#$ssys

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Stocks with the highest positive earnings drift: MXPT, VVUS, SSYS, KRO, CMTL, RUBI, CECE, AMOT, NWPX, TSL.

 YOUR WEEKLY EDITION OF THE Top 10 Long/Short Estimize Signal Scores Monday, March 13, 2017

The Estimize Signal has identified the following 20 stocks to have the highest likelihood of positive and negative drift around their earnings today. The Signal is calculated by consolidating several predictive factors within Estimize’s earnings estimates collected from 45,000 buy side, independent, and amateur analysts.

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At Estimize, we've always done extensive research on our crowdsourced earnings estimates. Every week, we'll be sharing some of our findings to help you effectively leverage Estimize's more accurate and representative earnings estimates. Please get in touch with us at [email protected] to discuss.

Top 10 Positive Signal Scores

Highlest likelihood of a positive pre/post earnings drift

1 MXPT MaxPoint Interactive Wed, Mar 8 99.73 post 2 VVUS Vivus Wed, Mar 8 99.73 post 3 SSYS Stratasys Thu, Mar 9 95.87 post 4 KRO Kronos Worldwide Fri, Mar 10 95.23 post 5 CMTL Comtech Telecomm. Wed, Mar 8 92.53 post 6 RUBI The Rubicon Project Tue, Mar 14 84.81 pre 7 CECE CECO Environmental Thu, Mar 9 79.09 post 8 AMOT Allied Motion Technologies Tue, Mar 14 71.40 pre 9 NWPX Northwest Pipe Company Wed, Mar 8 68.82 post 10 TSL Trina Solar Limited Mon, Mar 20 67.23 pre

Bottom 10 Negative Signal Scores

Highlest likelihood of a negative pre/post earnings drift

1 FNHC Federated National Holding Co Thu, Mar 9 -99.73 post 2 HZN Horizon Global Corp Thu, Mar 9 -99.46 post 3 GTT GTT Communications Wed, Mar 8 -99.46 post 4 RMTI Rockwell Medical Tue, Mar 21 -96.52 pre 5 ACTG Acacia Research Thu, Mar 9 -94.32 post 6 KEYW KEYW Holding Wed, Mar 8 -93.91 post 7 SCVL Shoe Carnival Thu, Mar 23 -89.85 pre 8 REIS Reis Inc Thu, Mar 9 -89.63 post 9 MNKD MannKind Thu, Mar 16 -85.86 pre 10 ENT Global Eagle Entertainment Mon, Mar 20 -84.10 pre

We've tested the Signal's predictive power as a stock selection signal in isolation over the last 5 years and it produced 23.1% returns and 1.75 sharpe. The Signal is best utilized in a dollar neutral portfolio consisting of the top and bottom decile of scores rebalanced daily at the open using a new score delivered via email or FTP/API. Want to get set up with premium access? Email us »

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Ulta Beauty (ULTA): Many investors hold Ulta in high regards due to a track recorded extending of topping analyst’s top and bottom line targets. The cosmetics company delivered at least 20% growth in each of the past 8 quarters with double digit gains in key same store sales metrics. When you factor in that similar businesses struggled in recent years, Ulta’s gains look even more remarkable. Robust fundamental support over this time led to a predictable boom in the stock price. Shares boasted a 36% increase in the past 12 months and historically jump about 5% immediately through the print. Investors should still proceed with caution, considering Ulta faces tough comparisons and irrationally high earnings targets.

What are you expecting for ULTA? Get your estimate in here!

VeriFone Systems (PAY): Shares of VeriFone tumbled 22% in the past 12 months on the back of weak third and fourth quarters results to cap off fiscal 2016. Management’s comments following the third quarter, in particular, caused analysts to cut forward estimates. To offset additional losses, the company initiated a new restructuring program focused on streamlining operations and designing a long term growth strategy. Apart of that includes adopting Apple, Google and Samsung mobile payment applications into pre existing electronic payments systems. Nonetheless, currency headwinds, depressed consumer spending and ongoing restructuring costs could hamper financial performance for the fiscal first quarter.

