James R. Stutzman

TO-DO LIST: WIN

We know your weekend is filled with nothing but countless chores and errands, which is why we always preview in this e-newsletter the best races on Saturday to give you a head start with your handicapping so you can play and win with TVG, America’s leading horse racing network and wagering website! For exclusive analysis and selections for the $150,000 Daytona (G3) at Santa Anita, click here. For exclusive analysis and selections for the $100,000 Hal’s Hope (G3) at Gulfstream Park, click here. For exclusive analysis and selections for the $125,000 Gazebo at Oaklawn Park, click here. For exclusive analysis and selections for the $100,000 Franklin Square at Aqueduct, click here.

YOU CAN’T WIN IF YOU DON’T PLAY

No matter how busy you may be, definitely carve out some time this Saturday to play in our FREE Super 8 contest! That’s because if you pick the winners (one choice per race) in all eight designated races, you’ll win $100,000! But don’t despair, if you don’t correctly select all eight winners, consolation pools exist for those players who get five or more correct. Visit TVG.com or 4NJBets.com for more information.

ON THE SATURDAY NIGHT MENU

Four of the nine races on the Sam Houston card this Saturday (first post 7:00 pm ET) are stakes races, culminating with the $100,000 MAXXAM Gold Cup, so it’s the perfect opportunity to take advantage of our exclusive Money Back Special, which means we’ll automatically refund your first win wager (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third all night long. But you must opt-in first at TVG.com or 4NJBets.com, so do that now, and then get your money back if the horse you wager on to win finishes second or third!

THE PERFECT COMBINATION

Every day this month, you can win even more with our 10% Exacta Bonu$ Bucks$ offer on select tracks (for example, Friday is Gulfstream Park). So opt-in now at TVG.com or 4NJBets.com to be eligible to earn our exclusive Bonu$ Buck$ (up to a maximum of $100 per day and $2,800 for the month).

WE’RE WAITING FOR YOU

With so many ways to watch TVG, TVG2 and TVG Racebook, there’s never been a better time in racing history to watch and wager on every race, every day! On demand examples include TVG.com (and 4NJBets.com), Watch TVG (Amazon, Apple TV and Roku) as well as TVG and 4NJBets.com Mobile!

The post PLAY WITH TVG, SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2018 appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

Are late scratches under-accounted for? Yes, absolutely! Take advantage of other bettors’ confusion or misguided reliance on morning line odds by focusing on any contender that becomes a standout after late scratches, and get a leg up on the players that made their decisions the night before and/or earlier in the day.

How many times does this happen? You handicap a full field on the morning of a race. There are:

– 16 entries, with 12 starters and 4 Also Eligibles (AEs).

– At noon, three late scratches are announced from the main field, BUT

– Three of the four AEs also decide to scratch anyway.

– Thus, 10 runners remain.

– But the original morning line odds reflect a comparison of 16 runners, yet 40% of the field is now not competing.

This is still a fairly large field, but with enough pieces of the puzzle missing to make it worth taking a fresh look at the situation.

What hasn’t changed? A fit contender is still a fit contender. A horse suited to the distance is still suited to the distance. A good workout is still a good workout.  Barring late rider changes, the connections are unchanged. This data can be studied the night before without concern about the potential effects of late scratches.

And what has changed due to the late scratches?

Pace, post position, fair odds and exotics pay out value.

Pace scenarios must be re-evaluated. The original field may have included three or four speed horses with a speed duel anticipated. Each speed horse would be at a disadvantage, either involved in an early chase or forced to rate to avoid the duel. But now a single speedster may remain after late scratches, resulting in a completely new pace scenario and much improved chances for the surviving entry.

Post positions must also be re-evaluated. It’s an obvious but often overlooked fact that if the inside horses scratch, a mid-pack runner could now be starting in the rail post position, while a horse with a terrible outside post may now find itself with a much better chance from a mid-gate post position. In the above scenario, #12 could be breaking from post 9, and #16 could draw in as post 10.

And most importantly, when the morning line favorite scratches, the whole situation changes. The entire race must be re-evaluated from both the perspective of how the race will unfold and how the public will bet without the morning line favorite.

But people still cling to the morning line as a guide, even though the situation has drastically changed and the morning line odds are now horribly off base!

Of the remaining contenders, bet any that become standouts after the scratches. Take a fresh look at the remaining entrants. Set aside your previous conclusions and re-evaluate the race based only on the horses that will enter the starting gate.

Requirements to play this angle:

– Late scratches occur, sometimes in large numbers due to weather.

– Some handicapping variables are not affected by late scratches like evaluating fitness, workouts, distance and the horse’s connections.

– However, pace, post position, fair odds and exotics value are affected by a shrinking field.

– If the morning line favorite scratches, the entire race must be re-evaluated from both the perspective of how the race will unfold and how to bet.

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.

The post DEALING WITH LATE SCRATCHES AND CHANGES appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita: The good news is that I didn’t get sucked into the AX MAN pre-race hype, who finished off the board at 2/5. But the bad news is I also didn’t isolate the winner (KANTHAKA, $24.20), who is now a perfect two-for-two at the quirky seven furlong distance.

Santa Maria (G2) at Santa Anita: As expected, UNIQUE BELLA ($2.20) could not have been more impressive in her 2018 debut. And when MOPOTISM finished second, that made my $50 straight exacta worth $130.00, demonstrating how you can turn a 1/9 shot into a decent profit by aggressively playing the exotic pools.

Gulfstream Park Turf (G1) at Gulfstream Park: Live by the exotic pools and die by the exotic pools. That was the case in this race as I had HEART TO HEART ($7.20) as my top selection, but got split in the exactas when KURILOV beat out HI HAPPY for second.

Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay: I was concerned FLAMEAWAY ($22.60) could be the controlling speed of the race, which is why I listed him as my longshot value play. But unfortunately, I did not recommend any wagers on the son of Scat Daddy, so I’ve got absolutely nothing to show for that momentary flash of brilliance! LOL

The post RECAP OF SELECTIONS FROM 02/10/18 appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

Race 4 (Saturday, February 24, 2018: 5:00 p.m./ET; 2:00 p.m./PT)

About six and one-half furlongs on turf (four-year-olds and upward)

Trainer Peter Miller has become a dominant force in Southern California and is represented by three of the seven runners ready to rock and roll down the hillside turf course in the feature race at Santa Anita this Saturday, the Daytona Stakes (G3). Miller’s most notable entrant is STORMY LIBERAL, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) winner, making his 2018 debut. Let’s analyze the field beginning with the inside post position:

#1 FABOZZI hasn’t been seen since a fourth place finish going a mile in the Thunder Road Stakes (G3) last April. Two of this gelding’s three lifetime wins have come on this Santa Anita turf course, but note he finished fourth (beaten two lengths) to #7 STORMY LIBERAL and #6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC in a downhill sprint last year. Even though his trainer, Mark Glatt, wins at a high 26% clip with his trainees making their first start off a layoff longer than 180 days, it won’t be an easy task to win this race off the lengthy vacation.

#2 TOMBELAINE ships in to Southern California for trainer Catherine Day-Phillips off a fourth place finish in the five-furlong Gulfstream Park Sprint, in which the second place finisher in that race came back to win a stake. Hall of Famer Mike Smith takes the call. Interesting.

#3 WHAT A VIEW makes his 2018 debut after an eight-and-a-half month break for the Kenneth Black barn. This gelding has plenty of class, having won the Frank Kilroe Mile (G1) in 2016 and only losing by a head in the 2017 edition. He seems to want to run a bit farther than this and according to Black, this is a prep run for a route race down the road.

#4 CONQUEST TSUNAMI comes off a snappy four-and-a-half length win going down the hill in his So. Cal debut last month. Not often you see runners winning by that large of a margin on the turf, and now he makes his second start on the course while facing a deeper field. Tougher spot, yes, but major player off the big win nonetheless.

#5 CALCULATOR ran outstanding in the Clockers Corner Stakes on January 28, setting fast fractions early and motoring home late for a fast-paced win. He is undefeated (three-for-three) when racing down the hill. Another contender from the Peter Miller barn.

#6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC makes his second start off a six-month break for trainer Bob Hess Jr. This gelding put up a good effort in the Clockers Corner, sitting off the pace before making a nice run down the lane to complete the trifecta. He hits the board a lot more often than he wins and keep in mind that he has finished behind CALCULATOR in both starts they’ve met.

#7 STORMY LIBERAL makes his 2018 debut and rounds out the trio of runners for trainer Peter Miller. This guy won a thriller two starts ago, scoring at 30/1 in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) before traveling to Hong Kong one month later and finishing well behind in a Group 1. He is seven-for-12 down the hill, but how much did the Hong Kong trip take out of him?

SELECTIONS

#4 CONQUEST TSUNAMI – Big win last month on this course.

#5 CALCULATOR – Three for three down the hill.

#6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC – Consistent sort a good one to use in exotics.

LONGSHOT VAUE PLAY- #2 TOMBELAINE – Shipper merits respect.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my four selections in exactas and trifectas and make a $2 win bet on my longshot value play.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$2 Exacta Box: #2 TOMBELAINE and #4 CONQUEST TSUNAMI and #5 CALCULATOR and #6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC ($24).

$1 Trifecta Box: #2 TOMBELAINE and #4 CONQUEST TSUNAMI and #5 CALCULATOR and #6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC ($24).

$2 Win: #2 TOMBELAINE

(Bankroll at -$184.00 after 2018 Week #2 Based on $50 Wagers; -$70.00 last Newsletter).

  The post $150,000 Daytona (G3) – Santa Anita appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

Saturday, February 24, 2018 (5:35 p.m./ET: 2:35 p.m./PT)

One mile on the main track (four-year-olds and upward)

IRISH WAR CRY, considered one of the top three-year-olds of 2017, makes his 2018 debut for trainer Graham Motion in this race. Also making their first starts of 2018 in this spot are multiple stakes placed runner ECONOMIC MODEL for trainer Chad Brown and New York-bred star SEND IT IN, while 2017 Rebel Stakes (G2) winner MALAGACY looks to rebound after a second place finish in his 2018 debut. Plenty of quality runners in this one:

#1 IRISH WAR CRY hasn’t been seen since a 14-length loss in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) in September. This colt ran the best race of his life over this track last year, when he earned a 101 Beyer while defeating Grade I winners GUNNEVERA and CLASSIC EMPIRE in the Holy Bull (G2). He usually does his best work when racing on the lead, so wouldn’t be surprised to see this guy get aggressive from the inside post and try to steal it up front.

#2 ECONOMIC MODEL is another one that hasn’t raced since the fall. Four months ago, the Chad Brown trainee defeated five other rivals in an allowance race at Aqueduct. This racer has some back class, as evidenced by his second place finish in the Kings Bishop (G1) and third in the Bold Ruler (G3). Both races were run at seven furlongs, so he should love this one-turn mile. Contender.

#3 CONQUEST BIG E put up a big effort in his last start, finishing second at 15/1 behind TOMMY MACHO in the Fred Hooper Stakes (G2) over this track. The field he faces here isn’t any easier.

#4 TOWER OF TEXAS makes his first start on dirt. The son of STREET SENSE has only run once this year, that race resulting in a length-and-a-half score in a turf stake at the Fair Grounds. Taking a ‘wait and see’ approach to see how he takes to the new surface.

#5 QUIJOTE has been well beaten in his last two races, both against easier company, and will need to improve significantly to be competitive in this race.

#6 MALAGACY made his first start off a nine-month layoff in his last appearance, an allowance race over this track, and finished a ok second. That said, there is reason to believe he may take a step forward with a race under his belt. Last year, this son of SHACKLEFORD won two races over this track and also won the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn. Shouldn’t be completely ignored.

