Braves Paul

Since it seems the 14-team playoff field is Swiftly becoming a reality, and I've already written a way to do it that isn't totally horrible, here's another way to do it:

Three division champions start their playoff journey in the LDS. No exceptions. Four wild cards in each league play a single-elimination Wild Card Round tournament to advance to the LDS.

While we're at it, should we also expand the LDS to a best-of-7 like the LCS and World Series?

Let's discuss:

Let me preface this with a personal disclaimer:

I prefer a smaller playoff field that weights the regular season more heavily and decreases the impact of randomness on a champion’s quest through the playoff gauntlet. I also understand that we are trending in this direction, so I want to get ahead of it with a sensible proposal that, in my view, is a solid compromise. Most importantly: It seems feasible and enjoyable.

PROPOSAL: 160-game schedule and 14-team postseason

Nick Markakis is not the first name that comes to mind when I’m asked to name all-time great defensive outfielders.  He isn’t flashy or speedy, and he doesn’t have a cannon for an arm, and I can’t pinpoint a memory of a great play he made.

However, he makes the most of the tools he has to be a very solid defender.  He rarely makes a mistake in the field and usually takes excellent routes to balls in play, and he has two Gold Gloves to show for it.

And through Tuesday, June 16th, he has played in 391 consecutive games in the outfield without making an error, one short of Darren Lewis’s all-time MLB record of 392 straight games.  Markakis can tie Lewis tonight and pass him tomorrow in front of his home crowd at Turner Field.  And almost no one will know about it.

(Fun anniversary fact:  Lewis broke the previous record 22 years ago today, June 16th, 1993, when he played his 243rd straight errorless game.  He then added a 149-game cushion.)

Darren Lewis’s streak is actually MLB’s longest games streak at any and all positions.  Or was, I should say.  Nick Markakis’s 391st consecutive errorless game in the outfield last night was actually his 393rd consecutive errorless game overall, including two games at first base, meaning Nick Markakis just broke a Major League record that no one is talking about.

And I get it.  Nick Markakis is not the greatest right fielder of all time, and an errorless streak seems more random than incredible with today’s fancy new stats flying around, especially considering being charged an error (or not) occasionally depends on how the official scorer in the stadium feels that day.

But an errorless streak of nearly 2½ seasons is still an incredible feat.

And it doesn’t stop here.  Markakis hasn’t totally pushed Darren Lewis out of the record books, and he never will.  Markakis’s errorless streak (in the outfield) has been entirely confined to right field.  Lewis played 387 of his 392 games in center field, and that 387-game streak will probably be the center field record for a long time.  Lewis’s streak was also at the start of his career (another record that will likely stand for a while), so he wasn’t even an everyday player yet when his streak began.

But what this really means is that Markakis has touched the baseball fewer times (i.e. had fewer opportunities to make an error) than Lewis did while Lewis was playing a slightly more difficult position (so conventional baseball wisdom says).  Lewis’s streak of 946 consecutive errorless chances* in the outfield is still Lewis’s record.  Markakis has handled only 790 chances in the outfield during his streak, but at about two per game, he could catch Lewis this summer if he avoids a miscue.

(*I put an asterisk by “chance” because it is an official MLB statistic, the sum of putouts, assists, and errors.  It does not include base hits fielded or involvement in other plays, all of which are opportunities to make an error.)

So there you have it:  a record very few people care about because errorless streaks are no longer as glamorous as they were in the early 1990s when Topps “Record Breaker” cards acknowledged them annually.  Like assigning “wins” to a pitcher, there are better statistics than errors to measure a player’s defensive ability.

But errors will always be part of the game, and this is a significant achievement that should be recognized.  Congratulations, Nick Markakis!

These are just ideas!  Food for thought, hopefully.

1. Remove the tie-in to home field advantage in the World Series and go back to alternating NL and AL home field advantage each year, or -- even better -- give the home field advantage to the team with the better regular season record.

2. Reduce the fan vote's impact to 50% and let the players and coaches vote for the other 50% impact. Fans would be similar to the House of Representatives (larger fan bases would carry more weight, as they do now), and the players and coaches would be like the Senate (same weight per team). For vote totals, use percentages. Add each individual player's percentage from fans to to the percentage from players/coaches, and divide by two to average the two. It still won't be perfect, but it will be better.