What are you expecting for PAY? Get your estimate in here!

Stratasys (SSYS): 3D Systems dismal top line performance in Q4 portends weak results for Stratasys tomorrow morning. Financial performance for SSYS maintains a steady slide down with results in each of the past 5 quarters recording negative growth. In fact, sales for the third quarter missed the Estimize sales target by nearly 10%, but the stock still trades significantly higher compared to a year earlier. Shares jumped 25% in the past 12 months and tend to increase by 1% immediately through the print.

What are you expecting for SSYS? Get your estimate in here!

Zumiez (ZUMZ): The company reported a 14.3% increase in net sales with comparable sale gains of nearly 10% for the month of January. In the most recent monthly sales report management also raised fourth quarter sales and earnings guidance to the range of 60 to 66 cents per share. The biggest drivers of this recent success includes a more robust ecommerce platform, efficient customer service, and expanded lifestyle lineup. Despite a rosy financial outlook, the stock continues to struggle with share value down 15% in the past 3 months.

What are you expecting for ZUMZ? Get your estimate in here!

El Pollo Loco (LOCO): The company’s share of ups and down have driven investors loco during earnings season. After a strong second quarter which topped analyst’s targets on both the top and bottom line, LOCO followed it up with a disastrous third quarter that did the exact opposite. Consequently shares are down nearly 10% in the past 3 months and historically struggle through the 30 days after a report. The biggest concerns this quarter comprise rising labor costs and new store opening expenses and its impact on the bottom line.  

What are you expecting for LOCO? Get your estimate in here!

All of these stocks have gotten killed the past 30 months and are starting to put in long term bottoming formations. Look Below.

  All of them look the same including bubble parabolic highs followed by parabolic crashes.

These have now shown signs of life and long term bottoms. So the answer to my question is it is very possible and I believe they have. I have not touched these for a while but 3D printing is definitely in the future and will play a large role in many environments so I am looking at these again. Here are some close ups of the two best charts I see.

DDD has bottomed at the beginning of 2016 and gone sideways holding the pullback low for much the year. As long as this holds 12.50 I think this continues higher over the near term. With a 22% short float anything into the 17-18 range you are going to see a massive squeeze here.

SSYS bottomed at the same time that DDD did above. It has pulled back methodically throughout 2016 and I believe that if this gets above 21 again you are going to see it running to 30. This has a 12% short float so there are still a lot of people betting against it.

Definitely a sector to keep your eye on.

Home Depot (HD): Low interest rates and a bounceback in the housing market have led to robust earnings in recent quarters. Not only does Home Depot benefit from an increase in new home sales, but as home prices stay high, consumers tend to invest heavily into their properties. Strong job growth has also supported this ongoing trend, allowing consumers to spend on home improvement projects. In the second quarter, the home improvement retailer posted a 4.7% increase in comparable sales and 5.4% in United States stores. The company should continue to deliver encouraging results but faces a number of near term headwinds including intense competition and significant international exposure. Besides Lowe’s, consumers are starting to look towards online retailers like Amazon for their home improvement needs. This shift to e-commerce could have a lasting impact on Home Depot if it is not taken seriously in the immediate future.

Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS): Dick’s has been gaining strength in recent quarters despite a pullback from apparel brands like Nike and Under Armour. Its efforts to expand its online capabilities along with strategic marketing and merchandising have helped drive traffic trends and sales. Dick’s has also benefited from a consolidation in the industry following the bankruptcy of Sports Authority stores. Dick’s now owns the intellectual property and much of the branding of the former retailer. Tomorrow’s report is forecasted to maintain its current trajectory but will more importantly shed some light on the pivotal holiday season to be reported in early 2017.

