#adaptive cycles

  A few weeks ago, I stumbled across an article that linked the application of adaptive cycles from ecology to finance.

In addition to its financial utility, I found that many of the ecological principles found in adaptive cycles could also be applied to competitive market environments:

(Edited Excerpt)

In an adaptive cycle, early growth is rapid as individuals of many species companies arrive in a newly opened space and seek to exploit a plethora of vacant ecological niches market segments. Connections are initially simple and sparse, but over time many interconnections and mutual dependencies develop.

  The system therefore increases in both 'wealth' and connectedness, as flows of energy and materials capital become larger and more complex. Biological Overall 'wealth' confers the potential for novelty innovation, allowing the system to adapt in disparate directions as circumstances warrant.

  Connectedness permits increasing stability, through the development of negative feedback loops, which help to regulate conditions conducive to life sustainability.

  As time passes, rapid growth gives way to conservation. Inter-dependencies become highly specialized and self-regulation becomes fine-tuned and sophisticated. Efficiency is maximized as niches are fully occupied, and flows of energy capital and nutrients resources are tightly controlled by the existing biota market leaders. This represents the end of the growth phase. 

Relatively few opportunities are left for newcomers or novel strategies, hence diversity stabilizes or declines. The system is 'rich,' but becomes more rigid, and therefore less resilient in the face of potential shocks, which can propagate rapidly through a highly inter-connected system with smaller margins for error than it had in its generalist phase. An increasingly brittle ecosystem market becomes, in Holling's words, "an accident waiting to happen".

  When something does push the ecosystem market outside of the boundaries it can tolerate, the long growth phase can morph into a rapid and chaotic release and reorganization phase, where nutrients capital and energy resource stores previously tied up can suddenly be liberated. This can be associated with a considerable loss of complexity, but also with much greater potential for generalist strategies and for novelty innovation.

  I found it uncanny how easily the narrative of an adaptive cycle could apply to the emergence, stability, collapse, and rebirth of an industry. 

It happens in nature, and it happens in our markets.

I think it’s time we recognize the cycle, and as innovators, develop a model that tracks industrial progress through each stage, in an effort to preemptively generate novel strategies in the anticipation of collapse.

Mr. Chen's modified bike, as seen at the SF Pride Parade.

This gentleman, with his modified bicycle, was just one of the things that caught our eye at Sunday's Pride Celebration. It was about 5 PM when we met up with him.

He didn't speak English, so with the help of an impromptu interpreter we we able to figure out that his name is Chen Ke Ming and he's 82 years old. He was trained as an engineer in China, came to the states from Guangzhou 17 years ago, and now lives in San Francisco.

He said he originally built the bike for his grandson, but now that his grandson is off to college, he's reclaimed it and rides it around. (At least we think he rides it around; we didn't actually see him riding, rather he was walking it on the sidewalk.)

The add-ons seems to be fashioned from either a walker or some sort of cart with caster wheels, and Mr. Chen has clamped the various armatures onto the frame to ensure that the front two side wheels are touching the ground at all times, while the rear two side wheels have some clearance room to allow for slight banking and maneuvering.

From the Wall Street Journal.

Multiple sclerosis forced Helene Hines to stop running marathons, but it didn't keep her from entering them.

The sport of handcycling is growing across the country. Many competitive athletes turn to handcycling after being forced to give up their favorite sport for medical reasons and it's also an alternative way for older Americans to keep in shape.

At last fall's ING New York City Marathon, Mrs. Hines, age 63, sailed across the finish line in two hours and two minutes, the best time among women in the race's fast-growing hand-cycling category. "I yelled: 'Grandma won! Grandma won!' " says Mrs. Hines, a Garden City, N.Y., grandmother of two who started hand cycling in her 50s.

Hand cycles are tricycles, often recumbent, powered by hand cranks. In recent years they've become increasingly popular for racing, exercising and recreation. They're a good option for anyone whose lower body is compromised but who retains good hand and arm strength, says David Lee, assistant director of the University of New Hampshire's Northeast Passage, a facility that provides recreational sports programs for disabled people.

Early adopters in the 1990s were primarily people with spinal-cord injuries, but today the cycles also are being used by people with age-related leg and hip problems, others sidelined by injuries—and even able-bodied people who just like the idea of spinning along on hand power. Last year more than 100 hand-cycle racers registered for the New York marathon (which doesn't allow able-bodied hand cyclists), up from only about 10 a decade ago, says Bob Laufer, the race's coordinator for adults with disabilities.

There are no nationwide statistics on hand cycling, but Bike-on.com, an online store, sold more than 300 hand cycles last year—about double the figure of five years ago, says owner Scott Pellett. The cycles start at about $1,500 for wheelchair-height models suitable for riding around the neighborhood and can hit $4,000 or more for sleek, low-to-the-ground performance cycles. High-end racing equipment can run $6,000 or more, Mr. Pellett says.

Mobility and More

Recreational recumbent models place the cyclist comfortably on a cushioned seat with a back rest, legs extended, with foot rests on either side of the front wheel. Racers often prefer kneeling models, which provide superior leverage on the cranks; another racing style involves positioning the athlete nearly horizontal, face up, for aerodynamic advantage.

Bill Schwarz gets plenty of reactions while hand cycling, including 'Nice bike, mister!' from children

Most hand cycles are steered like traditional bicycles, by moving the front wheel. Others, such as the Freedom Ryder from Brike International Ltd. in Tualatin, Ore., are steered by leaning in the direction you want to go—a feeling the company likens to turning while skiing.

