Pink Lemonade Rose

Greek box mirror with the head of Athena

330 - 270 BCE

Source details and larger version.

Ludwig Bemelmans

As expected, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed won the Michigan Democratic primary for US Senate. Congrats to the Doc. 🎆

Though there was a considerable discrepancy between polling and the actual result.

Here are the last seven polls prior to election day for that race.

If that's hard to see, El-Sayed's margins run from +10 (lowest) to +19 (highest) points.

Here are the actual votes cast in Tuesday's primary.

So Abdul El-Sayed actually won by just 0.97%.

It would be understating things to call this a major polling error.

This is not a reflection specifically on the Michigan election or the candidates but on the polling business and its potential effect on voter participation.

We've seen this film before. Notably, on the day before the 2016 presidential election, Nate Silver's highly regarded Five-ThirtyEight site projected that Hillary Clinton had a 73% chance of winning the presidential election.

So I'm sure the pollsters will be offering a myriad of excuses for being so far off in Michigan. 9 to 18 points is way beyond any reasonable margin of error.

My point here is that you should not let polls (or prediction markets) determine whether or not you vote.

People who see their candidate ahead may sometimes decide that their votes aren't needed. And those whose candidate is behind could feel discouraged and choose not to vote.

here are some of the things i used/am using to build my emotional resilience and therefore capacity to contribute to change. this is not an ad and i am not being paid (feel free to change this) nor did i pay for any of this because we 🫶 public libraries.

books

Hope in the Dark by Rebecca Solnit: we hear a new dogshit headline every five minutes, but we've had some incredible victories. sometimes, a victory can look like nothing because the horrible thing that was supposed to be a thing is no longer a thing. updated foreword/afterword addressed the first round of trump.

Not Too Late by var. authors, ed. Rebecca Solnit & Thelma Young Lutunatabua: while there's a long road ahead, we have already avoided the worst possible outcome of climate change and picked up extraordinary wins along the way. includes voices from the global south and atoll nations most affected by climate change.

From Dictatorship to Democracy by Gene Sharp: a manual for resistance used in the arab spring and by other freedom fighters in recent decades. includes a list of 198 things you can do that are not doomscrolling. free at the link and on various other sites in a number of languages.

US people might be able to find the first two from public libraries physically or virtually with the libby app, or buy them from an independent bookstore. non-US people, idk but a sample size of one friend from aotearoa NZ found them at the library.

if you have recs for other hope-centric or practical activist books, please send them my way!

blogs

regularly post hopeful news from reputable sources. i don't follow all of these personally, but blogs and sites like these were my guiding light out of the doomer mindset.

Reasons for Hope @reasonsforhope (personal favorite)

Hope for the Planet @hope-for-the-planet

Dandelion News @dandelionsresilience

@crafting-and-tea under #good news

Wachinyeya @wachinyeya

more in the Good News tumblr community, though i haven't checked it out thoroughly

things to do

this list is admittedly shorter as i live with debilitating long covid and also US-centric bc. i live here. i'm actively seeking out more ways to get involved, so please send me suggestions!

distributing free-to-print tarjetas rojas (red cards) about your rights and what to do if approached by an immigration agent

using 5calls.org's scripts and calling tool to contact my representatives

attending community events when possible (idk where you live, you're gonna have to look these up yourself)