The TJX Companies (TJX): A weak retail environment has greatly benefited value channels like TJX’s catalogue of discount brands including Marshalls and its namesake TJ Maxx stores. The retailer has delivered positive comps for over 4 years on strong discount trends, sound marketing strategies, and expanding its online capabilities. Its loyal and growing customer base should continue to drive comparable sales for the upcoming quarter. During the second quarter conference call management indicated comparable store sales would grow between 2 and 3% but margins could see a setback from higher labor costs and ongoing currency headwinds.  

Stratasys (SSYS): 3D printers haven’t become a must have product that many experts predicted it would be, but they have certainly carved out a niche in several industries. Stratasys, in particular, has entered into several strategic partnerships with Boeing, Ford and Siemens to develop 3D printing technology for production applications. Additional efforts to produce affordable consumer products along with these partnerships will help drive revenue growth in the quarter. Of course 3D printing is still an expensive hobby that most consumers are putting off given the current economic environment. Meanwhile competition from 3D Systems will continue to pressure results moving forward.

Mobileye (MBLY): Many experts believe that driverless cars are a near term reality that will revolutionize the automotive industry. This is particularly beneficial for Mobileye which develops driver assistance systems for collision prevention and mitigation. Financial performance has gained traction in the recent years due to this ongoing trend but shares have lagged significantly. The stock is down 5% in the past 12 months and historically decline 1% immediately through the print.

3D Systems (DDD): While 3D printers have lost most of their mainstream appeal, it doesn’t mean they’ve been completely forgotten. 3D Systems is still thriving by selling printers to both commercial and recreational customers. Its portfolio of healthcare solutions are expected to drive longer-term growth. These include end-to-end simulation, training and planning and practicing surgical instruments and devices for personalized surgery. Precision surgical equipment is often very expensive which is why investors are so enthusiastic about these new affordable alternatives. Additionally, DDD unveiled its newest systems, Figure 4, earlier this year, which is being promoted as faster and more efficient than previous models. Heightened competition from heavy hitters like HP and Stratasys will continue to be near-term threats to earnings and revenue.

Fossil (FOSL): Shares of the watchmaker are down over 50% from a year earlier despite topping analysts estimates in 2 of the past 3 quarters. Fossil’s foray into wearable technology is proving to be a smart one, aiding in the near term turnaround. Some of this should also help offset the downturn in traditional timepieces  that has occurred over the past few quarters. The Estimize consensus is forecasting a rebound in comps this quarter to reflect an improving consumer spending environment and growing wearable tech sector.  

CyberArk (CYBR): Outside of Fortinet, the cyber security space is expected to continue growing at a rapid clip. The new and ongoing threats to our digital sovereignty will keep demand for these products rising higher. CyberArk is in a favorable position to tap these opportunities supported by frequent investments in its product suite and several strategic acquisitions. As the industry continues to grow, competition will also heighten. Already, the space is nearing saturation with a glut of names like Cisco, FireEye and Symantec to name a few.  

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): The chipmaker was dealt a blow last week after Apple reported weaker than expected earnings. iPhone sales continued to slow down during the third quarter which is a poor sign for the companies that produce chips in the phone. Shares are still up 15% in the past 3 months as analysts expect the chipmaker to post a marginal improvement this quarter. The company remains well positioned to capitalize on the IoT on other higher growth technologies.

Qorvo (QRVO):  Qorvo is in a similar position as Skyworks following Apple’s weaker third quarter results. The chipmaker currently generates a majority of total revenue from the iPhone which is seeing demand fall. Fortunately, like Skyworks, Qorvo is positioned in many high growth markets to diversify its portfolio beyond the iPhone. Qrvo recently released two new products to its cable networking business that will help support the top line.

3D Systems Corp. (DDD) Information Technology - Computers & Peripherals | Reports May 5, Before Market Opens

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is calling for a 7 cent gain per share on $153.65 million in revenue, 2 cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and $3 million on the top

3D Systems remains focused on building out its healthcare business which grew 9% last quarter

The company’s balance sheet appears to be in shambles as they only begin to recover from unfavorable market conditions

What are you expecting for DDD? Get your estimate in here!

