#$usdjpy

Market participants, remembering the impact of Brexit, have their focus on France this weekend. The last thing I want to do is add into the mix my futile hunches regarding the probabilities of various winning candidate permutations. Furthermore, wI won’t even speculate how the market will react to any particular second round match-up. The purpose of this note is to discuss a rare, tactical conviction over this weekend. Staying COMPLETELY AGNOSTIC as to whether the election outcome will be taken as Eurozone positive or negative, consider USDCHF.  Scenario I The outcome is perceived as negative; fueling French EU exit fears (‘disenfrancising’) and risk-off trades such short USDJPY, short equities, and long US Treasury bonds are expected to benefit. EURUSD is likely to fall and underperform CHF. However, given the close linkages, CHF is likely to be dragged down by the EUR and, unlike JPY, underperform the US dollar. So, in this scenario, we expect USDCHF to gain.

Scenario II The outcome is perceived as positive; risk-on trades, such as long equities, are expected to benefit. US and European risk-free rates are likely to trade higher.  EUR will likely outperform CHF and possibly by a lot, as Swiss interest rates are more pinned, and USD will rally against safe harbor currencies such as JPY and CHF. So, in this scenario, we expect USDCHF to appreciate.

To re-cap, USDCHF goes up, or USDCHF goes up.

It is important to underscore that when I talk of tactical conviction, I don’t mean “I am positive that this trade will make money,” rather I mean “I am convinced that this is a positive expectation trade.”

Markets are finicky, and even with the logic above I can assign no higher than 60% chance of being correct.

And we I am fully prepared to be completely wrong.

Hence, I am purposefully posting at the end of the trading day not to entice the reader to follow our trade, but to share and “timestamp” my thinking, which typically applies to the long investment horizon, but in this unique case may have a short-term value.

I believe it may have began...Long the Pound and the Euro #euro #dollar #pound #forex

I have been “Pound”ing the table on the Euro for the past few weeks trying to bring up the fact that consensus just may be wrong. Both the Pound and the Euro today put in massive reversal bars, the pound off of lows (besides the flash crash) and the Euro off of major multi year support.

The Euro is not clearly above this multi year support (two red lines from prior lows) and you have a DEFINED…

Here is the Euro's Chance Against the Dollar #money #investing #dollar #euro

The Dollar Bulls had 3 weeks to smash the Euro…and they fumbled on the one yard line.

I’m no expert and things can change fast (like they have for your parity lovers), but the Euro is currently displaying a failed breakdown on a Weekly Timeframe and reversal.

If this resolves higher, getcha popcorn ready. A lot of big boys are short euros and long dollars.

USDJPY Spiked and Gold didn’t Budge – Watch Gold

Watch Gold here overnight. Someone spiked the USDJPY and GOLD didn’t budge and even grinded higher. 

Sitting at 1142 right now, if “whoever” (BOJ) is devalueing the Yen stops for a minute Gold is spiking. 

Trade idea with the miners was Long through 18.88. 

I am long the Gold Futures Here below. 

Watch the Peso Here – Big Bull Flag Brewing

The Mexican Peso – after the post election 10% – is holding the highs. I was thinking with the price of oil rising, and oil being a main export of Mexico, that the Peso could possibly blow off and top. I am not so sure that is the case anymore, or there is something else going on.

Right now the Mexican Peso has put in a big ass bull flag and if this breaks should test the highs into the mid 20’s.…

Quick Charts. BOJ can’t devalue the Yen anymore. I think they just lost it. Check it out. 

Check out Gold. Most oversold won the Daily in a Decade. Still. 

RSI 4 he breakout now. 

Gold will finally get his day. Long Idea $GDX at 18.88. 

Major Macro Forces are at Work Here $SPY $TLT $USDJPY $DXY $GLD #invest #market #putcallratio

A lot of credit to David Larew (@thinktankcharts) and @Bamabroker. This is just me synthesizing their commentary. Links through out the article to their tweets.

I haven’t always followed Macro trends but the more I do the more important I think it is to watch. I don’t know if unprecedented is the right word but there are some major macro trends right now. There is a global chess match taking…

China just took a Ship, Dollar is getting Smoked Here. Gold Finally BOUNCING

Look at the Yen, immediately. That is a long way to fall/pull in and I think if you haven’t been trying Gold this is the time. In BS reason to sell off would have people unloading shares and I think it has started.

Down we go, and Gold is now Up on the day.