#$bud

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

AIG, Ticker: $AIG

AIG, $AIG, comes into the week moving over resistance. It has a RSI rising into the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for continuation to participate…..

Allstate, Ticker: $ALL

Allstate, $ALL, comes into the week at resistance. It has a RSI rising over the midline with the MACD moving toward positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Anheuser-Busch InBev, Ticker: $BUD

Anheuser-Busch InBev, $BUD, comes into the week rounding out a bottom. It has a RSI rising and a MACD heading toward positive. Look for continuation to participate…..

Cleveland-Cliffs, Ticker: $CLF

Cleveland-Cliffs, $CLF, comes into the week breaking resistance. It has a RSI rising to the bullish zone with the MACD climbing. Look for continuation to participate…..

HP, Ticker: $HPQ

HP, $HPQ, comes into the week approaching resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which heading into July Options Expiration week, equity markets showed early strength give way to rotation from large cap and tech names into small caps late in the week.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue consolidation in the uptrend or break to new highs while Crude Oil consolidates in a tightening range. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to the downside in consolidation while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the move lower in consolidation while Emerging Markets have broken consolidation to begin an uptrend.

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Anheuser-Busch InBev, Ticker: $BUD

This Bud is for you! Anheuser-Busch InBev, $BUD, fell hard and fast from October through to mid-November. But after a 30% drop, it found a bottom to start December. Since then it has trended slowly higher, until gapping up last week. The digestive pullback after looks to have price breaking to the upside Friday. The RSI is bullish and the MACD rising, both supporting more upside. Look for continuation to participate higher.....

Diageo, Ticker: $DEO

Prefer wine or spirits? Diageo, $DEO, started higher in December off of a base. It paused at the 50 day SMA and then at the October high, retracing slightly each time. A second stall at resistance lasted a week before a push to the upside and then consolidation in a bull flag. The price looks ready to break that flag to the upside. The RSI is high in the bullish range with the MACD rising. Look for continuation higher to participate.....

Cheniere, Ticker: $LNG

Now consider the environment. Cheniere, $LNG, started higher in June last year. That move peaked in September and then pulled back to a higher low. A second move ran up to 50 in January before a consolidative move that has lasted ever since. Friday saw a pierce through resistance but then a pullback. The RSI is bullish and rising as the MACD is crossed up and rising. Look for continuation higher to participate.....

MOMO, Ticker: $MOMO

MOMO, $MOMO, had a strong run higher from July to September. It consolidated that move for even longer before adding a second leg higher beginning in December. The second leg hit resistance at the start of April and has moved sideways since. The RSI is in the bullish zone while the MACD is trying to turn up, and positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate higher.....

Union Pacific, Ticker: $UNP

Union Pacific, $UNP, roared up from a low in November. But by early December that has settled into a slow grind up and a sideways channel. Last week the stock was pulling back and found support at the 20 day SMA, a higher low. The RSI has turned up and the MACD is leveling after a pullback. Look for continuation to participate higher.....

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which heading into May options expiration, sees the equity markets looking mixed with strength in the QQQ and exhaustion in the IWM and SPY.

Elsewhere look for a possible reversal higher in the Gold downtrend while Crude Oil consolidates. The US Dollar Index looks to continue the drift lower while US Treasuries are biased lower in consolidation, but show the possibility of a reversal short term. The Shanghai Composite is trending lower but also showing signs of a possible reversal while Emerging Markets continue to roar higher.

Volatility looks to remain at exceptionally low levels keep the wind at the backs of the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts show continued strength in the QQQ with consolidation in the SPY and IWM. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

Tonight we will all be watching a fierce battle among the world’s best competitors. No, I’m not talking about football – I’m talking about the commercials and the enormous spending that goes into them.  Companies are dropping millions upon millions for thirty 30 seconds of access to consumer eyeballs.

So, the real question here isn’t “what do ad experts think about the commercials” – it’s “what do real consumers think about the commercials”.  Because it’s consumers who are making purchasing decisions and potentially driving revenues for these companies…and that’s what matters to investors like us.

So how will we know which commercials do the best with consumers?

Enter the TD Ameritrade Ad Challenge.  Through a partnership with TD Ameritrade, Likefolio is leveraging its social data tracking technology to show investors how social media chatter around this year’s big game commercials may be able to help them validate potential trading opportunities in real time.  

Here’s how it works

LikeFolio’s proprietary technology scans the entire twitterverse constantly, capturing every tweet about the brands and products behind the world’s most popular stocks—and then analyzing those tweets for indications of sentiment (positive, neutral, or negative) and consumer purchase intent.

For the TD Ameritrade Ad Challenge, our industry-leading technology is being used to highlight which publicly-traded companies got the most positive Twitter mentions about their ads during the game.  Updates will be delivered in real-time throughout the game on Twitter, with the final results announced on video and through multiple media outlets on Monday morning.