3D Systems is scheduled to report first quarter earnings tomorrow before the market opens. Since its last report the stock is significantly up with investors more optimistic on the outlook of the company. Last quarter, the company ended an 8 quarter streak of missing on both the top and bottom line. Despite failing to issue guidance, expectations are generally upbeat as demand for 3D printers are slowly gaining traction and economic volatility is easing.

The Estimize consensus is calling for a 7 cent gain per share on $153.65 million in revenue, 2 cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and $3 million on the top. In the past 3 months per share estimates have climbed 112% and now reflect a projected 47% increase on a year over year basis. Revenue on the other hand has been relatively flat and is expecting to fall 3% this quarter. Despite some weak earnings in the past, the stock typically does well following earnings. In the day following an earnings report, shares on average are up 4%, increasing to 6% gains 30 days after. The company’s focused strategy and emergence in the healthcare industry has finally started to pay off. Last quarter the company’s healthcare business grew 9% driven by robust offerings as well as increasing demand from clients who print medical and dental devices. 3D Systems has also focused on improving existing 3D printers, strengthening partnerships and enhancing productivity. During the quarter the company announced its decisions to cease production on its entry level 3D printer in an effort to devote resources to more high margin opportunities. The company is well positioned to capitalize on new opportunities as various companies are now opting for 3D solutions for their day to day needs.

On the downside, the DDD is struggling with unfavorable currency headwinds in particular. Furthermore, 3D systems holds a weak balance with cash and cash utilized in operating activities that continues to decline. Last quarter, cash on hand was down $130 million from a year earlier with cash flow from operating activities down $48 million. Do you think DDD can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

Stratasys Inc. (SSYS) Information Technology - Computers & Peripherals | Reports March 3, Before Market Opens

Key Takeaways

The Estimize community is calling for EPS of -$0.09 and revenue of $167.27 million, 2 cents higher than the Street on the bottom line, and roughly $2 million greater on the top line

Stratasys’ recent setbacks come as demand for 3D printers have waned

The company is witnessing unfavorable YoY growth from softer markets and volatile economic conditions around the world

What are you expecting for SSYS? Get your estimate in here!

3D printer company, Stratasys (SSYS), is scheduled to report fourth quarter earnings tomorrow, before the opening bell. The company is coming off a weak third quarter, where it missed on both the top and bottom line. Moreover, year over year growth has been unfavorable from softer markets and volatile economic conditions around the world. Many customers have delayed purchasing a 3D printer pointing to the exorbitant price tags of these systems. This quarter, the Estimize community is calling for EPS of -$0.09 and revenue of $167.27 million, 2 cents higher than the Street on the bottom line, and roughly $2 million greater on the top line. However our Select Consensus, which heavily weight historically accurate analysts and recent estimates, is showing a more modest beat of 1 cent. Since November 2015, the Estimize community has been bearish on Stratasys’ profitability, revising EPS estimates down 89%. Compared to the same period last year, current estimates predict a YoY decline in EPS and revenue of 117% and 23%, respectively. Once expected to be the next big thing, Stratasys and all the other 3D printing companies had another disappointing year in 2015. After losing 38% of its value in 2014, Stratasys managed to out do itself in 2015, watching shares fall an additional 71%. Negative FX headwinds have been the main scapegoat for missed earnings expectations throughout the year. This in itself has effectively hampered capital investments, as well as performance of its MakerBot business. In Q3, Stratasys reported a 55% YoY revenue decline in its MakerBot business, pressuring margins as the overall popularity of 3D printing has waned. Additionally, higher operating costs from increased investments have led investors to question the company’s long term profitability. As of Q3 2015, the company has no debt, allowing Stratesys to focus on improving its products, specifically 3D printing.

