Global chemicals seen on a gradual recovery path, with the Iran-US deal a key catalyst: 360 ONE
The global chemicals industry is showing signs of stabilisation after a prolonged downturn, according to 360 ONE Capital.
A sharp rebound remains unlikely in the near term.
The framework is directly applicable to Indian chemical producers.
Sentiment has improved from cautious stabilisation to measured optimism heading into 2HCY26 and 2027.
However, broad-based restocking is still absent.
Customer inventory correction is largely complete.
That means future volume growth is likely to be consumption-driven rather than inventory-led.
Agrochemicals outlook
The segment outlook maps closely onto India.
Agrochemicals appear to be emerging from a prolonged downturn.
The improvement is supported by better volumes, healthy acreage and grain demand.
However, Chinese oversupply and generic competition continue to pressure pricing.
That makes CY26 a transition year.
A more meaningful upturn is expected in 2HCY26 and CY27.
Commodity and specialty chemicals
Commodity chemicals should benefit from tightening supply caused by Middle East disruption.
Slow normalisation could support sustained price improvement.
Specialty demand linked to semiconductor materials, AI infrastructure, healthcare, water technologies and energy storage is expected to drive growth.
Iran-US deal as catalyst
The report flags the Iran-US peace deal, expected June 19, as a major near-term event for crude and the chemical value chain.
For Indian producers, the framework validates a cautious-but-improving outlook.
The key monitorables are crude direction after the deal, the pace of agrochemical and commodity recovery, and whether structural feedstock inflation delays the upturn.
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