Well, Holmes, my dear ...
It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data.
... said Sherlock Holmes , as it happenes in âA Scandal in Bohemiaâ - by Aurther Conan Doyle, as mentioned in the book âGIS : A Computer Science Perspectiveâ by Michael F. Â Worboys.
Gödel has said quite a long time ago that you canât have a logical system which is both consistant and complete. I will not go in the exact meaning of this statement, but is suffices to say, that generally, a logical system. i.e. a system of statements, where you deduct some statement from others, and there are no conflicts, if consistant, i.e. does not lead to paradoxes, can not be complete- i.e. there will always be some statements which, although you can express in the system, you wonât be able to prove.
Let that sink in for a bit.
Example : The theory of relativity is a rather well known theory of physics, and while using the theory, you can deduct a vareity of effects observed in Mercuryâs orbit, you canât prove that the lightâs speed is a natural limit / a constant. You can formulate the statement, that the speed of light is the maximum and a natural constant everywhere in the observable universe, but you canât prove it. (In fact therein lies the strength - starting form a very simple assumption, we can actually predict - using theoritical calculation and logical reasoning - without having to depend on observation, which is actually reflected in the observation !! )
So what do we learn ?
We learn that we often theorize without Data. In fact, in science, itis more important to be consistant than complete. I found this image in the net :
Strictly speaking, I am possibly doing a semantic argument (not forbidden, but not the strongest form of the argument) - but that does nto matter - because I am not interested in knowing absolute âallnessâ of the qualifier âallâ here - I will speak of the tendency.
It is very clear that the word âallâ here means âtedencially allâ, and that is not up to debate. Right? See while the intention in Bible is to be as complete as possible, the important part in science is to be consistant. We know we are not complete. That is okey. We are more interested in being consistant.
Now that science is consistant, it is necessarily incomplete. There is always a limit of what science can deduce. Thus, logically, science has (at least) a start and an end. In practice, science is not a single prose with a start and end (with each intermediate sentence being logically deduced from the previous one), but a collection of such proses. As such it has several beginnings.
None of these beginnings can be deduced from anything else. These are called postulates or axioms (actually, there is a difference between them, but that is not important here). In the previous example, the statement about the speed of light was a postulate. In Fermi - Dirac statistics, the postulate is that the Pauli Exlcusion Principle is obeyed. In case of Bosons, they donât obey the Pauli Exclusion Principle, and an unlimited number of particles can condensate to the same energy state. This, in fact, where the vision of the theory lies, that Bose allowed the particles to break PEP. Bose did not have the data, but that did not stop him from theorizing.Â
Moral : The Vision of a scientist is the ability to understand where a particular formulated theory describing the events of nature ends and what comes beyond the same.
Global warming naysayers, take note : Just because you claim otherwise, that the theories governing the warming world does not break. Moreover, if they do break in an exotic setup, present earth does not belong to that setup. So for the case of Earth, the status quo remains as the theories of warming predict.
Moreover, vision is not what Steve Jobs had, but what Plank had, what Bose had, what Mandelbrot had ... These days, just because Elon Musk thinks of a fast transport system, we assign him the title of visionary, while he is simply digging up / tinkering around existing ideas - he does not / did not come up with a fundamental conflict with a theory describing the universe - nor did he offer anything fundamentally new. I do understand, that to the mass of the populace, the concepts of Bose condensate is out of reach, so they can hardly realize where the wonder of the same lies, whereas Muskâs new transportation system lies out of their box all right, and as such it suddenly becomes a âvisionaryâ one.
We learn that theorization is a bit complex. I would like to first show this :
Courtesy: Spiked Math. Mathematics, in its complete entirity, is mostly an intricate interplay of axioms and postulates - practically assumptions. Precisely as such arises the question 10, 13 and 14 this list. This is from Wikipedia, and in case a future version delets the list, here is a local copy :
What is the role of Mankind in developing mathematics?
What are the sources of mathematical subject matter?
What is the ontological status of mathematical entities?
What does it mean to refer to a mathematical object?
What is the character of a mathematical proposition?
What is the relation between logic and mathematics?
What is the role of hermeneutics in mathematics?
What kinds of inquiry play a role in mathematics?
What are the objectives of mathematical inquiry?
What gives mathematics its hold on experience?
What are the human traits behind mathematics?
What is mathematical beauty?
What is the source and nature of mathematical truth?
What is the relationship between the abstract world of mathematics and the material universe?
Honestly, I donât even know how to approach this. I tried to read on the topic, but it is a very very slippery slope. The authors pretty soon start appealing to properties of human nature - such as search for beauty, truth, perfectness ... That does not answer the questions of the list.
If a sufficiently inteligent machine can create axioms, and feed them to an appropriate neural network, very possibly the same mathematics will rise as we know it.
May be not. Since we do not really know much about the ontological status (heck, do we even know the meaning of âbeingâ ? ) mathematical objects or the truth they represent, we donât even know the status quo of their existance. Thus we canât take the uniqueness thereof as a universal truth, and canât claim all mathematics, regardless of source is the same.
Then comes the question of the Frame Problem . As a meteorologist, I am interested in pushing the envelops of radiosondes, and that is why I am interested in the frame problem. While this is often studied in the frame of logic, it has an extremely profoud impact in robot based cartography. A robot does not necessarily take the same set of statements as axioms as a human mathematician is taking. Thus, their perception of world is different than that of a human mathematician. Wait a minute! A human mathematician does not base his axioms necessarily on the observable world.
I do not know how far these two points drive / modify each other.
Nonetheless, theorization does appear to be more complex than Holmes is saying.
Moral : Theorization is a process that can start without Data, and often does so. That is how science progresses.
Is Sherlock then completely out of his minds?Â
Let us take a closer look at theorization.
Bose was thinking of the limits of Pauli Exclusion Principle (PEP). He thus theorizes the existance of a world without PEP, and data was found to support his claim. Notice, that the process that started with an assumption, completes the cycle at the finding of the necessary data.
Bose has the vision (probably not an epiphany, but unimportant) of breaking the PEP. That is his axiom (ehhh, postulate). He then deduces a set of statements using the Axiom and other proven statements. The new set of statements, along with his vision / axiom is now a Hypothesis. The hypothesis is a perfectly valiid theory in the sense of the word as in mathematics. In mathematics, one does not need a set of confirmation form the natural world.
Now once we have data to verify this, the hypothesis becomes a valid physical theory.
The entire process is the one of theorization.
Moral : You can very well start theorization without data, but you cant finish it with a guaranteed validity in the physical world without data.
The rightness of Holmes in a physical world thus, while debatable, is not entirely nonexistant, is it?