Do you think SSYS can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

Monday, February 29

Thursday, March 3

Friday, March 4

Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. (HTZ)

Industrials - Road & Rail | Reports February 29, after the close.

The Estimize community is looking for EPS of $0.06 and revenue of $2.51 billion, one cent Wall Street on the bottom-line, and around $9 million below on the top-line. However, our Select Consensus, which more heavily weights historically accurate analysts and recent estimates, is in-line Wall Street on earnings, and $28 million below on revenues. The Estimize community has been bearish on Hertz’s profitability this quarter, pushing EPS estimates down 17% in the past three months. The company has historically beaten Wall Street on the bottom line 60% of the time while only besting the Estimize EPS consensus 25% of the time.

What to Watch: Hertz Global has been struggling to perform for the past two years mostly due to competitive pressures. Just this week, Hertz’s stock took a beating following a lackluster fourth quarter earnings report from rival Avis Budget Group. Following the announcement, shares fell over 13%, having dropped a total of 45.9% since the start of 2016. Hertz has been unable to improve growth metrics as the car rental industry freefalls. Competition from ride sharing rivals like Lyft and Uber have adversely impacted Hertz's revenue growth. Last quarter the company reported a 2% decline in U.S. car rental revenue, while international car rentals fell a resounding 14%, largely due to weak global economic conditions. High debt obligations and weaker operating cash flow also remains a top concern. Despite its misfortunes, activist investor Carl Icahn took an interest in Hertz, purchasing a 14.3% stake in the company with the hope of rectifying fleet management issues and cost inefficiencies. This year, the company also plans to spin off its equipment lease company into a separate publicly traded company.

Stratasys, Inc. (SSYS)

Information Technology - Computers & Peripherals | Reports March 3, before the open.

The Estimize community calls for EPS of -$0.08 and revenue of $168.9 million, 3 cents higher than the Street on the bottom line, and roughly $4 million greater on the top line. However our Select Consensus is showing a more modest beat of 2 cents. Since November 2015, the Estimize community has been bearish on Stratasys’ profitability, revising EPS estimates down 63%. Compared to the same period last year, current estimates predict a YoY decline in EPS and revenue of 113% and 21%, respectively.

What to Watch: Once expected to be the next big thing, Stratasys and all the other 3D printing companies had another disappointing year in 2015. After losing 38% of its value in 2014, Stratasys managed to out do itself in 2015, watching shares fall an additional 71%. Negative FX headwinds have been the main scapegoat for missed earnings expectations throughout the year. This in itself has effectively hampered capital investments, as well as performance of its MakerBot business. In Q3, Stratasys reported a 55% YoY revenue decline in its MakerBot business, pressuring margins as the overall popularity of 3D printing has waned. Additionally, higher operating costs from increased investments have led investors to question the company’s long term profitability. As of Q3 2015, the company has no debt, allowing Stratesys to focus on improving its products, specifically 3D printing.    

Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA)

Information Technology - Semiconductors | Reports March 3, after the close.

The Estimize community is looking for EPS of $0.52 and revenue of $68.0 million, 5 cents higher than the Street on the bottom line, and roughly $3 million greater on the top line. The Select Consensus is slightly more bearish, with EPS of $0.50 and a sales consensus of $66.5 million. Compared to Q4 2014, this represents a project Yoy decline on the bottom line of 23% while sales are expected to rise 6%. The Estimize community has been bearish on Ambarella’s earnings, revising EPS estimates down 13% and revenues down 10% in the past 3 months.