#7 GIUSEPPE THE GREAT adds blinkers for trainer Nick Zito after a 10 length loss in the Fred Hooper (G3) last month. He’ll need to turn the tables on #3 CONQUEST BIG E while defeating some new legit stakes horses signed on here.

#8 SEND IT IN was a half-length winner of the Excelsior (G3) at Aqueduct last April while earning a sky high 119 Beyer Speed Figure. He hasn’t raced since then, but trainer Todd Pletcher strikes at a high 33% win rate with his trainees making their first start off a layoff longer than 180 days. Two of his five workouts on the page are bullets and Pletcher’s go-to rider John Velazquez is signed on to ride. Things to like here.

SELECTIONS

#2 ECONOMIC MODEL – Talented horse makes his four-year-old debut.

#1 IRISH WAR CRY – Should appreciate class relief.

#6 MALAGACY – One of two Pletcher runners signed up.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #8 SEND IT IN – First start in South Florida.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Win: #2 ECONOMIC MODEL

(Bankroll at -$184.00 after 2018 Week #2 Based on $50 Wagers; -$70.00 last Newsletter).

                              The post $100,000 Hal’s Hope (G3) – Gulfstream Park appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

Race 8 (Saturday, February 24, 2018: 5:38 p.m./ET: 2:38 p.m./PT) Six furlongs on the main track (three-year-olds)

Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has a strong 1-2 punch in the feature race on Oaklawn’s Saturday afternoon card. Will Asmussen add another stakes win to his 2018 season or will trainers’ with the four other entrants in the race play spoiler? Let’s try to answer that question:

#1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE broke his maiden for a $20K tag five starts ago but has failed to beat winners since that victory. However, he has run second on three separate occasions in allowance optional claiming races and stacks up with most of these in terms of speed figures. May be best used underneath in exotics, if anywhere.

#2 DIRECT DIAL won the Texas Stallion Stakes at Retama Park in November before returning to the races three months later and running second as the odds on favorite in the Groovy Stakes at Sam Houston. Maybe he needed that last race off the brief break, and note ‘Dial’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, wins at a 21% clip with runners making their second start off a layoff between 45-180 days.

#3 MITOLE has run three career races and every start has been better than the last, culminating in his most recent race with a dominating ten-length win, defeating nine others rivals while earning a 96 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. The one to beat off the ‘freakish’ maiden score for the other Asmussen runner.

#4 BOURNE IN NIXA broke his maiden in his second lifetime start and came back to win an allowance race smartly at Churchill. In his most recent start, the Big Drama Stakes at Delta Downs, this Steve Margolis trainee finished sixth and last going seven furlongs. Reasons to believe he can run better than his last include maybe he didn’t like the bullring configuration of Delta.

#5 INGE ran third, beaten three lengths, over the sloppy Oaklawn dirt last time out. Interestingly enough, he finished behind #1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE that day. Now he makes his first start over a (projected) fast dirt track. On paper, it looks like he needs to run a bit faster than he has been to be competitive, but he is conditioned by a trainer (Norman McKnight) that wins at a 32% clip.

#6 WILD CARMELO was beaten 14 lengths in his last start, an allowance race over this track. His best race to date came against allowance company at Remington Park, where he finished two lengths ahead of #1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE in December.

SELECTIONS

#3 MITOLE – Maiden win was impressive.

#4 BOURNE IN NIXA – Cuts back in distance.

#2 DIRECT DIAL – Second off the brief layoff.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE – Longshot to consider in exotics. 

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll key my top pick over my other three selections in exactas and trifectas.

BANKORLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$10 Exacta: #3 MINOLE over #2 DIRECT DIAL and #4 BOURNE IN NIXA ($20).

$5 Trifecta: #3 MINOLE over #1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE and #2 DIRECT DIAL and #4 BOURNE IN NIXA ($30).

(Bankroll at -$184.00 after 2018 Week #2 Based on $50 Wagers; -$70.00 last Newsletter).

                                    The post $125,000 Gazebo – Oaklawn Park appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

Race 3 (Saturday, February 24, 2018: 1:50 p.m./ET; 10:50 a.m./PT)

Six furlongs on the main track (three-year-old New York-bred fillies)

The Franklin Square, a New York-bred stake for three-year-old fillies, gets to showcase runners sired by relatively new New York stallions TRINNIBERG, TEUFLESBERG, and EMCEE. Let’s take a look at each runner in the field and try to come up with a winner:

#1 VELVET TRINNI broke her maiden last time out, defeating eight other runners in a maiden $40K claimer for New-York bred fillies. Even though this daughter of TRINNIBERG just recently picked up her first career win, she ran fifth in a stake two starts ago to #5 AUNT BABE, who finished almost five lengths ahead of this gal. An exotics placing appears to be her ceiling unless she takes a major step forward.

#2 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE was beaten two lengths in her most recent start, an allowance optional claiming event. That said, she encountered some trouble in the race, stumbling at the start before getting bumped around at the eighth pole. In with a chance for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, who is hitting at a 31% win clip this Aqueduct Winter meet.

#3 TRINNI NINJA is a maiden facing winners. After finishing second in a New York-bred maiden special weight at 115/1, this gal ran fourth, beaten nine lengths, in the East View Stakes. Outclassed. 

#4 BEAUTIFUL BUZZ broke her maiden stylishly in her career debut and crossed the wire second in an allowance optional claiming event last month, which was her most recent afternoon appearance. Both career runs were solid. One to consider.

#5 AUNT BABE won the New York Stallion Series Stakes at 39/1 in December before finishing eighteen lengths behind the winner in a stake last month. That most recent poor effort came routing, so maybe this filly just wants to sprint. Five career starts to her name with two wins and three off the board finishes designates an inconsistent filly.

#6 MY ROXY GIRL cuts back in distance after a neck win against open starter allowance company at Aqueduct. She loves the Aqueduct dirt, too, having won three races from five career starts over the surface. Good enough to be competitive with her best effort.

  SELECTIONS

#6 MY ROXY GIRL – Loves AQU.

#2 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE – Troubled trip last time.

