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Strong economic forecasts and exceptional earnings bring the US back to an all-time record; S&P 500’s 2026 target raised to 8,000. With the US and Iran still debating about an extension of the ceasefire which would reopen Hormuz, oil has fallen below $95. The positive economic outlook extends to 2Q26. The path for many Central Banks is strictly tied to geopolitical developments, to the price of…

Expectations of an agreement between the US and Iran pushed the US stock market up,  just shy of an all-time record (which might be well set today). While oil has fallen below $100, the reopening of Hormuz is crucial in order not to raise inflation even further. Earnings are absolutely wonderful, beating all estimates, with a positive outlook which extends to 2Q26. The path for many Central Banks…

The Sovereign yield crisis shakes up a resilient, constructive stock market, just shy of an all-time record. President Trump mulls what to do with Iran after returning from the summit in Beijing, after Tehran insists for tolls to be paid in Hormuz even after the end of the conflict. Earnings are absolutely wonderful, beating all estimates: watch out for Nvidia on Wednesday after close. The…

A third up week brought the US Indexes to new all-time records, fuelled by speculation that the Strait of Hormuz could soon be open. But it is not to be, with Iran also likely deserting the second round of talks in Islamabad. Oil is on the rise, but still under $100. The earnings report for 1Q26 continues amid strong expectations: guidance will be key. The outlook for inflation and the path for…

The battle for Hormuz is about to start, with the US commanding a blockade of the region, after the failed talks in Pakistan. Oil rebounds above $100. There is a component of higher energy prices in March inflation report, while the headline number was benign. The earnings report for 1Q26 starts amid strong expectations: guidance will be key. The outlook for inflation and the path for many…

Last minute ceasefire for 2 weeks agreed between the US and Iran shortly before the President’s deadline; Hormuz reopened. Oil falls below $100. The March labour report was solid, with earnings forecast for 2026 upgraded once again to $320 (bottom up). The outlook for inflation and the path for many Central Banks is strictly tied to geopolitical improvements and to the price of oil; anything can…

The war enters the third week, with no side relenting in its attacks against the other. Next week all major Central Banks will offer an assessment of the impact of high energy prices on inflation. Oil is hovering above $100 a barrel. Fear of added inflation reprice risk in credit and can change the outlook for 2026 of many Central Banks. US earnings continue to be good, with technology continuing…

The war between the US and Israel against Iran is taking centre stage: the US President says that it is ‘very complete, pretty much’. Oil shoots to $120 a barrel, before declining. Fear of added inflation reprice risk in credit and change the outlook for 2026 of many Central Banks. US earnings continue to be good: Oracle’s report on Tuesday, after close, is a major focus for tech and AI. Watch…

Weak GDP, strong inflation (Core PCE Price Index), and the SCOTUS frame another volatile week. New 15% global tariffs by the US Administration get the world scrambling for answers and add to current uncertainties. One more week until we get to the hopefully calmer waters of March, with Nvidia in focus on Wednesday after close, when President Trump will speak. The biggest tail risks are the US…

Another difficult week for Wall Street, even with a positive CPI. AI capex is back in focus, and the market at the moment sees only the expenses and not the returns, punishing stocks. Earnings continue to make further progress, reaching 13.2% for 4Q25. All eyes on the Fed Minutes, even though there will likely be no action until June, with an update on GDP and the Fed’s favourite measure of…

Wild week for stocks as capex takes front stage; only the best in class in the AI race can thrive. The collective capex spending of the big 4 (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft) will exceed $600B in 2026, leaving Apple as a sole haven in large cap tech. Earnings continue to make further progress, reaching 13.0% for 4Q25. All eyes on the delayed January labour report on Wednesday, and on US…

Microsoft stumbles on lower Azure growth and higher AI spending; all companies that are spending without tangible returns are punished. The Fed stays on hold and says that its confidence in the US Economy has improved. President Trump appoints Kevin Warsh as next Chairman of the US Central Bank. Earnings make further progress, reaching double digit growth for the 5th quarter in a row. Next week…

The weakening of the USD, possibly due to geopolitical developments, has taken centre stage, with the American currency eyeing 1.20 against the Euro. Important earnings reports coming this week, with Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla due to report on Wednesday, with Apple, Visa, and Mastercard on Thursday. The Fed will be on hold on Wednesday, with the first possible cut coming in June, so earnings have…

Massive hits on Oracle and Broadcom after earnings shake markets; the Fed begrudgingly cuts rates for the third time this year. Three Central Banks meetings: BOE (25bp cut), ECB (hold), BOJ (25bp hike), but as usual the commentary will be key. Exceptionally rich week on the macro front, with a ‘Super Tuesday’ featuring the November labour report followed by the CPI on Thursday and by the Core PCE…

Calm after the storm: with confidence in the third cut of the year by the Fed on Wednesday restored, markets had a quiet week. Earnings and outlooks from Oracle and Broadcom on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, could offer a catalyst for the broader market. It looks as though the world economy has fared better than expected in the face of the new US Tariffs. The biggest tail risk is the US…

A shift in the Fed’s December stance resulted in a very strong rally for equities worldwide. It is important to pay close attention to the current Fed Chairman Powell in his speech on Tuesday; President Trump seems to have decided who to appoint as his successor, and the pick might be made known before Christmas. Trouble in crypto is extending risk-off sentiment to global markets, even though…

Uncertainty regarding market valuations and the possible unraveling of the AI trade elevate volatility and are pushing the indexes lower. Nvidia’s earnings, on Wednesday after market close, and the release of the September labour report on Thursday can swing the S&P 500 either way. The possible Fed cut in December looks 50/50 at best, and it may well turn out that the US Central Bank will be on…