Lets start with a simple thing: Setting a timeline for both characters.

Dabi’s timeline goes like this:

- Touya is born - Fuyumi is born 1 year and a half later (Touya is 1yo) - Natsuo is born 3 years after Fuyumi (Touya is 4yo) - Shoto is born 3 years after Natsuo (Touya is 7yo) - Shoto starts training/Touya stops being trained by Endeavor (Touya is between 9-12yo) - Shoto gets his scar (Touya is 12-13yo) - Touya dies after Rei goes to the hospital (Touya/Dabi is between 12-14yo) - Dabi meets Shigaraki and joins the League of Villains (Dabi is 23yo) - Present time, 1 year since the beginning of the main story (Dabi is24yo)

(Note: This is an approximate timeline based on all information we got so far, like character ages and dialogue. For example, we know that Shoto’s scar incident happened around 10 years ago, when he was 5 years old.)

Hawks’ timeline goes like this:

- Keigo is born - Takami thief incident happens (Keigo is between 3-6yo) - Keigo is recruited by the HPSC (Keigo/Hawks is between 6-8yo) - Hawks’ training period on HPSC’s training program (Hawks is between 8-18yo) - Hawks opens his own agency (Hawks is 18yo) - Billboard charts (Hawks is 22yo) - Present time (Hawks is 23yo - same age as Fuyumi)

(Note: It’s hard to set a timeline for Hawks since we know so little about him. A few things I considered for this was:  a) Hawks was recruited after he got his quirk and was able to control it. He was a prodigy, he learned fast, but probably still took a while. b) Since he opened his agency at 18 and was took in very young, I considered 10 years a reasonable time for this training. c) I know the “Hawks’ dad used Hawks on his crimes” theory is a kinda popular one, but I don’t considered much of that being the case since we have no proof. Takami’s arrest could be anything during Hawks’ upbringing, but since Hawks talks about “Endeavor saving him”, it gives us an idea he was old enough to remember what happened.)

“Okay, but that still don’t explain why the Childhood Theory isn’t possible”

Let’s begin talking about the biggest one:

Childhood Friends + HPSC Training Program

I think Chapter 291 pretty much tells why that theory is officially debunked (here I want to give a thanks to Kailo, from Discord, for translating the leaks for us!):

Touya died alone, training where Endeavor used to. Not in the HPSC. Not in the training program.

Also, during Dabi’s whole speech (on broadcast and on Jakku), he NEVER talks about the HPSC. He talks about Hawks and his dad, about Hawks killing Twice and Jeanist. But not about the training program.

Maybe Dabi doesn’t even know about this program.

Another point that debunks this story is the timeline.

For Dabi and Hawks be able to meet inside the HPSC’s training program, it needed to be in Hawks’ first years in the HPSC.

Hawks was recruited when he between 6-8 years old, while Touya’s training with Endeavor stopped when he was between 9-11 years old because of Shoto.

And we saw Touya playing with his siblings during Shoto’s training in flashbacks. He couldn’t be going to a secret and seemingly strict program like the HPSC and still be frequenting his home to play with Natsuo and Fuyumi.

With this one out of the way, let’s go to another, little less popular, variation of this theory:

Childhood Friends, but without the Training Program part

I see this one around from time to time. It’s basically that they met and became friends until Hawks is recruited from the HPSC, then they lose contact due to that. 

(There’s also a second variation about they meeting somehow in the HPSC due to the fact that Endeavor was a famous hero that the Commission could work with, but I’m throwing this off for the sole reason of: Hawks would remember Touya since they were older. Hawks said he searched for information about Dabi, so it’s safe to assume that he could, yes, draw the connection if he was someone Hawks had contact during his 10 years in the HPSC.)

And why do I think this theory doesn’t make sense?

Because Keigo and Touya were born in literal opposite sides of Japan.

I feel like people forget this a lot, for some reason.

Keigo Takami was born in Kyushu, Fukuoka. Touya Todoroki was born in Musutafu, near Tokyo.

It’s, literally, the opposite side of Japan. I’m not kidding.

Just search the distance between Fukuoka and Tokyo, and you’ll have your answer.

And for the ones that are gonna ask “what about Hawks’ name, how does Dabi knows that?” - I think we’ll have to wait for the backstory around this Takami thief to give more insight into that.

TL;DR: Dabi and Hawks, besides having a similar age, live too far away to have meet for prolonged time, and Chapter 291 confirmed that Touya died training alone basically debunks this whole theory altogether. 

Act I: it's in the blood

We had a lot of big moments during this arc. Some more expected than others, but still as important as everything else... Probably.

If you had "Compress bloodline/face reveal" on your bingo card, though, I need to congratulate you. And also ask where are your last braincells. You should find them (or you shouldn’t).

Great-great-grandson of the Peerless Thief, Oji Harima. Do you guys remember him? From Gentle's arc? I won't blame you if you don't.

(Just let's take a second to agree that he looks pretty cool. Another nice design, Hori.)

