The speculation is over, the arbitration process has been avoided, and Jose Bautista has signed his multi-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. The deal is in the range of $65 million over five years, with a club option for the sixth year. Obviously that's a lot of money, and many people are going to complain that no human being should be paid that kind of salary to play a game. I'm not going to bother explaining that baseball is a business, the rules of supply and demand, or market forces in general. Bautista is getting paid exactly what he and the club agreed he would be paid, and that's not really anyone's business except those two parties.
However, it is an enjoyable past-time of mine to analyse these baseball deals and see how they effect the fortunes of the team(s) involved. As far as the analysis goes for this deal, the biggest problem is Bautista's pre-2010 statistics. There is such a chasm between his 2010 season and every other year he's been in the league. He played for four teams in 2004 (his first year), including Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and finally Pittsburgh (returning to the team that drafted him). That year, and the next, were statistically insignificant. It wasn't until 2006 that he played any real number of games, 117 of them with the big club. That year, and 2007 were "fair to middling," and nothing about which to write home to Mom. With Vanderbilt star Pedro Alvarez, Venezuelan Jose Tabata, and others waiting in the wings, there wasn't much space for Bautista in Pittsburgh. He was then traded in late August, eventually for Robinson Diaz, who is now in a Rangers' minor league uniform. His first year+ with Toronto continued to show how there was potential in his play, but the numbers were still mediocre. Towards the end of the year, with help from Manager Cito Gaston, and coaches Dwayne Murphy, and Gene Tenace, he re-vamped his swing. In his last eight games of the season he hit six homeruns and knocked in 13 RBI. Something was up, but many people (including myself) put it off as some sort of streak.
The 2010 season, overall, proved that Bautista's new approach at the plate was definitely a significant upgrade from before. April was a cool month to start though, as he hit only four homeruns and batted .213. May was a great improvement, as he launch 13 dingers that month, bringing his average up to .251. He seemed that he was well on his way. Then June was a down month, only four homeruns, but an up-tick in his batting average to .260. It was July, August, and September that really cemented things for the burgeoning star, and he finished the 2010 season very strong.
BASEBALL REFERENCE STATS FOR JOSE BAUTISTA
Bautista picked up an all-star selection, was fourth in MVP voting, won a Silver Slugger, and had arguably the best year in the history of the franchise. The numbers you see in italicized bold are those that led the league, though the RBI, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ numbers are of special note as well. OPS+ is basically the measurement of how much better a player is than the average player in the league, and you can see that Jose's number was impressive. Furthermore, his play in the outfield was spectacular, as he finished tied for second with 12 assists in only 113 games.
As previously mentioned, there was something about Bautista's approach at the plate that seemed to be making all the difference. While certain members of the fan base and media began to talk about steroids, more discerning analysts began to look at his swing. His back foot is closer to the plate, and he crouched more, leaning back far more than his previous "straight up and down" stance. His timing mechanism was starting earlier, increasing the time and therefore the load behind his swing. He began to keep his hands back, allowing him to release towards the ball with tremendous bat speed and power. And the leg kick, far greater that any season before, was allowing his body far more space to open up and create power. Bautista had not gotten much physically bigger, but his swing certainly was more powerful and his use of it more intelligent.Â
[Special thanks to MLB Fanhouse for the swing analysis]
At the end of the season the Jays would continue to be able to control Bautista for at least one more year through the arbitration process. The team and player representative attempted to get a new contract signed before an arbitration meeting would be scheduled. No dice. Even though an arbitration meeting was scheduled for February 14, both sides still tried to work out some kind of a deal. Eventually the date came, and went, with both sides agreeing to postpone the hearing until February 18. Then the news came on the 17th that a new deal had been signed.
Leading up to this deal, I'd had a number of conversations with many people about Bautista and his value to the team. While I am extremely excited for him, and do think that he has great potential, I did not believe that signing him to any kind of long-term (more than three-year) or high dollar (more than $10 million) contract would be a wise decision for the team. One year of fantastic baseball does not a great player make. As far as I am concerned, there is just as much of a chance that Bautista could return to his pre-2010 form, and be a mediocre player in the MLB. Five years at $65M (with an option for a sixth year) seems like an awful lot of money and time for a guy who has had only one mentionable season.
This is especially true for a team that only recently crawled out from underneath the gargantuan contract signed by Vernon Wells. Prior to that, the team, under the dying tutelage of former General Manager J.P. Ricciardi, had luckily squeaked out of paying former star Alex Rios what was left of his hefty contract. Alex Anthopolous, the current GM, who had been Ricciardi's right hand man, brokered the Wells deal in the 2010-2011 off-season, seemingly heralding an era where the team would be making more intelligent and measured decisions.Â
Then comes this new Bautista deal. Again, please don't confuse my reticence to accept this deal as a complete indictment of it, or as the beginning of a pessimistic view towards Anthopolous. I believe that the new GM has done a fantastic job preparing this team for the next five+ years. He has engaged in a slow, steady, measured approach; that nets the team as much potential in the draft as possible; prospects constantly moving up through the system; and, eventually, intelligently signed free agents. This is likely the only way to succeed in the stacked division that is the American League East; competing against the deep pockets of the New York Yankees, and Boston Red Sox; the fantastic improvement of the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays; and the frustrated but improving Baltimore Orioles.
This deal is incredibly similar to the deal the Atlanta Braves signed with one of their newest players, Dan Uggla. While Uggla certainly has the same level of potential asBautista, the former certainly more previous success than the latter. I'd say theUggla deal is probably too rich for the player, and that may end up blowing up in the face of Braves' GM Frank Wren.
I guess what I'm saying is that I'm surprised that the team would sign a player of Bautista's mostly un-tested calibre to a deal of such length and at such dollars. His potential would certainly indicate that the contract is perfect, but potential isn't everything. I honestly believe this is a situation of the club worrying that the embarrassment of losing an under-control commodity to another team, and watching that commodity continue being wildly successful, would be unbearable. And who can blame them? I am sure this is exactly where J.P. Ricciardi sat when readying for contract negotiations with Vernon Wells and his agent. In fact, I'm sure this is were just about every GM ever has sat, wondering if they should let a young player go, worrying that perhaps his on-field play may never live up to the potential or hype.
Any way you cut it, this deal is very risky for the Toronto Blue Jays. Of course every deal has its risks; and, so far, Alex Anthopolous has shown that he seems to have decent skill at assessing risk.
I won't go as far as to say that the deal was a mistake, as only time can be the arbiter of success.
