#assumption testing

Assumptions - we've all made them from time to time, sometimes they can be harmful, nowhere is this more true than in developing a business. When it comes to taking an idea to prototype, and then from prototype to product, there is a key ingredient to success that is all too often overlooked: assumption testing. In a nutshell, assumption testing is the systematic and objective analysis of the idea and the business model to determine where guesses and assumptions are being made. 

The key to success is to take the assumptions and determine how to turn them into actionable, answerable hypotheses. By taking this step, an entrepreneur can save themselves a lot of stress, time, and money. 

More than anything, assumption testing requires both you and your team to be painfully honest and objective - you get exactly as much out of this exercise as you are willing to put into it. 

Divide the assumptions into distinct aspects; this will make your approach much more efficient and effective. Every prompt should also be followed by: "...and how can this be measured and verified?" 

Problem/Solution Assumptions: 

a) Is the problem that you are solving significant enough to warrant a business? 

b) Is the problem  significant enough that somebody would be willing to pay for it? 

c) What alternative solutions exist (or have existed) that are not sufficient?

  d) Does your solution present a clear differentiating factor?

Market Assumptions:

a) Is your target market interested in a solution that you are offering?

b) Are your market demographics able to make a purchasing decision? (i.e. Don't market to the cashier, if you need the store manager to make the decision, etc.) 

c) Why has the competition not done what you are doing? (sometimes there's a very good reason, and you need to find out why.) 

d) Does your target market currently have the buying power to make the relationship economically feasible. (Every business has a customer, make sure that your target customers actually have cash in the bank!)

Operating Assumptions: 

a) How long can you run and scale before you require outside financing? (maybe you won't need any if you are bringing in excellent revenue, but again this is an assumption till proven otherwise.) 

b) Does your business rely on any key employees/partners/customers? (Who are they, and how can you decrease your concentrated risk?) 

c) Does your business take advantage of any trends/fads/patterns? (It likely does, and this needs to be understood to determine how to architect a long term strategy, think "Beanie Babies") 

d) What assumptions are you making about your key strengths? (How can you improve them and consolidate them?) 

e) What assumptions are you making about your key weaknesses? (How can you minimize these and protect your position?) 

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After giving birth to Cree, Tia began to have trouble breastfeeding, and she needed to drink fenugreek tea to help her lactate again. Only problem was that the fenugreek tea tasted absolutely horrible... So, she and her sister began to add different flavors to the tea to make it taste better. They added lavender, chamomile, and ginger, among others flavors.

Seeing this opportunity, Tia and Tamera approached MetaBrands with the problem statement and their solution, which was to bottle their concoction and sell it other moms who need help lactating but don’t want the nasty taste of the fenugreek tea.

Tia and Tamera did not originally have everything planned out on their own for the new tea right away. Tia knew she wanted it to be a cold, iced tea because she had always had it hot and identified this as a risk to drink around the baby, especially when moms are always moving around. Together, the twins were also interested in the idea of packaging the tea in a glass bottle.

The brand managers at MetaBrands suggested instead a smaller, 2.5oz plastic bottle that would be more convenient for moms to throw in their purses on the go. There was some hesitation because they did not want to have the perception of this being an energy drink, but the twins realized this would also be much safer alternative to the glass bottle.

The idea for the name came forward one day through Tia’s son. Tia was playing with her son Cree when she and him were making their hand sign for milk together. Suddenly Tia had a light-bulb moment and suggested naming the tea “Milky” because it’s made to help moms produce millk.

The brand managers loved it and next was taste testing. There were several ideas that the twins and the brand managers came up with including a “wild card”: chocolate. By the end of the taste testing, Tia and Tamera narrowed the flavors down to Strawberry and “Tropical”.

The last step? Assumption testing. For four days, a focus group of ten moms were brought in to test the tea. They had to vote on the amount and size of the bottle, the two flavor options, if the flavored fenugreek tea actually helped them lactate, and if they would buy the product. 

The final results of the focus group were:

Many loved the idea of being able to “pop it and go”

Strawberry won the focus group’s taste testing

Decided they would definitely buy it and recommend it to anybody!