(Alternative: Also include the BBWAA and divide by three, or 50/25/25, whatever.)

3. For reserves, if a late June injury for an obviously deserving player will keep him out of the game, select him anyway. Don't take "All-Star" off his resume just because he got hurt. Select him, let him defer, and make another selection.

4. On the Sunday before the All-Star break, start all MLB games early (similar to the last day of the season last year), since some very entertaining All-Star festivities take place Sunday evening. Let the entire baseball world join in the fun of those events.

5. If #1 is approved and it’s back to being an exhibition, then allow players who have not played in 5+ innings to return if a game goes to extra innings.  This is just to avoid a tie, but if it’s truly an exhibition, I think it’s worth thinking about it.

6. [Added 6/4] LET FANS VOTE FOR PITCHERS. It’s ridiculous that we can’t. MLB’s excuse must be the effort required to put them on the ballot, but this is the 21st Century so that doesn’t work for me. If it were up to me, I’d want to choose three starters (similar to how we choose outfielders) and two relievers per league, but just one of each would be nice.  (If this ever happens, All-Star managers should still determine who starts the game the same way they do now.)

I’ve set some over/under bars for a few stats, asked a few questions, and listed several random achievements that most people won’t care about. Enjoy!

2014-to-2015 OVER/UNDER!

Compared to these 2014 totals, will the 2015 Braves achieve numbers that are higher or lower?

Team Totals: Wins: 79 (I say higher: ~85) Runs scored: 573 (I say higher: ~675) Runs allowed: 597 (I say higher: ~620) Home runs hit: 123 (I say lower: ~120) Batter strikeouts: 1369 (I say lower: ~1200) Number of hitters with 140+ strikeouts: 4 (I say lower: 1)

Individual Totals: Team leader, wins: 14 (I say higher: 16) Team leader, stolen bases: 20 (I say higher: ~25) Freddie Freeman, walks: 90 (I say lower: ~80) Freddie Freeman, home runs: 18 (I say higher: ~25) Nick Markakis, home runs: 14 (I say lower: ~10)

PREDICT THE 2015 BRAVES!

Will Craig Kimbrel earn 40+ saves? (previous totals were 46, 42, 50, 47) My guess: yes, although now with Padres Starting lineup: Who will hit leadoff the most? My guess: Young Starting lineup: Who will hit cleanup the most? My guess: Freeman Who will get the most starts in left field? My guess: Gomes Who will get the most starts in center field? My guess: Young Who is your lock to make the All-Star team? My guess: Freeman Which team leader in strikeouts will have more, the pitcher or the batter? My guess: pitcher, made easier by Uptons’ departure

NOTED NOTABLES:

Freddie Freeman is the first first baseman in the Braves’ Opening Day lineup for five straight seasons in Atlanta history, and the first in franchise history since Joe Adcock from 1953-57. (The only first baseman to do it six straight was Earl Torgeson from 1947-52 in Boston.)

Julio Teheran is the Braves’ first Opening Day starting pitcher in back to back seasons since Derek Lowe 2009-11 (before that: Greg Maddux 1993-96).

With Mike Minor (566 career strikeouts) on the DL, the franchise leader in strikeouts among pitchers on the active roster is Craig Kimbrel with 476 UPDATE: Julio Teheran with 371.

When Craig Kimbrel earns his 500th strikeout (in mid/late May?), he will be the fastest ever to reach that mark in terms of innings pitched or batters faced. (That record may be short-lived if Aroldis Chapman keeps up the strikeout pace he maintained in 2014.) UPDATE: This is still true, though Kimbrel will be in a San Diego uniform.

Nick Markakis has appeared in 147+ games in every year but one in his career (155+ in all but two). He is 135 games short of 1500 for his career.

AJ Pierzynski needs 133 hits to reach 2000 for his career. He has 133+ hits in 7 of the last 14 seasons, and 3 of the last 4.

Kelly Johnson is 17 hits (and 1 strikeout) from 1000 for his career.

Alberto Callaspo is 4 games from 1000, 305 plate appearances from 4000, and 117 hits from 1000 for his career.

Johnny Gomes has hit a home run in the first game after the All-Star break in three straight seasons.

