During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 . With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, but they are not guaranteed . In summary, El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.