Given its similarity to bicycling, hand cycling is often a choice for cyclists forced to give up their favorite sport for medical reasons. Former long-distance bicyclist Bill Schwarz, 66, of Kinderhook, N.Y., switched to hand cycling in 2003 due to numbness in his feet and legs caused by an autoimmune disease.

Mr. Schwarz not only welcomes the opportunity to stay on the road, but also embraces the novelty of hand cycling. As a bicyclist, he says, he drew little attention, but when he's on a hand cycle "heads rip around." He adds, "My favorite is the responses I get from children. It's like, 'Nice bike, mister!' "

Riders have discovered other benefits of hand cycling as well. Nadine McNeil, a New York City resident in her 40s, says hand cycling has helped her build strength in her right arm, which was weakened by a stroke. Ms. McNeil, who rides with Achilles International, a New York nonprofit that works with disabled athletes, still needs to tape her right hand to the crank to keep it in place, as she has since she began hand cycling five years ago. But while her weak arm at first was just carried along by her strong one, she says that now both arms can propel the cycle. Hand cycling "has done more for me than any other therapy in terms of strengthening my right arm," Ms. McNeil says.

And Joe Dowling, a 71-year-old polio sufferer from Old Greenwich, Conn., who competes in both hand cycling and wheelchair races, says the low-lying design of the hand cycle he rides brings you closer to nature. While hand cycling, he says, "you never know when a rabbit is going to jump over your front wheel."

Caution and Cash

On the other hand, that low-slung design means hand cycles might not be seen by cars. "If I were to take it on the road [in New York] I might as well kill myself," says Mrs. Hines, who instead works out in Central Park when it's closed to cars. Some hand cyclists stick to parks, bike trails or country roads, while others put a tall orange flag on the back and hope for the best.

How to Get Rolling

Find a hand cycle that fits your style of riding. If you like to go slow and enjoy the scenery, consider a chair-like "upright" model for comfort. For a vigorous workout, get a low-to-the ground recumbent style.

Start with short distances and work up gradually. Four miles is a great first-day workout. Arms aren't as strong as legs; shoulder injuries are a risk with overtraining.

Use a flag on the back of the bike to make yourself more visible—particularly if you are riding a recumbent cycle.

Stay on flat ground at first; hills can be strenuous. As you build arm muscles and riding skill, you'll be able to tackle progressively steeper slopes.

Practice turning in a parking lot before you hit the trail.

Keep to pavement unless you are using a hand cycle intended for off-road use.

Mixed-use recreational paths and rail trails—generally flat, paved and traffic-free—are great for hand cycling.

A bigger issue for some people is the price of hand cycles. Eileen Granahan, a 54-year-old pediatrician in Kingston, N.H., rented a hand cycle from Northeast Passage last year when she broke her foot. Happy with her stronger upper body after three months of hand cycling, she looked into buying a cycle, but she balked at the price. "Cost is the only reason I haven't gone on to continue hand cycling," she says.

Another drawback to hand cycling is that arm muscles are smaller and therefore less powerful than leg muscles, which can make even small slopes a major endeavor for some riders.

The Big Payoff

Still, competitive hand cycling is becoming more popular, in part because it's less punishing than wheelchair racing, athletes say: Wheelchairs require a lot of hunching over, and the racer's hands take a pounding as they leave and return to the moving rims.

Hand cyclists race in separate divisions both at bicycling events and at marathons. The U.S. Handcycle Federation, an Evergreen, Colo., nonprofit, sponsored 19 events at bicycle races last year, involving 167 different hand cyclists, says director Ian Lawless. In the federation series, racers are grouped into four levels of disabilities, he says, and able-bodied people can race with the least disabled.

There has been some debate in the racing community about whether hand cyclists belong at marathons, because the cycles' gears mean that, unlike wheelchairs, they don't derive all their power directly from the racer. That distinction is sometimes reflected in a big disparity in the prize money for hand cyclists and wheelchair competitors. At last fall's New York marathon, for instance, the top male and female hand-cycle finishers received $500 each, compared with $15,000 each for the wheelchair winners.

From road.cc.

25 miles on a bike might not seem very far to some of us, but for one little girl it's another part of a long and amazing journey. When Lauren Booth, now nine, contracted bacterial meningitis at the age of just six weeks it left her with brain damage, loss of hearing and cerebal palsy affecting her arm and leg. Doctors feared that she'd never walk or talk, but now she's one of the most talented young cyclists in the country.

Lauren spent three weeks battling the illness and had to be resuscitated during her stay in hospital. At the age of four, and frustrated with her restricted mobility due to her disabilities, she was given a specially adapted mobility tricycle by the Meningitis Trust.

The trike gave her the independence she craved and from that point on she's never looked back. Before long she was defying her medical assessment by learning to ride a normal bike in spite of her balance issues, and in 2008, not satisfied with just riding her bike, she took up racing.

Lauren is now a talented road racer, ranking 4th in 2009 (rider category D) in the British Cycling points table. She's also keen to pursue track riding, and when she turns ten on March 19 she'll be celebrating with a trip to Newport Velodrome. She's been to watch UCI World Cup events a number of times (to cheer on Sir Chris Hoy, who's her hero) and along with her family she's already raised over £17,000 for the Meningitis Trust.

Lauren's latest adventure is a 25-mile sponsored ride from her home in Chippenham to the head office of the Trust in Stroud, to celebrate both the Trust's 25th anniversary and her 10th birthday. Lauren says of the ride, “The Meningitis Trust gave me a trike when I was little. I now really love cycling. I hope my ride will be fun and raise lots of money."

If you'd like to support Lauren on her ride, head on over to her Virgin Money Giving page. We at road.cc wish her all the best with her future cycling exploits!