#$swft

Back in July Swift Transportation started a move higher out of consolidation. I noted it here. Since then the stock has moved up 27% above the break out area at 17.35. So why do I think it is time to re-up your position or initiate a new one in a stock that has moved that far in 3 months? The answer is in the chart.

The chart below shows the consolidation that occurred from February through to July, and then the break out higher. It ran up near $20 before consolidating again for 5 weeks. That changed again in September as the price took another turn to the upside. This time there was a pause at 22 and then a retracement into the end of last week. A warmly received earnings report now has the stock back at 22 and pushing higher.

Transportation stocks have been in the dumper for a long time. I noted this morning how that looks like it might be changing here. One of the worst ares in this space has been trucking. Knight Transportation ($KNX) has been a leader in turning around out of its stock slump. But the recovery has been a slow grind. Today it looks like it may get some company.

Swift Transportation ($SWFT) finally found a bottom in January and had a promising bounce. that stalled quickly as it moved into February, and the stock moved sideways for 3 months. It retraced 61.8% of the bounce on a pullback in to May and then found support. Since May it has been moving sideways ion a channel between 14.35 and 17.35. As it has consolidated the SMA's have all come together. This often precedes a move in a stock price. The 20, 50 and 200 day SMA are all within a 8 cent range going into Wednesday's close.

The price action has been strong. Into Wednesday's close it is printing a bullish Marabou candle and pressing on the top of the range. The RSI is making a higher high and the MACD is crossed up, positive and rising. Even the Bollinger Bands® are opening to the upside to allow the price to move higher. All it needs now is a close over 17.35. Keep an eye on it. Blink and it might move too swiftly for you to catch it.

We are closing in on Spring break here in North East Ohio, and I am jonesing for a roadtrip.  Unfortunately the wife is tied up (not literally) so it will just be me and the kids.  The whole planning process got me thinking though.  And for me everything ties back to the stock market so those thoughts turned to the transports.  And specifically the trucking industry.  

This group has been turning around one by one.  5 stocks in this group made it through my review process last weekend and one name, Swift Transportation ($SWFT) made the Top 10 for Premium Subscribers.  It triggered and I bought it for clients.  Today it showed up for the first time on my bullish scan so I thought I would share it all around.  Kind of a good deed for Easter.

The chart above is the one I shared with subscribers Sunday.  The hold over the break out level Monday (continuation) and move above the 200 day SMA were the trigger.  You can see two potential targets to the upside at about 22 and 23.50.  There is also support from the rising MACD and rising and bullish RSI.  And the Bollinger Bands® may be opening to the upside.  We are rising this trucking stock higher.  How about you?

The transportation sector has had a great 2014. That is until the last month. With the fall in crude oil the railroad stocks, a big part of this sector took a hard right to the face. Many of them transport crude oil. That is not all that they transport, but that is a story for another day.

Left in their wake, the trucking stocks have had mixed results. Some are falling and some have just spent the time consolidating. But doesn't cheap crude oil lead to cheap gas and diesel? Sorry for attempting to add a narrative. What is important is not how they should react but how they are starting to react.

Here are two companies, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, $JBHT, and Knight Transportation, $KNX, that look ready to shift gears and drive higher into year end for whatever reason.

J.B. Hunt is one that consolidated. In this case between a price of 79.60 and 82.60. That is until Tuesday. Breaking the range higher, it carries a Measured Move with it to 91. And momentum indicators support it. The RSI held at the mid line and is rising again. And the MACD is crossing up, also a buy signal.

Knight Transportation went through a bit of a pullback. This reset the RSI lower, while it held over the mid line. The MACD is now leveling as the RSI is rising. The price also bounced and is now crossing the 20 day SMA as it moves higher.

Keep an eye on Heartland Express, $HTLD, Swift Transportation, $SWFT, and Werner Enterprises, $WERN, as well. All of their charts are looking similar.

And it is not just highly educated jobs which will drive U.S. inflation higher... Something strange is afoot in long-distance trucking that is also bedeviling other industries: Many jobs that pay well - and don't require expensive degrees - are going unfilled for months... Trucking firms, while accustomed to high driver turnover, say hiring is tougher than ever. "It's probably the most difficult recruiting environment... I've seen in my 26 years in the business," said Scott McLaughlin, president of Stagecoach Cartage & Distribution LP,  a family-owned firm in El Paso, Texas. About 100 of Stagecoach's 250 employees are long-distance drivers - and retaining them is as hard as recruiting. "Every driver I've got could leave here today and have any number of jobs," Mr. McLaughlin said.

(WSJ)

Speaking of job openings, last week's JOLTS survey climbed to its highest since June 2007... The number of job openings in the U.S. economy climbed to the highest level in 7 years, even as the number of people being hired was little changed from recent months, according to the Department of Labor's monthly job openings and labor turnover survey, known as JOLTS. Employers were seeking to fill more that 4.6 million jobs in May, up from 4.5 million the month before, according to the survey. The last time so many jobs were open was June 2007. The rate of hiring was little changed for the fourth month in a row, with about 4.7 million workers starting new jobs. (FusionMarketSite)

Why you care about the trend in job openings... @SoberLook: Chart (from Credit Suisse): Ratio of US job vacancies to unemployed workers vs. 2-yr treasury yield