What to Watch: Video and imaging chipmaker, Ambarella, has a year it would soon like to forget. After reaching highs of $126.70 in June 2015, shares of Ambarella have plummeted 65.5% in the past 8 months. The company’s weak outlook has been closely tied to the disappointing growth of its biggest customer, GoPro. Ambarella produces the chips inside all GoPro devices, accounting for a third of the company’s sales. GoPro’s dismal Q4 earnings report foreshadows equally disappointing results for Ambarella come Friday. GoPro severely missed on the bottom line, reporting a loss per share of -$0.08 and a 16% decline in the number of units sold YoY. Ambarella’s relationship with GoPro, which was once a blessing, has become quite the burden. Last quarter, the company warned investors that Q4 sales were only expected to rise 0.5% to 4.3%, compared with to its 62% growth in the March 2015 quarter. Fortunately, Ambarella is attempting to diversify its top line away from action cameras and drones and into less volatile products.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX)

Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals  | Reports March 3, after the close.

The Estimize Select Consensus calls for EPS of $2.77, 9% higher than Wall Street, while revenue expectations of $2.77 billion are roughly $27 million greater than the Street’s consensus. The Estimize community has been bearish on Valeant’s profitability in the past three months, revising EPS estimates down 22% and sales down 11%. That said, the company has consistently delivered positive earnings surprises, beating Wall Street’s EPS estimates 88% of the time.

What to Watch: In the past year, Valeant has been in the limelight for all the wrong reasons. Shares have taken a steep dive, falling 58.4% in the past 12 months following claims that the company was raising prices without discretion but also booking phantom sales under a separate company, Philidor. After vehemently denying this, Valeant announced an earnings restatement ahead of its fourth quarter earnings to reclaim $58 million worth of wrongly booked sales. Investors responded positively to the news, giving shares a 4.4% boost. The restatement is expected to be minimal, increasing  FY2015 EPS by $0.09. In focus during the upcoming earnings release will be updates on Valeant’s distribution partnership with Walgreens, product performance, and any ramifications following recent accounting missteps. Valeant’s ability to continue consolidating with competitors and grow are largely contingent on how the company addresses its high debt level. Last quarter Valeant reported a leverage ratio of 4.87, reflecting its relatively low financial leverage. The company’s recent partnership with Walgreens should help offset losses incurred after parting ways with speciality pharmacy Philidor.  Through key partnerships and cost reducing strategies, Valeant is expected to cut $2.25 billion in debt by the end of 2016.

SunEdison, Inc. (SUNE)

Information Technology - Semiconductors | Reports March 4, before the open.

The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of -$0.85, 14 cents higher than Wall Street, with revenue expectations of $800 million around $100 million less than the Street. The Select Consensus on the other hand, is showing a greater loss on the bottom line, with EPS of -$0.90. The Estimize community has maintained a pessimistic stance on SunEdison, revising EPS estimates down 20% since the company last reported. Compared to the same period last year, current estimates predict a resounding profit decline of 412%. On average, the company has consistently missed on the bottom line, reporting negative earnings surprises in each of the past 3 quarters.

What to Watch: This past year has not been kind to SunEdison. The company missed profit estimates for each quarter of 2015, leading to a 92.9% decline in stock price for the year. Earnings per share losses were primarily incurred from significant increases in marketing costs and interest expenses from a high debt burden. However, top line performance and volume growth were better than expected.

The solar industry has experienced a significant downturn in recent years, as new laws and regulations have reduced the favorable subsidies these companies receive. In the third quarter, the company’s G&A expenses rose 135%, with interest expenses nearly doubling as they work to repay a $11.7 billion debt load. As a result, SunEdison has reported a net loss of $1.16 billion in the past 12 months.

In an effort to bolster its financials, SunEdison has insisted it will refocus its solar material operations and cut costs to reach cash flow breakeven by the end of 2016. The company’s sustained focus on expanding through acquisitions and strategic partnerships is an encouraging first step to reaching this goal. This past year, SunEdison entered the energy storage market with the acquisition of Solar Grid Storage and has planned to form second publicly traded company in YieldCo. Ahead of the company’s fourth quarter earnings, investors will be looking for more information on acquisitions and growth initiatives to restore their confidence.

Be sure to get your estimates in for this week’s reports!