I feel like a portion of this fandom already saw it coming. Maybe since Gentle’s arc, maybe since Compress’ line during Dabi’s reveal. Or maybe you just looked at Compress and thought “this guy seems like the type to have a mysterious and important connection to someone”.

And yes, I do agree that we’re having a bit too much during the end of this arc, especially regarding the sequenced revelations (5 chapters, 5 reveals. Hori, please, calm down. Let me breathe). 

This reveal, however, is not meant to be a big surprise - not for us, not for the heroes.

It’s a show. Compress’ show. We’re not meant to be surprised, but excited. This is his big moment. His first big moment.

And probably the last. So let’s enjoy while it’s here.

(There’s a bit of talk that can be made about Harima and his true ideals - since this is being spoken by Compress so expect a biased opinion - and the parallels between him and Compress, but this would be more about Harima than Compress himself. Let’s focus on our favorite showman for now.)

Act II: a once-in-a-lifetime performance

We don’t know what his plan is, yet, but he’s reuniting the League so they can leave without him. He even gets Skeptic (hey there, I didn’t see you for like 2 chapters in a row, are you ok?) as well. However, Mirio, Iida, Nejire and Jeanist are still up and fighting (and we still have Bakugou and Deku around that could, maybe, do something. They’re crazy enough to try).

Whatever he plans, needs to be executed with precision. He already sacrificed enough. It needs to work.

Since not only he lost a part of his right side (+ a part of his ass, sadly), but a part of his left shoulder, left side of his torso and left leg are also gone, as you can see in the panel below.

(Thanks for pointing this out, Caleb.)

The whole chapter is constructed to make us enticed by his show. From the paneling and angle choices to the dialogue lines. It’s, indeed, a big show. We’re meant to sit and enjoy.

There’s still a whole discussion about Compress’ death - mainly about if it’s better for him to die here and if it makes sense in the first place (hey Compress, couldn’t you just have compressed yourself free? Why you did it with only a part of your body now?), but we don’t know about his quirk outside of what it’s shown. We never got the exact description of it.

(If I can give you my honest opinion about it: I don’t want him to die. I don’t think he should. His narrative ending now feels... Weird. But if he dies- Well, I’ll enjoy every moment before I have to say goodbye to him.)

Act III: after the curtains close

Well, so far I talked about the obvious. Time to put the theorist braincells to work (I don’t know where they are, but they’re working. Hopefully-) and think about what comes next.

For now, I’ll be talking about exclusively about the aftermath in which Compress ends up not surviving this whole Houdini-like show. There is still the chance of him surviving, but I feel like it’s more interesting to think about the what if he doesn’t.

And why do I think that? Because of the following lines:

(Couldn’t make a less obvious death flag, could you, Hori?)

During the story until now, Compress was never really in a spotlight. He had his moments in a more background role. But, more importantly, is the fact that even if only in the background, Compress was always there. 

Helping the League. Supporting them, so they could be able to achieve their dreams.

Now that he himself will probably not be able to achieve his, he hopes that, at least, Shigaraki can achieve Harima’s dream. Reformation.

However, we know Shigaraki’s (and AFO’s, by some extent) objective isn’t exactly reformation but more like... Eradication. And, honestly? I think Compress is very aware of it.

“From destruction, comes creation.” (That phrase is probably not the exact one, but you get what I mean.) For Compress, Shigaraki and the League (note that he separates the League from the Paranormal Liberation Front. An interesting choice of words) are going to change society.

Even if that means that everything needs to end so something else begins in it’s place. Something that, maybe, is better than what’s gone. Maybe.

Compress is a character that, from what we saw so far, was very liked by the League. Even Mr. Touya I-don’t-care-about-anyone Todoroki seemed to have some bit of respect towards him.

He’s going to leave a mark. As he should. After all, this is quite the show, isn’t it? It can be forgotten that easily.

some last thoughts

Another interesting thing (that I didn't put with the rest because it’s more unrelated) is that, if Compress dies, that makes Shigaraki holding an even bigger responsibility than before: not only he has Destro’s ideals trusted on him through ReDestro, but now he’ll have Harima’s ideals trusted on him through Compress.

And we still have Twice, Toga, Spinner and Dabi. Each once with their own dreams and ideas of a “better future” for them.

Let’s see what Hori has for the future of this story. This chapter brings a good breather after the past 3 chapters. I personally enjoyed it a lot.

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Just a reminder that this is all based off my views and thoughts about the story. If you have something to say about it, feel free to do so! Also you can ask me anything about this as well :)

Like I said before, here’s more stuff that didn’t make into this post - Harima’s ideals, the parallels, the whole “could’ve Compress used his quirk on his whole body instead of only a part?” talk - because I feel like I’d go too off the road in this post. Maybe I’ll talk about it in the future. I also didn’t talk about other characters in the chapter since, you know, I wanted to focus on this beautiful magician instead ;)