#$jjcb

Here are some of the most noteworthy trendline developments across the markets for Wednesday, February 5, 2020.

Crude Oil Testing Post-2016 Up Trendline

Oil & Gas Index $XOI Broke Post-2003 Up Trendline

Copper Testing Post-2009 Up Trendline

S&P Short-Term Volatility Index $VXST Rejected At Post-2018 Down Trendline

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The last half of the year 2017 was a great one for Copper.  Rising from a base, this base metal ran higher for for 4 months to a top in late August.  A couple of pullbacks and reversals higher later and it was at a 4 year high near year end.  But then the useful metal stalled.  It moved sideways in a range for nearly a year.  The range tightened in the spring and then a final surge to the upside saw a retest of the December high.  It failed and fell back.

But as the chart below shows, this time the bottom of the range did not hold.  Copper prices continued to move lower into July.  The price bottomed last week after retracing nearly 78.6% of the move higher.  Since then it has been bouncing.  The bounce is now approaching that prior support level that held it for the past 11 months.  Will it act as resistance this time?

Remember when inflation fears were a thing?  Commodity prices were rising and we were debating whether the FOMC would raise rates 3 or 4 times in 2018?  That was fun wasn't it?  Copper prices had moved higher in late 2016 and then settled in for the first half of 2017.  in July 2017 they started to move higher again.  They made a series of higher highs into the end of 2017, buffeted by support below.  The 200 day SMA rose to meet price in April of 2018 and that raised the support level.  

In June the price of Copper started to move higher again, and was quickly testing the highs made at the end of 2017.  The fast rise and momentum behind it reignited the inflation fears.  But it has a short lived experience.  As quickly as Copper prices rose, they started to move back lower again.  Now they are back testing the support of the lows from 2017.