#$cake

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Hair: Moon. Hair // - Variety - Balance

Lipstick: // L // Fleshy Essentials  Genus OMEGA Applier FATPACK @LEVEL

Top: .:villena:. - (Slink HG) - Tank Crop Top - Red

Jacket: .:villena:. - (Slink HG) - Vinyl Puffer - Yellow / F @Kustom9

Bottoms: .:villena:. - (Slink HG) - Biker Short - Nylon Blue

Glasses: /$CAKE/ Flame Frames [Black]   @LEVEL

Earrings: [RHUDE] Galaxy Earrings  10K Gold  @LEVEL

Dimple Piercings: -SU!- Piercing Set 05 

Choker: Eclat - Strap Buckle Choker

Backdrop: Burn Out Backdrop - Stampede Set - The Bearded Guy  @LEVEL

EARNING UPDATE $CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated for quarter ending q_Jun18 – Revenue grew, Margins expanded

[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level0)]Please login to read the earning update on CAKE [lwa][/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level0)]The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated reported earnings (EPS) of 0.61 per share for the quarter ending q_Jun18. This is vis-vis 0.56 per share for the previous quarter ending q_Mar18, a growth of 8.9 %. Compared to last year same quarter…

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) Consumer Discretionary - Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Reports June 1, Before Market Opens

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per shares of $1.81 on $704.63 million in revenue, 1 cent higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top

Cracker Barrel has benefited in the recent years without making any major changes

Cracker Barrel has pledged to transition 100% of its eggs to cage free over the next 10 years

What are you expecting for CBRL? Get your estimate in here!

The recent trends in the food industry are shifting back towards casual dining after years of praise for the fast casual sector. Restaurants like Darden Restaurants and the Cheesecake factory have posted double digit gains this quarter while the fast casual sector has been plagued by names like Chipotle. Tomorrow’s report for Cracker Barrel is expected to maintain the current trends within the restaurant industry.

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per shares of $1.81 on $704.63 million in revenue, 1 cent higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top. Compared to a year earlier this projects as a 22% increase in earnings with sales expected to grow 3%. Given the strength in the restaurant industry, it's not surprising that the stock is a positive mover through earnings. In the 30 days following its report shares typically increase 2% which could add to the 20% gains already made this year.Despite a relatively weak Q2, Cracker Barrel has benefited from the resurgence of the casual dining sector. The old fashion brand continues to deliver positive comparable store sales and earnings on the high end of expectations. Generally speaking, Cracker Barrel has outpaced its peers in the casual dining space. During its Q2 analyst call, they raised guidance for the remainder of fiscal 2016, reflecting easing commodity prices, increasing traffic and growing average check.

Cracker Barrel has made significant gains in the past few years, despite making zero major changes. The biggest augmentation has been its pledge to transition to cage free eggs over the next 10 years. A move to higher quality ingredients preserves its core values but also meets changing consumer habits to healthier products. Do you think CBRL can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

Ok, now that I have your attention, are you ready to go get that cheesecake?  The Cheesecake Factory, $CAKE, makes a lot more than cheesecake.  In fact my wife loves their salads and the pizza's are great too.  In my house dessert can be 6 chocolate covered walnuts though.  So it is that dessert case that gets my attention when I walk through the door.  

What catches my attention prior to the earnings report tonight though is the chart of the stock price.  Over 2015 it has built a Cup and Handle pattern, with the Handle forming now.  This not only reminds me of the coffee I'm gonna have with my cheesecake, but that this stock has upside potential to 66.25 on a move higher out of the pattern.  

As it sits in the Handle, the momentum indicators are slightly positive.  The RSI is holding in the bullish zone but has pulled back.  While the MACD is flat but positive after a pullback as well.  The Bollinger Bands®, a measure of volatility, are narrow and turned slightly down,  making the total picture neutral for now.

There is support from prior price history at 53.50 and 52.40 followed by 51.50 and 49.75 before 48 and the bottom of the Cup at 47.15.  There is no resistance higher above 55.35.  Short interest is high at over 12%, so a short covering squeeze is always a potential.  

On the options front, the August chain sees large open interest at the 50 Strike on the Put side below.  Outside of that there is some size at the 55 and 60 Strikes on the Call side.  Implied volatility is low generally at about 25%, similar to the implied volatility in September, and the historical volatility.  The August chain suggest that options traders expect a $3.15 cent move by Expiry on the 21st, and historically the stock has moved only 3.10% over the last 6 earnings reports or $1.70 at today's price.  

Cheesecake Factory, $CAKE

Trade Idea 1: Sell the August 50 Put for 30 cents.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the August 55 Call for $1.40.

Trade Idea 3: Buy the August/September 55 Call Calendar for $0.40.

Trade Idea 4: Buy the August/September 55 Call Calendar and sell the July 50 Put for $0.10.

Trade Idea 5: Sell the August 55 Straddle for a $3.00 credit.

#1 is a straight trade banking on the large open interest to hold at 50, with a possible entry there. #2 a defined risk trade for the upside break of the Cup and Handle. #3 works for the longer term upside looking for 55 to stall the price at August Expiry. #4, a Call Calendar Risk Reversal, adds leverage to #3. #5 is profitable on a close between 52 and 58 at August Expiry and gives a lot of time to maneuver out of the trade as well. I like #5 or #4.

These are the types of analysis and trades given to premium users everyday.  Come join us!

Restaurants get a lot of chatter on social, so I thought I’d look into the publicly traded restaurant companies to see who’s getting the buzz...

Here are some restaurant chains people talk about on social:

People talk about Olive Garden (owned by Darden) a lot.... Cracker Barrel, not so much.

Also interesting are the positive social sentiment numbers for these companies.  All of them are in respectable range, with Cracker Barrel the lowest at 83% positive and Bloomin Brands (think Outback Steakhouse) the highest at an impressive 92% positive.

Of course, these give us a baseline to work off of. What’s important here isn’t the raw volume around these brands, but rather any consumer shifts we see in the future.

For example, if we start to see a steady increase in Cracker Barrel social volume while sentiment remains high, we’ll know something interesting is going on at the stores.  On the flip-side, if mentions of Darden-owned restaurants start to slip, we will have a clue that comps might not be up to Wall St expectations, like we saw withTesla last quarter.

Again, it’s all about consumer shifts.  What happens to these restaurants from the baseline is what will tell us when it’s time to take a look for opportunities in the stock.  

That’s what LikeFolio is all about -- using social data to find opportunities that Wall St hasn’t noticed... yet.

...and a stellar week in all, with many indices finishing at or near all-time high closing levels. Sentiment improved throughout the week, amid positive developments for Greece/Ukraine help drive the overall tape. Halfway through the month, and February gains have already wiped out all of January’s losses.

The Dow Industrials top 18,000 level for first time in 2015 (all-time closing high 18,053.71 on 12/26/14), the S&P 500 Index topped its December 29th all-time closing high of 2,090.57 (trading to a new all-time high). The S&P MidCap 400 Index at all-time high, while the Russell 2000 Index trading above its record close of 1219.11, while the Nasdaq Composite also at 15 year highs. Oil prices surged more than 2% this week, while Treasuries ended on a weaker note (yields on 10-yr back above 2%).

Sector gainers this week include Tech (+3.8%), Materials (+2.8%), Consumer Discretionary (+2%), and Industrials (+1.4%), while Utilities and Telecom lagged. Europe stronger this week, helped overnight by better EuroZone GDP data (Germany’s DAX was over 11K). Reminder, U.S. equity markets closed Monday for President’s Day.