#4 BEAUTIFUL BUZZ – Consistent runner merits respect.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #5 AUNT BABE – Only stake winner in the field.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my top three picks in exactas as well as make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$20 Win: #6 MY ROXY GIRL

$5 Exacta Box: #2 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE and #4 BEAUTIFUL BUZZ and #6 MY ROXY GIRL ($30).

(Bankroll at -$184.00 after 2018 Week #2 Based on $50 Wagers; -$70.00 last Newsletter).

                                                  The post $100,000 Franklin Square – Aqueduct appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

Race 6 (Saturday, February 10, 2018: 5:30 p.m./ET: 2:30 p.m./PT) Seven furlongs on the main track (three-year-olds)

Previous winners of this event include NYQUIST (2016), IMPERIALISM (2004), and SILVER CHARM (1997). Let’s see if we can find another possible gem in the rough in this year’s San Vicente (G2), starting with the inside post position:

#1 AX MAN went to the front and never looked back in his career debut, trouncing the opposition to win by nine-and-a-half-lengths while earning a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. The third place finisher in the race, LOMBO, has since come back to win two races: a maiden special weight event and the Robert B. Lewis (G3) last weekend. One of two talented runners signed on from the Bob Baffert barn, who has won this race nine previous times.

#2 MR. JAGERMEISTER is a Minnesota-bred that has won twice, both by double digit lengths. In his most recent start, he finished second (18 lengths clear of third) when defeated by AMY’S CHALLENGE, who came back to win the Dixie Bell Stakes at Oaklawn. He sports a couple of wicked fast workouts at Turf Paradise in preparation for this race, like a 57 and 3 five-furlong work on January 17 and a 1:10 and change six-furlong drill in his most recent workout. That said, this is a tough spot.

#3 NERO was a $950,000 sales purchase that has always been well regarded by the Baffert barn. He broke his maiden last time, defeating next out winner CURLY’S ROCKET in a photo finish. He is facing tougher now and will need to pick up the pace to win. Wouldn’t dismiss.

#4 ALL OUT BLITZ was a game winner of a strong six-furlong maiden special weight race at Los Alamitos in December, then came back to run second in the Sham (G3) to MCKINZIE, one of the top three-year-olds in the country. He cuts back in distance for this run (a move his trainer excels with) and has gotten better with each and every race. Improving sort merits respect.

#5 KANTHAKA beat a group of maiden special weight runners going this distance on December 26 and now tries winners for the first time. Is the only horse in the field that has won at this quirky seven-furlong distance.

#6 KRIS’ ROCKET KAT was an easy winner of a six-and-a-half furlong maiden special weight race on November 25 last time out. His only other run resulted in a fifth place finish behind subsequent graded stakes winners MOURINHO and INSTILLED REGARD. Bejarano picks this guy over #5 KANTHAKA and he has a stalking running style that suggests he’ll get a great trip just off the projected fast pace. Things to like here.

SELECTIONS

#6 KRIS’ ROCKET KAT – Tons of upside.

#1 AX MAN – Maiden score was eyepopping.

#4 ALL OUT BLITZ – Cuts back from a route to a sprint.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #3 NERO – The ‘other’ Baffert.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice and box my top three picks in exactas.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$20 Win: #6 KRIS’ ROCKET KAT

$5 Exacta Box: #1 AX MAN and #4 ALL OUT BLITZ and #6 KRIS’ ROCKET KAT ($30).

(Bankroll at -$114.00 after 2018 Week #1 Based on $50 Wagers; -$114.00 last

Newsletter).

The post $200,000 San Vicente (G2) Santa Anita Park appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

$200,000 Santa Maria (G2) Santa Anita Park

Race 4 (Saturday, February 10, 2018: 4:30 p.m./ET: 1:30 p.m./PT) Mile and a sixteenth on the main track (fillies and mares, four-years-old and upward)

Eclipse Award winner UNIQUE BELLA makes her four-year-old debut in this spot. Can the likely heavy favorite get beat? Let’s take a closer look at the field: 

#1 SHENANDOAH QUEEN finished fourth behind #2 MOPOTISM In the La Canada (G2) last time out and ran seventh, beaten 11 lengths by #5 MAJESTIC HEAT, two starts ago. Is not in great form right now.

#2 MOPOTISM was a game winner of the La Canada (G2), snapping an eight race-losing streak in the process. She’ll have to turn the tables on UNIQUE BELLA, who she finished third to in the La Brea (G1) two starts back, but an in-the-money finish is well within range.

#3 KATHY’S SONG was third in the American Oaks (G1) most recently and won the Miss America Stakes at Golden Gate Fields two races back, both of which were on turf. Her only career race on the dirt resulted a second place finish in a maiden special weight race two years ago. On the improve for the Baltas barn.

#4 UNIQUE BELLA won the La Brea (G1) last time out, defeating the very talented PARADISE WOODS and #2 MOPOTISM. Per usual, she sports several fast works and heads into this race as the one to beat.

#5 MAJESTIC HEAT disappointed in the La Canada (G2), sitting farther off the early pace than she prefers before plodding down the lane to run fifth. Before that effort, she easily defeated CHAMPAGNE ROOM and next out Megahertz Stakes winner MADAME STRIPES in the Bayakoa (G2).

SELECTIONS

#4 UNIQUE BELLA – Wildly talented filly.

#2 MOPOTISM – Classy enough to complete the exacta.

#5 MAJESTIC HEAT- Look for different riding tactic today.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#3 KATHY’S SONG – Tackles her elders.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll play a straight exacta with my top two picks.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Exacta: #4 UNIQUE BELLA over #2 MOPOTISM

  (Bankroll at -$114.00 after 2018 Week #1 Based on $50 Wagers; -$114.00 last Newsletter).

