Post CoVid-19: What will be different?
What will the economy and society be like post CoVid-19?
Let me start by thanking the heroes of the pandemic, the health care workers and other front line workers that helped the rest of us survive.
We have seen organizations and individuals step up and put people first during the pandemic. We don't need a pandemic to remember:
Start with what is the right thing to do. Its always people and the environment (including other living organisms) first.
People should be focused on using their talents to make a positive difference.
What about how society and the economy could change?
What shapes the 2nd order effects of a crisis? :
1. A crisis like this tends to accelerate trends that were already underway such as digitization.
2. A crisis makes what was not possible. Suddenly possible. Such as work from home.
3. It also shifts the priorities of the customer for purchase decisions. So a company that only viewed the crisis from a profit risk perspective (ie not people) are likely to be viewed with an unfavourable perspective.
So what are the possible effects?:
Governments and companies are realizing that lean SCM with low cost foreign suppliers of critical supplies falls apart during a wide crisis.
- So on-shoring suppliers, and factory automation will accelerate
For individuals, they realized how fragile their income stream is.
- So expect to see people getting involved in the side hustle and sharing economy where they can establish an alternative revenue income
- which means that businesses are going to have individuals as competitors.
Here are how things could accelerate:
3 digital contactless payments
4 virtual events/video meetings
6 health tracking & wearables
8 voice mobile applications
12. people will increase their savings
13. the demand for office real estate will drop
15. increased inventory holding policies
16. more redundancy in the supply chain
17. cash and liquid assets become priorities
18. more corporate acquisitions
19. a greater role of government to manage the economy
20. more demand by individuals for income security
21. Telemedicine will become popular.
22. More people will buy groceries online
23. People will hoard more
24. people will shift away from employment in discretionary income sectors due to their variability of income
25. interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future.
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