all right, so I will. I do. I do.

In the opening scene of the execution, the area is packed with people. All the Sundered Houses are present. Thjazi is marched over to Azune by Tachonis soldiers. As in the house personally responsible for using Casimir’s betrayal to sabotage Thjazi’s escape plan. Whoever planted the fake glyph which was intended to register during an arcane scan had to know the Arcane Marshal doing the scan was 1) A conspirator planning to throw the scan and 2) Wasn’t just some hired corrupt magic cop, but someone willing to take the fall while surrounded on all sides by Revolutionary Guard and Sundered House forces; i.e., a direct ally to Thjazi Fang and his fellows. There is no way they wouldn’t be paying attention to who that Arcane Marshal was!

And yet nothing comes of it. At first I tried to explain it away as House Tachonis simply shrugging off a commoner loose thread, being so busy with other schemes, but I don’t think I can buy it anymore. Not when they threw a whole manhunt at Demodus Blix. Not when they let Casimir live to reach his little squalid barony instead of killing him outright. For as fast and loose as Primus was in the last scene we got of him going full fuck this fuck you fuck all of this we have to get out of town now now now, House Tachonis might be corner-cutting, but they don’t leave loose threads when they’re aware of them. And Azune is right there! Azune has BEEN there, his name showing up in all the paperwork to do with the Palazzo Davinos massacre and the Tachonis investigation! He should be on their radar twice over!

Unless, somehow, Tachonis wasn’t aware of Azune’s role in the way we’ve been assuming. Because all they could be aware of was what Casimir was aware of. And what information do we know for certain Casimir gave up?

Thimble and the hideout location. The Crow Keepers broke in, knocked Thimble out, stole the Stone of Nightsong.

Occtis’ involvement with Thaisha as part of the getaway wagon. Occtis is marked as not only a sacrificial component, but a traitor to their house. Ethrand calls him such.

Talcydimir as a fellow driver, though after the fact. Cyd runs off with the Sloak deed and gets caught later in Timmony.

And the Misty Step glyph. We know for certain that he mentioned the use of a glyph for Thjazi to escape to the other side of the wall, otherwise that fake glyph would not be there.

But there’s a snag.

If Casimir had said, “They’ve got an Arcane Marshal working for them on the inside. They’re supposed to throw the arcana scan and check to make sure the glyph’s in place before Thjazi gets to the noose,” that would explain the illusory arcane signature on the glyph. It doesn’t explain the vacuum of repercussions for the Arcane Marshal in question, who the enemy would have had eyes out for.

Instead, what if all Casimir gave them was, “They’re going to plant a Misty Step glyph on Thjazi so he can get to the other side of the wall,” with no mention of a mole in the Arcane Marshals at all? It would make sense! Especially considering one of the few things Thjazi told Azune during their Message chat was an apology for keeping his distance. And we’ve since learned that it wasn’t just Thjazi. Thimble kept that same distance to the point that she doesn’t even know where Azune lives. Mara the Wing didn’t recognize him. I’d bet money that nobody short of fellow Falconer rebels and Torn Banner crew would clock Azune Nayar as anything other than a straightforward Arcane Marshal of the Guard, full stop.

And if Azune Nayar’s name wasn’t on anyone else’s radar—if Casimir himself didn’t know to give up that name, despite serving alongside the kid in the war—then we can assume that whoever was doing the bulk of the coordinating for the plan, likely Thimble, was still maintaining Azune’s secret status. Either Cas was so checked out and jaded over the failed promise of the rebellion that he assumed Azune Nayar really had washed his hands of Thjazi Fang and moved on to a career that let him see his former leader hanged, or he was so distant from the whole thing that he had no clue Azune was with the Arcane Marshals at all.

But hey! The sabotage worked either way! Snap!

Casimir washed his hands of it and went to pay his debts and have a drink.

House Tachonis moved on to the rest of their busy itinerary.

And Thjazi Fang was hanged with an unbroken fake glyph in his coat.

A fake glyph that should pointedly not have shown up on Arcane Marshal’s scan at all if Casimir’s notion of the plan went through. Because if Casimir had no clue there was an ally in the Arcane Marshals in on the escape, Tachonis didn’t either. And so the glyph was supposed to be there only to fool Thjazi, likely passed off the same way his blood-paint for the Hallowed Round was meant to be hidden under an illusion of weakness. As far as Casimir and Tachonis knew, the escape plan was meant to involve a Misty Step on the glyph, but with a magic cover on it that wouldn’t get a blip from anyone in the Arcane Marshals doing a scan.

Which means, if that glyph were left alone, Azune would have picked up on an issue in the scan, simply because it would reveal no magical ping to announce the escape plan was on track. The absence of a ping would have made him hit the brakes and pass the emergency on to Thjazi in Message, maybe scrambling for a plan B.

Meaning somebody else caught the mistake before it was too late and slapped the Misty Step illusion on the glyph before Azune could catch the empty scan. Somebody who recognized Azune Nayar as Thjazi’s ally before Thjazi even made it into the Tachonis wagon; a man on the inside about to pull a martyr play…

…and then, when the execution went through, that same person did not rat Azune out to anyone. Not to the Tachonis, not to the Crow Keepers. Nobody.

This same person was not only involved with the Tachonis plot, but had to be able to get that fake Misty Step stamp on the glyph immediately upon learning Lt. Nayar was the Arcane Marshal doing the scan. Someone who would have that magic locked and loaded already. Someone who Thjazi Fang wouldn’t raise an eyebrow over getting in close enough to plant the glyph on him, coming as a friend or a bribed hireling or else someone wearing invisibility outright. Someone who has held their tongue for going on two weeks without giving up Azune’s role.

Which is all to say: