#$mpel

$MPEL

After bottoming with no more momentum to the downside, forming a triple bottom, price managed to make a higher high. Now it’s testing those previous swing highs at the 17 level.

Five More Stocks Reach Theoretical Short Sell Targets

This is an update to our latest model portfolio report, 23 Stocks for February 2016.

Just prior to the close yesterday our theoretical Opportunistic Short Model portfolio assumed a 100% cash position to lock in a February gain of +11.86%.

The theoretical Core Short Model portfolio, which does not use portfolio return or volatility cash allocation signals, is currently posting a +14.37% MTD gain as of midday February 9, 2016. 

Within this theoretical Core Short Model portfolio, five more stocks have reached price targets and will be assumed closed at the end of trading today, February 9. These include Williams Partners L.P. (WPZ), EnLink Midstream Partners, LP (ELNK), Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (MPEL), Cavium Networks, Inc. (CAVM), and Deutsche Bank AG (DB) -- down -40.1%, -28.27%, -18.41%, -17.47%, and -16.69%, respectively, for the MTD as of mid day February 9.

As of midday February 9, the theoretical Core Long/Short model portfolio is up +7.53% for the month and the Opportunistic Long/Short model portfolio is up +5.02%. Theoretical short sales are more than compensating for losses of -6.84% in both theoretical long models. 

Please see our disclaimers and disclosures.

Who We Are, What We Do I am an equity research analyst with more than 20 years experience in equity research on both the sell side and buy side. I have covered telecom services and steel at global investment banks, and nearly every industry as a senior analyst with generalist coverage at a $1b asset management company. 

Customized Equity Research Services I am currently developing customized equity research reports for all the stocks in the portfolio of a large family office. These reports are similar in format to our past reports on Starbucks Corp (SBUX) and McKesson Corp (MCK). Let me know if I can help your research team.

Financial Modeling, Business Plans/Strategies, Valuation, Fund Raising Check out these innovative start-up companies that I am helping. Mention my name and they may give you a free trial: Scout Finance – mobile solutions for financial data and documents.GovBrain – text analytics and sentiment analysis.Maptycs – SaaS risk management software.XBRLAnalyst – financial data in Excel. 

Why “Theoretical” Models Sometime in 2016 I intend to convert this model portfolio update into a paid research product. I also hope to launch real portfolio strategies based on these theoretical models.

For now, see how I manage real-time derivations of these signals on InvestFeed, StockViews, on Marketocracy for non-tax and tax-efficient portfolio derivations, and on Harvest Exchange for a long-only tax-efficient model.

Contact information If you are in need of equity research or financial modeling consulting services, please contact me via LinkedIn or this website.

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...on one of the least volatile days of the New Year, as the Nasdaq Composite makes it 6-consecutive days of gains ahead of a busy week of earnings! Several stories for investors to focus on today, with all carrying weight: 1) The Greek election surprise overnight, 2) the expected snowstorm long the Northeast, which has already shut school, banks, road, mass transit in NY, NJ for Tuesday, 3) oil prices fall further, 4) dollar maintains strength (11-year highs), 5) M&A activity busy today (MWV/RKT…ETP/RGP…AXS/PRE), 6) earnings, earnings and more earnings this week…but volumes dried up late, as traders went home early to beat the snow!

...as Dow Industrials post another triple digit loss (three last week), trading back under 17,000, while Russell 2000 Small Cap index underperforms, dropping more than 1% (now 10% off record closing highs) as global fears weigh on markets (Ebola scares, Hong Kong, Russia/Ukraine, as well as weaker economic reports out of Europe nightly).

Today’s pullback wiped out Q2 gains for both the S&P and DJ Industrials; Materials and Industrials leading the weakness, while Utilities lead; Transports fell over 2.5%; mixed economic data in U.S. also hurt (ISM/Construction Spending missed…ADP jobs better); the Ebola worries plagued shares of airlines, hotels, theme park names, and cruise lines today).

Thorns in the Market...

Roses for Today...

And the All Time New Highs...

LVS "No Sun no Fun"

August Table numbers are in for Macau names and they are not good: August Table Game Shares (below):   Through August 24th, our checks indicated table shares were as follows: SJM - 22.0%, LVS - 25.0%, WYNN -10.0%, MPEL - 13.0%, Galaxy - 21.0%, and MGM - 9.0% (per Deutsche Bank)