I’m getting a general vibe that BL is/has been **taking off**, showing intense growth in terms of audience, investment, international market penetration between 2020-today—esp. looking at forward to what’s slated for 2022. Yea or nah? And I’m wondering whether/how you think “pandemic viewing” figures into this? New audiences? New production models? I just found your blog and I'm obsessed (analytical acumen + babies, all I've ever wanted).
OMFG I love questions like this. Thank you!
Is BL Taking Off?
> Growth in terms of audience, investment, international market penetration between 2020-today (end of 2021).
I think you’re right. A true analysis would have to look at YouTube unique watch numbers for BL over time plus things like new subscribers to GaGa & Viki who then watch mainly BL. That data is all proprietary. I don’t have access. So this is pure speculation. But I would guess if not exponential growth, 2021 is at least double 2019′s numbers.
I think we can assume huge growth in these areas (audience, investment, international market penetration) based on a number of factors, including increased output/forthcoming BL announcements from:
Korea (who watches and analyzes global viewer markets very carefully) and really only produces when it knows it has a growing market
Thailand, specifically GMMTV’s line up, they pay attention to not just their viewer numbers and most popular productions of the past, but also to which of their actors get the most sponsorship, awards, and social media attention. They’re doubling their BLs from last year - that’s very telling.
Active interest from newer countries with less developed film industries intent on breaking into BL (like Cambodia, Vietnam, and Singapore for example)
These will base their 2022 line ups, funding, and commissioned projects on what was effective/popular over the last 3 years: first internally then in surrounding countries and market shares. Also they absolutely take into account what is effective (penetrative) internationally (with nationalistic concerns around global social standing, increasing tourism, and political clout).
Don’t ever discount the power of pop culture to manipulate consumer sentiment on a global scale. I can assure you these countries know which side their BL bread is buttered on. How many of us are learning Thai or want to visit Thailand partly because of Thai Bl? You know that tourism accounts for 12-15% of Thailand’s gross GDP, right? How many people are learning Korean or tried Korean food for the first time because of Kdramas? BTS?
> I’m wondering whether/how you think “pandemic viewing” figures into this?
Significantly. I talked about this with regards to (what Hollywood calls) the Apple Pie Demographic (women ages 25-65). Historically Apple Pie is the hardest for the entertainment industry to target because of their habit of never actually sitting down to watch anything (because they have work, or laundry, or errands, or something their husband/child would rather watch instead). This is also the romance reader/consumer demo (which includes BL). Apple Pie is the mainstay target demo for goods (products) but NOT for the entertainment industry.
During lockdown it was this contingent that actually sat still for the first time in decades. I think it had a huge impact on streaming service watch numbers, including BL (but also stuff like Bridgeton and romantic Kdramas). (Yes I know we queers are out there too, but sadly, we are few if mighty and mostly not statistically significant on a macro scale. Sorry us.)
The age bracket of Apple Pie also means that Thai BL’s, in particular, likely garnered large new audiences off YouTube during lockdown. Because YouTube’s end users also skew older and into this demo (by comparison to say SnapChat or TikTok). (NOTE: Smart SEO managers would be promoting BL HARD on Pinterest because it’s the same demo again. So if you blog about BL, Pin those gifs and still of pretty boys kissing for greater traffic.)
I’m not sure they are quite this strategic, but back to the global pull, guess what else the Apple Pie demographic is historically responsible for? Planning weddings and family vacations. As soon a lockdowns stop, I think tourism to Thailand and Korea is going to seriously spike.
> New production models?
Hum. This I don’t think so much. The only really new production model I’ve seen in BL is long form commercials, like literally BL that is all one big product placement (Ingredients, Skinship). And that doesn’t look like it’s taking off. It seems more like places like Korea and Taiwan are revamping existing production houses to produce more BL.
Thailand is just expanding and growing what started in 2016 exponentially in all directions at once (it feels like). But I actually anticipate a bit of a contraction from Thailand in 2022, especially the pulps.
Japan, I do think, is changing slightly towards Korean-length BL series (they used to mostly just do live action yaoi movies). But these kinds of series (Given, Kieta Hatsukoi, Utsukushii Kare) are really just movie length shows broken up, so I suspect they are filming them in the same way and with the same kind of team as they always have since 2004. They are just airing them differently. And I think this shift is due to the rise in web series and streaming services more than anything else.
It’s possible production models have shifted in the Philippines and Vietnam because of BL, but I don’t know what it was before, so...?
> Talent, pairs, and the taint of BL
You didn’t ask about this but I think it’s an interesting thing to note.
In Korea it seems to be getting more and more “okay” for idols or former idols to safely do BL without too much of a residual pong. And I say this despite Hwall et al. Color Rush issues/whatevers. I don’t know if this is a social shift in younger actors away from homophobia, or if it’s just that there are so many KBLs in production now it’s becoming an acceptable gateway into the broader Kdrama industry.
In Thailand, BL is certainly now just another thing a Thai actor will likely do at some point in his career. There are so many BLs, and so many pairs have ended in bellyflops, I think we are going to see more and more Thai actors who just do a BL to check-off the “romcom” or “melodrama” box, or because it’s a stepping stone that’s expected of them. Possibly, this might translate to fewer and fewer co-branded pairs. Or short term pairs who only last the length of the project and promo. And more free-agent actors like Singto and Ohm who do lots of BL but with different partners. Seeing GMMTV 2022 field First, Khaotung, Mike, and Krist outside of their original BL pairings was eye-opening to say the least, and feels like a big step for Thailand.
I think these are all signs of increasing view numbers and broader demographic appeal. Not to mention ramped up production.
Final Thoughts
I have a whole stats thing I've been updating throughout this year. It monitors trends and production quantity, average series length, stuff like that. So I’ll have more hard data plus final numbers for you at the end of the year.
And I’ll link back to this post in that one.
(source)