The post $200,000 Santa Maria (G2) Santa Anita Park appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

Race 9 (Saturday, February 10, 2018: 4:10 p.m./ET; 1:10 p.m./PT) Mile and an eighth on the turf (four-year-olds and upward)

The highlight of the 12-race program this Saturday in South Florida is the Gulfstream Park Turf (G1), which features a field of eight colts and geldings set to contest the nine-panel distance, with runners coming from top barns such as Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown and Bill Mott. Let’s analyze the field:

#1 HEART TO HEART appears to have ran poorly in the Fort Lauderdale (G2) last time out but you can toss that race as he reared at the start and lost all chance. This ultra-tough racehorse has won 13 times, is four-for-six over this turf course and two-for-three when racing today’s mile-and-an-eighth distance. All class.

#2 ONE GO ALL GO went off at 30/1 in The Fort Lauderdale (G2) and lost by a heartbreaking head. Has to prove to us again that his last big run at big odds was no fluke.

#3 KURILOV (CHI) was a Group 1 winner in Chile before shipping to North America two races back Since then, he has run fourth in an allowance race and third in a minor stake event, both on the main track. Has to step up his game.

#4 HI HAPPY (ARG) hasn’t been seen since April and now makes his first start for trainer Todd Pletcher, who takes over the conditioning from Southern California trainer Felipe Souza. The barn wins at a 34% clip with runners making their first start off a layoff longer than 180 days and look at who he has been running against: HARD ACES, SHAMAN GHOST, ISOTHERM, ITSINTHEPOST, RING WEEKEND, FLAMBOYANT, OM. Loads of class on that list. Longshot to consider.

#5 MONEY MULTIPLIER won the Monmouth Stakes (G2) last summer but has lost three times since then. Not seen since early mid-November when finishing fourth in the Red Smith Handicap (G3), he has shown a previous ability to fire big shots fresh.

#6 MARCH won an allowance optional claiming race in his first start back in late December after a 11 month layoff, so he now may be even more fit, but he faces much tougher company. #7 REVVED UP was third in the River City Handicap (G3) to next out winner SHINING COPPER, who came back to beat #1 HEART TO HEART and #2 ONE GO ALL GO in the Fort Lauderdale (G2). Before that effort, he dominated a group of allowance optional claiming rivals at Churchill Downs.

#8 CHANNEL MAKER makes his career debut against older horses after finishing a solid second in the Hollywood Derby (G1) at Del Mar. His only stakes triumph occurred against restricted Canadian-bred company at Woodbine.

SELECTIONS

#1 HEART TO HEART – Looks to rebound after a very troubled trip.

#5 MONEY MULTIPLER – Runs big fresh.

#7 REVVED UP – Finished right behind Fort Lauderdale (G2) winner last time

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #4 HI HAPPY – HUGE barn switch. WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my top two picks and longshot value play in exactas and make a straight win bet on my longshot value play.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget) $5 Exacta Box: #1 HEART TO HEART and #4 HI HAPPY and #5 MONEY MULTIPLER ($30).

$20 WIN: #4 HI HAPPY

(Bankroll at -$114.00 after 2018 Week #1 Based on $50 Wagers; -$114.00 last

Newsletter).

The post $300,000 Gulfstream Park Turf (G1) Gulfstream Park appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

Race 10 (Saturday, February 10, 2018: 4:52 p.m./ET; 1:52 p.m./PT) Mile and a sixteenth on the main track (three-year-olds)

Big name jockeys and trainers are well represented in this Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race which awards 10 valuable Kentucky Derby (G1) points to the winner, so let’s see if we can figure out who has what it takes to stamp himself as a player to keep an eye on as we move down the Derby trail:

#1 NAVY ARMED GUARD is a maiden facing winners and comes into race this off a solid second place finish as the betting favorite to the well-regarded Todd Pletcher trainee ROAD TO DAMASCUS. Won’t be an easy task.

#2 FLAMEAWAY is fresh off a win in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes on turf at Gulfstream last month. Although this guy has done his best work on turf, he won the Skidmore Stakes over a muddy track at Saratoga last summer. Simple question is whether he has the class to beat the best in here.

#3 VINO ROSSO makes his stakes debut after defeating allowance company over this track as the 1/10 favorite. This $410,000 son of Curlin has always been highly thought of by his connections. A legit contender from the Pletcher barn.

#4 SEPTIMIUS SEVERUS is making his third lifetime start while also facing stakes company for the first time. He broke his maiden against a large field of runners on November 25 at Aqueduct and was last seen running second to Derby contender IMPACT PLAYER. Eclipse award winning jockey Jose Ortiz rides for the first time. 

#5 HOLLYOOD STAR makes his three-year-old debut after finishing midpack while starting from an impossible wide post in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Before that effort, he finished second in both the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs and the Saratoga Special (G2) at Saratoga.

#6 CATHOLIC BOY finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) before his most recent afternoon appearance, a four-and-three-quarter length romp in the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct. Note the second place finisher in that race, AVERY ISLAND, came back to win the Withers (G3) last weekend. The one to beat.

#7 VOUCH broke his maiden impressively at Laurel Park before running a distant third to CATHOLIC BOY in the Remsen (G2). Joel Rosario rode this colt last time out but opts to ride #5 HOLLYWOOD STAR, so top Tampa Bay Downs rider Daniel Centeno takes the reins.

SELECTIONS

#6 CATHOLIC BOY – Improving every start.

#5 HOLLYWOOD STAR – Well spotted for his 2018 debut.

#3 VINO ROSSO – Expensive Pletcher purchase needs to be considered.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #2 FLAMEAWAY – Nice win on turf at Gulfstream last time out.

WAGERING STRATEGY I’ll key my top pick over my second and third selections in exactas.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget) $25 Exacta: #6 CATHOLIC BOY over #3 VINO ROSSO and #5 HOLLYWOOD STAR ($50).

(Bankroll at -$114.00 after 2018 Week #1 Based on $50 Wagers; -$114.00 last Newsletter).

The post $250,000 Sam F. Davis (G3) Tampa Bay Downs appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

CRUSH

Valentine’s Day is next Wednesday, so if you want to treat that someone special to something extra romantic, you may have to pad your bankroll, so what better way to do that than by playing and winning with TVG, America’s leading horse racing network and wagering website! For exclusive analysis and selections for the $300,000 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (G1), click here. For exclusive analysis and selections for the $200,000 San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita, click here. For exclusive analysis and selections for the $200,000 Santa Maria (G2) at Santa Anita, click here. For exclusive analysis and selections for the $250,000 Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay, click here.