Fredi Gonzalez is 8th on the Braves all-time managerial wins list with 358. He only needs 22 wins to pass Casey Stengel and Lum Harris, and 76 to tie Billy Southworth for 5th. (If he sticks around, he won’t approach 4th place until early/mid 2017.)

FRANCHISE: The 1,602nd plate appearance of the season will be the 300,000th since the Braves moved to Atlanta.

FRANCHISE: The 67th home run of the season will be the 7,500th since the Braves moved to Atlanta.  CHRIS JOHNSON, 8/3/2015, 7th INNING

FRANCHISE: The 45th double of the season will be the 30,000th in Braves franchise history (since 1871!).

TURNER FIELD: Entering 2015, the Braves have hit exactly 2,500 doubles at Turner Field.

TURNER FIELD: The 42nd game at Turner Field in 2015 will be the 1,500th regular season game in Turner Field history.  7/18/2015

TURNER FIELD: The Braves’ 1,591st at-bat at Turner Field will be their 50,000th since the park opened.

TURNER FIELD: The Braves’ 176th strikeout (batting) at Turner Field will be their 10,000th since the park opened.  FREDDIE FREEMAN, 6/9/2015, 1st INNING

TURNER FIELD: The 1,218th at-bat will be the 100,000th in Turner Field history (both teams combined).  JACE PETERSON, 5/21/2015, FLY OUT, 5th INNING

TURNER FIELD: The 186th double will be the 5,000th in Turner Field history (both teams combined).

TURNER FIELD: The 386th walk will be the 10,000th in Turner Field history (both teams combined).

TURNER FIELD: The 10th intentional walk will be the 1,000th in Turner Field history (both teams combined).  FREDDIE FREEMAN, 5/24/2015

TURNER FIELD: The 460th total base will be the 40,000th in Turner Field history (both teams combined).  ASDRUBAL CABRERA, 5/19/2015, HOME RUN

Just for fun, here's my pre-Spring Training prediction of the Braves' 25-man roster on Opening Day. Some explanation is offered below. Check back in six weeks to see how right (or wrong) I am!

SP Julio Teheran SP Alex Wood SP Mike Minor SP Shelby Miller SP Eric Stults RP Craig Kimbrel RP Jason Grilli RP Jim Johnson RP James Russell RP Josh Outman RP Aroldys Vizcaino RP Luis Avilan C Christian Bethancourt 1B Freddie Freeman 2B Alberto Callaspo 3B Chris Johnson SS Andrelton Simmons LF Eric Young CF BJ Upton RF Nick Markakis C AJ Pierzynski IF Phil Gosselin UT Kelly Johnson OF Jonny Gomes OF Zoilo Almonte

Thought Processes...

Rotation: Braves brass will want one starter older than Minor, and I pick Stults because I think he is the best candidate to be this year's Harang. Wandy and Wang just don't have it any more, and I doubt both will still be in the Braves organization on Opening Day. As for the youngsters waiting in the wings: Foltynewicz has some arm slot issues to work out before he can be successful at the Major League level. Bañuelos needs some seasoning (averages fewer than 5 IP per start, which is low even for the minors). Hursh, Perez, and Martin will probably round out the rotation in Gwinnett and will hopefully be interesting by late 2015 or Spring 2016.

Bullpen: Grilli, Johnson, and Russell are almost certainly locks. Outman is out of options, and Vizcaino appears to be, so they'd need to have an awful spring not to make the cut. Assuming the Braves roll with 12 pitchers, that leaves room for only one more. I pick Avilan on the wild assumption that last April's hamstring injury contributed largely to last year's inconsistency, and he'll return to prior form.

Bench: Pierzynski is really the only lock. I assume Johnson's ability to play multiple positions gives him a good chance to make the team, and having a lefty bat on the bench doesn't hurt. I assume either Young or Gomes will be the starting left fielder, and both make the team. I picked Gosselin over Pastornicky because he seems slightly better in my opinion and he's a year older. I assume Almonte makes the team mostly because he's a switch hitter and has decent skills as a hitter and a runner, which makes him more useful off the bench than Pastornicky or Gosselin, but we might cringe a little as his strikeout totals pile up.