Handicapping the field

What contest is complete without some pre-game projections?  With companies pre-announcing, or even pre-releasing their ads, it is already looking like a banner game for commercials.  Here’s how I think they stack up as we head into the weekend, but make sure you follow throughout the game as we are sure to see major shifts as the game gets underway:

First out the gate

Anheuser-Busch InBev ($BUD) has to be considered the morning line favorite to win the TD Ameritrade Ad Challenge due to its overwhelming size and strength. With 4 brands expected to be promoted in multiple spots, a history of popular ads, and an already controversial ad about its founder’s immigrant story…this year's Big Game is Bud's to lose.

Proctor & Gamble ($PG) might not be the first company that comes to mind when you think of great ads, but this year’s Mr. Clean ad is already getting good chatter, and they’ve had some wild, tweet-inducing spots for Old Spice in the past.

Disney ($DIS) is the boom or bust pick of this year’s ad challenge.  While the company hasn’t officially committed to buying ad time, there are rumors circulating that they might drop a preview of their upcoming Star Wars blockbuster “The Last Jedi”, which would be a total game-changer.

Contenders

Pepsi ($PEP) is introducing Lifewtr brand with John Legend’s version of “Love Me Now”, which could tip the scales in their favor, despite not running a Doritos ad this year.  Pepsi Zero Sugar is also getting in the game by sponsoring the halftime show.  You read that right.  The Pepsi Zero Sugar halftime show.

Coca-Cola ($KO) is going old-school, bringing back some of their classic, beloved commercials for Coke and Sprite brands.  At least that’s what they’re claiming right now.  We think a surprise could be in the works.

Volkswagen ($VLKAY) is taking a slightly political, serious approach to their commercial with a well-made spot focused on progress and women’s rights.  If they pull it off, “touching” could prevail over “funny”.

Kraft Heinz ($KHC) might just win the ad challenge down at the wire – without even buying an ad!  Their “Smunday” petition is getting steam on the internet.  By giving employees the day off on Monday, and pushing for it to be a national holiday, Kraft is sure to win over some loyal fans!

Long shots

Godaddy ($GDDY) can’t be counted out of the mix.  They always bring some cutting edge humor, and this year they’ve got some internet joke “easter eggs” hidden in the ad that could get some buzz.  With Victoria’s Secret (owned by $LB) out of the mix this year, Godaddy could be missing an opportunity to bring sexy back.

Honda Motor ($HMC) is featuring celebrity yearbook photos.

Wix.com ($WIX) is using a 30 second spot during the game to bring attention to a full campaign consisting of multiple short films.  It’s a big gamble that is already producing millions of YouTube views.

Nintendo ($NTDOY) is back to big game status after their impressive Pokémon Go revival and could be one to watch.

That’s a wrap!

We’re hoping the “Big Sunday Night Football Game that shall remain nameless in print” is a barn-burner, but we’re even more excited to see who wins the TD Ameritrade Ad Challenge this year.

Yahoo Finance is tracking the stocks you’re following, based on your Yahoo Finance ticker searches.

Amazon (AMZN) – Bloomberg is reporting that the e-commerce giant is pursuing rights to stream live sports. Amazon is reportedly interesting in streaming soccer, tennis, golf, rugby and auto racing.

Ford (F) – The US auto giant reduced its fiscal year 2016 profit outlook after expanding its recall by 1.5 million vehicles, bringing the total to 2.4 million. Ford now expects adjusted pretax profit of approximately $10.2 billion, down from its previous forecast of $10.8 billion.

Hovnanian (HOV) – The homebuilder is falling after reporting lower-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings. Revenue was up 32.6% from one year ago to $716.9 million, but fell short of Wall Street’s projections of $732.51 million. 

Restoration Hardware (RH) – The luxury goods retailer reported second-quarter results that topped Wall Street estimates, despite posting a 77% drop in net income from one year ago.

Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) – The beer giant bought Belgium-based Brouwerij Bosteels. Anheuser-Busch InBev reportedly paid $225 million for the company.

Yahoo Finance is tracking the stocks you’re following, based on your Yahoo Finance ticker searches.

Herbalife (HLF) — The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Carl Icahn considered selling his stake in Herbalife to a group that included activist investor Bill Ackman, who’s famously called the company a pyramid scheme. Icahn’s possible sale would come just a few weeks after he said he was more confident in the company following its settlement with the FTC.

Apple (AAPL) — The big tech giant has issued a global iPhone security update after a human rights lawyer said he had received unsolicited text messages. The glitch was that spyware could be installed on a target’s device by getting the user to click on a link.

Tesla (TSLA), SolarCity (SCTY) — Federal antitrust regulators have approved Tesla’s bid to buy SolarCity. Tesla announced the merger in June and proposed terms for the takeover on August 1.

Big Lots (BIG) — The company reported a decline in revenue but raised its profit forecast for the year. Big Lots now expects adjusted earnings per share of $3.45 to $3.55, up from its prior forecast of $3.35 to $3.50.

Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) – The company is warning that its big merger with SABMiller could lead to thousands of job cuts. Anheuser-Busch said about 3% of the total combined workforce could be laid off. The two companies currently have about 220,000 employees.

Here are some of the stocks the Yahoo Finance team will be watching for you today.

Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) expects its merger with rival SABMiller to lead to about a 3% reduction in its workforce over the next three years, once the deal is complete. The two companies currently employ 220,000 workers worldwide.

Amazon (AMZN), the e-commerce giant that made life a nightmare for bookstores, is opening more *brick-and-mortar* bookstores. Amazon is telling the FT it plans to open physical stores in Chicago, San Diego and Portland, Oregon. The company opened its first bookstore in Seattle last fall. That store sells books and gadgets like Amazon’s Kindle e-reader.

GameStop (GME) shares fell in early trading. The video game retailer reported earnings that matched expectations, but revenue came in short of forecasts for the second quarter, due to weaker than expected same-store sales. The company said lack of new video game titles and new information being released about upcoming new consoles hurt sales.

Analysts at Stifel Financial Advisers said they see the latest developments as a "symptom of fiduciary duty" and say it's "very unlikely" that AB InBev upped its offer by less than what it thinks is needed to achieve the 75% acceptance threshold.

By Renee Cordes

Is Anheuser-Busch InBev NV/SA’s (BUD) 'megabrew' deal for SABMiller plc in danger of unraveling?

That's what some fear after SABMiller pressed the pause button with a board decision still pending on a higher offer from its Belgium-based suitor this week. Bowing to pressure from activist investors, AB InBev raised the tab to £79 billion ($103.98 billion) from £73 billion agreed last November.

AB InBev, which makes Budweiser, Stella Artois and Becks, has said that the new offer was final. That offer, prompted by pressure from activist investors amid the falling British currency, was immediately rejected by one of the target's main shareholders, Aberdeen Asset Management plc. The fund manager on Tuesday called the latest offer "unacceptable as it both undervalues the company and continues to favor SABMiller's two key shareholders."

More turbulence has emerged in the last 24 hours, with SABMiller CEO Alan Clark reportedly telling employees in a company memo that all convergence planning is on hold, and all contact between the companies should be put off until further notice.

"I appreciate this will cause lots of internal and external speculation," Clark is quoted as writing. "However, please stay focused, and I will update you as soon as I am able to."

A spokesman for SABMiller declined to comment.

A spokeswoman for AB InBev said via email that the company has no comment on the press reports.

AB InBev shares were down 2.61% in Brussels Thursday at €110.15, giving it a one-year return of 1.37% and a current market value of around €181.9 billion.

SABMiller shares slid 2.10% in London to £92.00. The stock is up 31.12% over a year ago, and its market cap is now at £71.08 billion.

As is often the case with cross-border M&A deals, SABMiller and AB InBev had started convergence planning several months ago -- during which no commercial information is shared -- to ensure a smooth transition from day one.

Analysts at Stifel Financial Advisers said in a note they don't see the latest developments "as a sign SAB is considering changing its recommendation of the transaction," but rather as a "symptom of fiduciary duty" and says it's "very unlikely" that AB InBev upped its offer by less than what it thinks is needed to achieve the 75% acceptance threshold.

In a separate note, Redburn (Europe) Ltd. equity analysts argue that it serves the SABMiller board to wait before deciding its next move, since China has yet to give the green light for the deal with AB InBev, and the Belgian company is due to report results on Friday.

Noises about the deal turbulence come just as it appeared to be nearing the finish line, after clearing conditional approval from the U.S. Department of Justice last week to keep a second-half planned closing on track.

A deal failure would be a rare personal defeat for AB InBev CEO Carlos Brito, the beer industry's de facto dealmaker-in-chief who runs the Leuven, Belgium-based company from New York City. He's perhaps best known for leading InBev NV/SA's $52 billion takeover of St. Louis-based Anheuser-Busch Cos. to create the world-leading AB InBev in November 2008, and repeatedly refers to the agreed SABMiller tie-up as the world's "truly global brewer."

SABMiller has yet to formally respond to AB InBev's revised offer, and the SABMiller declined to say when its board will meet.

On Tuesday it said that its board will continue to consult with shareholders and meet formally to review it. It also disclosed that it had hired Centerview Partners as an additional financial adviser. The existing roster includes Robey Warshaw LLP, JP Morgan Cazenove Ltd., Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs & Co.

AB InBev's financial advisers are Lazard Ltd., Deutsche Bank AG, Barclays Capital, BNP Paribas SA, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and, on Africa matters, Standard Bank plc.

AB InBev is due to put out second-quarter results this Friday before markets open. Analyst Wim Hoste of KBC Securities expects net profit to decline by 59% to $791 million, mainly due to financial costs related to financing arrangements for the SABMiller deal as well as adjustments on pound hedges also related to the acquisition.