BE MINE

We’ll always be together if you win $100,000 this Saturday in our FREE Super 8 contest! To play, simply pick the winners (one choice per race) in all eight designated races and that money is all yours! But don’t despair, if you don’t correctly select all eight winners, consolation pools exist for those players who get five or more correct. Visit TVG.com or 4NJBets.com for more information.

MADE FOR EACH OTHER

Nothing goes together quite like Kentucky Derby prep races and TVG, which is why we’re pleased once again this year to announce the renewal of our exclusive Money Back Special on Derby Preps promotion, which means we’ll automatically refund your first win wager (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in 19 remaining Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races between now and April 14th. The eligible Derby prep race this Saturday is the $250,000 Sam F. Davis (G3) from Tampa Bay, so opt-in now at TVG.com or 4NJBets.com and get your hard earned cash back if the horse you wager on to win finishes second or third!

FOR THE LOVE OF MONEY

Every day in February, you can earn even more when you win with our 10% Exacta Bonu$ Bucks$ offer on select tracks (for example, Friday is Gulfstream Park), but you must opt-in first to be eligible before earning our exclusive Bonu$ Buck$ (up to a maximum of $100 per day and $2,800 for the month).

SCREEN GRAB

With so many ways to watch TVG, TVG2 and TVG Racebook, there simply is no excuse not to be able to watch and wager on every race, every day! On demand examples include TVG.com (and 4NJBets.com), Watch TVG (Amazon, Apple TV and Roku) as well as TVG and 4NJBets.com Mobile!

The post PLAY WITH TVG, SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 2018 appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

Hurricane Bertie (G3) at Gulfstream Park: When a $120 horse lights up the tote board, like JORDAN’S HENRY did in this race, I like to go back and see what everyone (including me) missed. In retrospect, she’s still a very tough horse to find, but she’s now never been off the board in four Gulfstream Park tries and she certainly prefers one-turn races versus two. Congrats to those of who you who played her!

  W.L. McKnight (G3) at Gulfstream Park: I’ve often wrote in these pages that to beat this game, you have to be a solid handicapper AND apply strong wagering strategies. Case in point is this race, where I identified OSCAR NOMINATED ($9.40) as my third choice selection in the race with the comment ‘best makes him a major player’, yet didn’t allocate a penny of my budgeted wagering bankroll to him. Tough game!

  La Prevoyante Handicap (G3) at Gulfstream Park: I wasn’t close in my analysis of this race, but what caught my eye post-race is how good of a sire is CANDY RIDE? He sired the winner of this mile-and-a-half turf race (TEXTING, $16.80) as well as 2017 Eclipse Award winning Horse of the Year and 2018 Pegasus World Cup (G1) winner GUN RUNNER.

  Pegasus World Cup (G1) at Gulfstream Park: How in the heck did the $2 exacta of GUN RUNNER over WEST COAST pay $17.20? Goes to show you overlays exist every day at the track, even in the world’s richest race!

The post RECAP OF SELECTIONS FROM 01/27/18 appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

The subjective analysis of watching races and noting which horses got particularly good (and bad) trips is called trip handicapping. When a horse’s chances are compromised due to a poor ride or bad racing luck, it is noted so that the horse can be played next time out, hoping for better circumstances. Unfortunately for the trip handicapper, most bad trips are obvious and noted in the past performances and touted by professional selection services. Therefore, the most obvious bad trips often lead to heavy betting action the next time out.  

Then how can wagering value be found through trip handicapping? Focus on certain types of bad trips that often go unnoticed by the racing public. Horses that get smoothly shuffled back through the pack around the far turn often fall into this category.

Saving ground is often critical to winning races. Jockeys that maneuver their horses to the inside early in the race will stay down on the rail trying to save ground until the stretch. This helps a horse preserve energy as well as take a shorter path to the finish line. The end result is a horse that hopefully has a stronger finishing kick and an inside path to the wire. 

Unfortunately, the attempt to get a rail trip often backfires as early pacesetters tire and go in reverse through the field. When this happens, horses that have a good inside position need to move, but suddenly find themselves trapped and unless there is room to their outside, they are forced to take up — and back up — to avoid clipping heels with the tiring traffic in front of them. With no choice but to slow down, they often end up backing all the way out of the pack, and then must swing wide and try to regain the lost ground. These horses seldom win, but the good news for trip handicappers is that their trouble is often overlooked in the past performances.  

These rough trips are often mistaken for horses merely tiring late in the race. Unless the horse checks sharply before backing out of the pack, or makes a furious late rally, the bad trip usually gets few comments. Suppose a horse enters the far turn running third, just two lengths off the lead, but gets shuffled back to tenth, angles to the outside, then rallies past tiring horses to finish a non-threatening fifth. Such horse will often get past performance comments like ‘tired’, ‘wide, mild rally’ or ‘passed tired ones.’ Next time, the horse might get a better trip, and will only look like a horse that was well-beaten. More importantly, the odds are often generous.

This situation occurs most often in route races with large fields, often on the turf. It is very hard for race and chart callers to catch all the moves of a large field as the frontrunners falter and plummet through the pack while late closers are making their moves through traffic. A horse tracking the pace that gets shuffled back is easily mistaken for a tiring horse that finishes off the board. Make notes and play them next time out at a price.

Requirements To Play Shuffled Horses:

– Trip handicapping is most effective when the bad trips are subtle enough to avoid lots of attention.

– Identify horses that were the victims of bad racing luck that saved ground early and got stuck behind tiring horses.

– If the bad trip gets no comments in the past performances, the odds next time out will be much better than if the trouble attracted attention.

  Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through amazon.com and Xlibris Publishing (www.xlibris.com/ABettorWay.html

The post MASTERING TRIP HANDICAPPING appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

Race 9 (Saturday, January 27, 2018: 3:38 p.m./ET; 12:38 p.m./PT)

Seven furlongs on the main track (fillies and mares, four-years-old and upward)

#7 CURLIN’S APPROVAL is the queen of Gulfstream Park, with seven wins from 11 lifetime starts over the South Florida main track. She faces a full field of 11 other fillies and mares set to contest her favorite distance, seven furlongs. Will she make her eighth lifetime trip to the Gulfstream winner’s circle or will one of the other fillies and mares spoil the party? Let’s do our best to answer that question:

#1 MARLEY’S FREEDOM ships to Florida for trainer Bob Hess Jr. after a fourth place finish behind UNIQUE BELLA, PARADISE WOODS and next out Grade 2 winner MOPOTISM in the La Brea Stakes (G1). The field she faces today is much easier, but she’ll have to overcome the undesirable rail post position. Nonetheless, the drop in class makes her an interesting item. Her jockey today, big money rider Mike Smith, was aboard this gal when she won an allowance race at Del Mar two starts ago.

#2 JORDAN’S HENNY makes her first start in four months since a third place finish in the Dogwood Stakes at Churchill Downs. In terms of her speed figures, there are others in here that have run much higher numbers. She’ll need to run the race of her life to make an impact.

#3 RICH MOMMY has won four of her last five races, including last time out when she defeated #6 BODACIOUS BABE and six others in the Sugar Swirl (G3) over this track. That afternoon, she raced six furlongs, so today she’ll have to travel one extra furlong. Her only try at this distance resulted in an off the board finish.

#4 SHAR RAN is a lightly raced daughter of MUNNINGS that has won three of her five lifetime races. Last time out, she took the field gate to wire in an allowance race going this distance over this track. Even though she got a clear and easy lead that afternoon, she has proven she can stalk the pace and be effective. Tactical filly makes her graded stakes debut in this spot.

#5 APOLOGYNOTACCEPTED makes her debut for the Brendan Walsh barn. Her last race (under the conditioning of Bill Mott) came on July 30, when she was well beaten in the Grade 3 Shuvee Handicap at Saratoga. The good news is this gal is undefeated (three-for-three) over the Gulfstream dirt and trainer Walsh wins at a 29% rate with runners making their first start for his barn. That said, her speed figures are low compared to the other main contenders in here.

#6 BODACIOUS BABE finished two lengths behind #3 RICH MOMMY in the Sugar Swirl (G3) last month, but she was making just her first start in five months. Trainer Jane Cibelli wins at a 29% clip with runners making their second start off a break longer than 180 days, so there is reason to believe this mare can take a step forward with a race under her belt in this form cycle. Eclipse award finalist Jose Ortiz rides. 

#7 CURLIN’S APPROVAL is the one to beat after a solid second place finish behind LEWIS BAY in the Rampart (G3). She loves Gulfstream Park (seven-for-11), with four wins at this quirky seven furlong distance. Her career best Beyer Speed Figure (103) came when winning the Princess Rooney (G2) over this track in the summer.

#8 SPICE LADY is the most lightly raced runner in the field with just three lifetime starts. This Todd Pletcher trainee comes off a sharp five-and-half-length allowance score as the odds on favorite, going this distance over this track. She could take a step forward and run a big one with a race under her belt this year, or ‘bounce’ off that big effort. Tough call.

#9 MAGALIE won an allowance race going this distance over a ‘good’ dirt surface just 17 days ago. She wheels back quickly for this race against much, much tougher company and will need to step up her game to be effective.

#10 NONNA MELA, the second Todd Pletcher entrant in the field, finished third (behind #7 CURLIN’S APPROVAL) in the Rampart (G3). Before that, this one-turn specialist ran an even fifth in the Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland.

#11 MOONLIT PROMISE is a ‘synthetic freak’ who is six-for-nine over the all-weather surface at Woodbine. Last time out, this gal won the Bessarabian Stakes (G2) at Woodbine and defeated six other rivals in the Ontario Fashion Stakes (G3) going six furlongs in the start before that. If she likes the dirt, she’s an interesting one to consider for trainer Josie Carroll, who is one of the top conditioners at Woodbine.

#12 MONEY OR LOVE finished four lengths behind #7 CURLIN’S APPROVAL in October and was soundly defeated in her last start, a Florida-bred stakes event on November 11. She sports only one workout since that last race and has not been competitive against graded stakes company before. Longshot.

SELECTIONS

#1 MARLEY’S FREEDOM – Exits an outstanding race.

#7 CURLIN’S APPROVAL – Course specialist.

#6 BODACIOUS BABE – May run a big one second start off the layoff.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #11 MOONLIT PROMISE – Multiple graded stakes winner at Woodbine.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my four selections in exactas and make a token win bet on my top pick with the remaining two dollars I have left.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$4 Exacta Box: #1 MARLEY’S FREEDOM and #6 BODACIOUS BABE and #7 CURLIN’S APPROVAL and #11 MOONLIT PROMISE ($48).

$2 Win: #1 MARLEY’S FREEDOM

                            The post $175,000 Hurricane Bertie (G3) – Gulfstream Park appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

Race 8 (Saturday, January 27, 2018: 3:04 p.m./ET; 12:04 p.m./PT)

Mile and a half on the turf (four-year-olds and upward)

The male version of the La Prevoyante (G3) goes as race 8 on the Pegasus World Cup card at Gulfstream Park. Let’s dig deep and see if we can pick the horses that have the most ‘staying power’ in this competitive endurance test:

#1 MARKITOFF took nine tries to break his maiden but finally got the job done two starts ago on October 22. Coming off a two month freshening, this guy won an allowance race in his most recent start over this turf course, which was his first try against proven winners. Now he faces a new challenge of facing stakes company for the first time.

#2 FINAL COPY finished fourth and sixth, respectively, in the Commonwealth Derby (G3) and Sycamore (G2) in the fall. Coming off a two month freshening last time out, this Roger Attfield trainee finished fifth, beaten just two lengths, in an allowance race as the favorite. Back in against stakes competition, he’ll need to run his very best race to have a shot at the top prize.

