out, at Tampa Bay 4 weeks ago. My Due Process has the best recent win of this field, tho not a Graded win, it was a 125k futurity race last September. Good Deed is 1-for-1 at CD, winning an optional-claim 75k fillies race, and scoring a field-best 97. Good Deed also sports best form of the field, improving on that 97 with a 98 in her last race, the 75k Primadonna at Oaklawn Park last month. Could bounce from that number tho as she had improved sharply off a 66 race prior to it. Fastest horse to her runstyle here is Small Kitchen, an early/pressing type, running all 3 lifetime races at Fair Grounds, wide trip in 2 of them, but quick 2nd call numbers. Selections: Good Deed, Small Kitchen, My Due Process. The first 2 are morning line faves. Probably not much value to this race. EDGEWOOD STAKES is the one ungraded stakes I'll play this day. Koko Loca, the lone alternate-entry, has the best dosage (Kodiac-Pure Folly) of this field. Should she not get to run, I'd give the dosage edge to Dame Marie (Smart Strike-Crystal Crossing). Disposablepleasure and Goldrush Girl both won at 9 furlongs,the former in a Grade 2 race in November, the latter in a maiden race in October. Stephanie's Kitten thoroughly impresses here. She won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf for fillies on this track (101 Brisnet), along with a Grade 1 race prior to that. She seems the fastest of this group, winning races off the pace. She's been first or 3rd in all 6 lifetime starts. No horse presented itself with major edge via form. Miz Ida came close but after forging a new top in her last race, a 75k stakes event in March, I decided against her. Top selections right now are Stephanie's Kitten-Disposablepleasure-Goldrush Girl.