#3 GOLD SHIELD was a dominant winner of an allowance race at Aqueduct two starts ago, blitzing his rivals in the mile-and-three-eighths contest by over a half dozen lengths. He came back to run third in the two-mile H. Allen Jerkens Stakes over this turf course. He should be dead fit cutting back in distance this afternoon. Contender.

#4 NESSY put up a solid second place finish in the Sycamore (G3) on October 19 and hasn’t been seen since. Trainer Ian Wilkes wins at a 13% clip when his trainees make their first start off a layoff between 61-180 days. In four starts at this distance, he has one win and one second, albeit against lesser company.

#5 BULLARDS ALLEY, co-high weight at 123 lbs, ran a gallant second when defeated by a head in the H. Allen Jerkins Stakes on December 31. However, his best race to date came in the Canadian International (G1) on October 15 at Woodbine, when this son of FLOWER ALLEY won by ten-and-three-quarters lengths at 42/1 odds. In with a solid chance on the cutback in distance.

#6 DUROCHER makes his first start for trainer Alan Benson after out finishing #8 MR. CUB for the win in the Tropical Park Derby for three-year-olds last month. This is his first start going farther than a mile-and-a-sixteenth, which is a whole new ballgame for this horse who likes to win races (five-for-11 lifetime).

#7 OSCAR NOMINATED, also weighted at 123 lbs, freshens for this race after a very poor effort in the Red Smith Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct on November 11. It’s worth noting jockey Jose Ortiz could have ridden #2 FINAL COPY or #9 INFINITE WISDOM but opts to ride this guy, which is only a positive sign. Son of KITTEN’S JOY can be competitive if he puts forth his best effort.

#8 MR CUB ran a solid second to #6 DUROCHER in the Tropical Park Derby last time out at odds of 21/1. But keep in mind this time around, he faces older horses and a lot better competition. He’ll need to take another step forward to be a factor.

#9 INFINITE WISDOM was fourth in the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes, finishing behind #5 BULLARDS ALLEY and #3 GOLD SHIELD. World renowned rider Frankie Dettori, who rides TOAST OF NEW YORK in the Pegasus World Cup (G1), is slated to hop aboard this turf marathoner (who has early zip) for trainer Brian Lynch.

SELECTIONS

#3 GOLD SHIELD – Cutting back in distance for Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey.

#5 BULLARDS ALLEY – The one to beat.

#7 OSCAR NOMINATED – His best makes him a major player.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #4 NESSY – Jock upgrade to better turf rider.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice and box my top three selections in exactas.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$20 Win: #3 GOLD SHIELD

$5 Exacta Box: #3 GOLD SHIELD and #5 BULLARDS ALLEY and #7 OSCAR NOMINATED ($30).

            The post $200,000 W.L. McKnight (G3) – Gulfstream Park appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.

Race 3 (Saturday, January 27, 2018: 12:30 p.m./ET; 9:30 a.m./PT)

Mile and a half on the turf (fillies and mares, four-years-old and upward)

Seven mares (no fillies) will travel twelve panels on the Gulfstream Park turf in this marathon event. Let’s analyze each runner in post position order:

#1 MISS NANCY was a non-threatening fifth in an allowance race over this turf course last time out. She has never run farther than a mile-and-seventy yards but she is bred to run all day, as her sire is ARCH and she is out of a FUSAICHI PEGASUS mare.

#2 SUMMERSAULT looks to snap a six-race losing streak. Her last appearance came in the Long Island Handicap (G3) two-and-a-half months ago, where she ran fourth as the 5/1 third choice. You have to go all the way back to April to find her last win, which came in the Orchid Stakes (G3) over this turf course, where she is 3-for-6 lifetime.                                         

#3 BEAULY (GB) is another one making her second start off a two-and-a-half month break. In her most recent start on December 30, this daughter of SEA THE STARS finished fourth in a minor stakes race over this turf course. Two starts back, she only lost by a length-and-a-quarter to WAR FLAG in the Flower Bowl Invitational (G1), and finished fourth to multiple Grade I winner MISS TEMPLE CITY three starts back. Hot riding Luis Saez gets the mount. He won seven races on Wednesday.

#4 DARING DUCHESS defeated #3 BEAULY in the Via Borghese Stakes over this turf course last time out. She went wire-to-wire that afternoon, so expect her to flash early speed again today. Jockey Jose Ortiz teams up with trainer Mike Maker, and they win at a 21% clip together.  

#5 TEXTING finished three lengths behind #4 DARING DUCHESS in the Via Borghese Stakes, so she’ll have to make up a few lengths on that rival. Her only try at this mile-and-a-half distance resulted in a good third place finish in The Long Island Handicap (G3) two starts ago. 

#6 TARALENA went off at 31/1 in the Via Borghese Stakes and finished behind three rivals signed on here (#3 BEAULY, #4 DARING DUCHESS and #5 TEXTING). Her last victory came four starts back in a ten-furlong allowance race at Belmont Park. She’ll need to improve to win this race.

#7 APPLE BETTY (IRE) was a convincing winner of the Dowager Stakes (G3) at Keeneland when last seen in October. She carries high weight of 123 lbs. and sports a bullet half-mile drill heading into this race and trainer Shug McGaughey III wins at a 17% clip with runners making their first start off a layoff between 61-180 days. With her best race, this five-year-old mare is a main contender.

SELECTIONS

#7 APPLE BETTY – Big win in the Dowager (G3) makes her the one to beat.

#4 DARING DUCHESS – Win in the Via Borghese was a beauty.

#3 BEAULY – Finished behind WAR FLAG and MISS TEMPLE CITY in prior starts.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #2 SUMMERSAULT – The ‘horse for course’.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Win: #7 APPLE BETTY

      The post $200,000 La Prevoyante (G3) – Gulfstream Park appeared first on TVG – HORSE RACING INSIDER BLOG.