The idea of speeding up the game has been discussed at length in recent weeks, and while I haven't liked many of the ideas, this one occurred to me just this morning.

I haven't thought this all the way through, so adjustments may be appropriate, or it may be a terrible idea.  But it's at least fair in that it addresses time wasted by both the hitter and the pitcher.  So... Here it is.

Once the home plate umpire has determined that the plate appearance is ready to begin and the pitcher may begin the pitching process...

The hitter cannot call "time out." (There will be circumstances when the progress of the game will be paused, of course, but the hitter can't initiate it.  Not to disrupt the pitcher's timing, not if he has a bug in his eye.  He's there to hit, and he has the option to duck out of the way at risk of taking a strike.)

If the pitcher steps off the rubber three times during one hitter's plate appearance, it will equate to a ball to the batter, similar to a fault in tennis, and similar to the automatic strike a hitter earns if he refuses to step into the batter's box and a pitcher rolls the ball across the plate.  (I remember this happening to Ron Gant many years ago.)

The pace of the game would pick up to the tune of a few seconds per at-bat, and perhaps (let's say) 30 to 60 seconds per half inning.  I've done no research to verify how much time would actually be saved, but that would shave 9 to 18 minutes per game without a significantly observable difference to how the game is played - other than forcing players into playing instead of posturing.

My favorite baseball stat that I formulated myself: I call it "Effectiveness" or the "Effectiveness Rating."  I love it because of how simple it is.

EFF = 3 * IP / BF

It's the out percentage of opposing batters faced.  Mathematically its range is 1.000 (facing the minimum is the pitching equivalent of batting 1.000) to .000 (zero outs recorded), so it's easy to digest.

It doesn't matter how the outs are recorded (or who helped record the out). Whether pitching to contact or putting up fielding-independent numbers to make the "sabermatics" (h/t Chris Berman) happy, all that matters is how many outs were recorded per batter faced. This "effectiveness" rates everyone the same.

I also love that inherited runners' runs scored aren't charged entirely to starters when relievers earn some of the advance around the bases, but that's minor.

Here are the top 20 starters and relievers at the All-Star Break in 2014:

You shouldn't be surprised that the opposite end of the spectrum includes pitchers who allow very high BA/OBP/SLG to opposing hitters.  I included some of these other stats so you can see how they might correlate.

1. Remove the tie-in to home field advantage in the World Series and go back to alternating NL and AL home field advantage each year.

2. Reduce the fan vote's impact to 50%. Let the players and coaches vote for the other 50% impact. Fans would be similar to the House of Representatives (larger fan bases would carry more weight, as they do now), and the players and coaches would be like the Senate (same weight per team). For vote totals, use percentages. Add each individual player's percentages together and divide by two to keep the number below 100%. It still won't be perfect, but it will be better.

Alternative: Also include baseball writers. Either 1/3 impact each for fans, players/coaches, BBWAA... or 1/2 fans, 1/4 players/coaches, 1/4 BBWAA.

3. For reserves, if a late June injury for an obviously deserving player will keep him out of the game, select him anyway. Don't take "All-Star" off his resume just because he got hurt. Select him, let him defer, and make another selection.

4. Start all MLB games early on Sunday afternoon before the All-Star break, since All-Star festivities like the Futures Game and Celebrity Softball Game take place Sunday evening. Let the entire baseball world join in the fun of those events.

5. There are far more "all star" pitchers than there are roster spots. Boost each roster by three just for extra pitchers, and require that at least three pitchers (any three, not based on order selected) must be available for possible extra innings.  Unless, of course, the would-be-last pitcher is injured in the ninth inning.

6. NO TIES.  Item 5 would help with this.

Short version: Braves will win 90+ games again and will be right in the thick of the playoff hunt. Of course, I say they make the playoffs, but it should be a good race to the end, and good or bad luck could shift things either way.

Long version: Click below to read more if you're interested in my optimistic outlook on the Braves 2014 season, as well as my playoff picks and individual award winners across MLB.

Just a few round numbers and team records on the horizon:

The year should belong to Craig Kimbrel. He needs two saves to reach 141 to tie Gene Garber for second, and 15 saves to reach 154 to tie John Smoltz for most saves in Braves history. Every save after that will set a new Braves record. Also, if Kimbrel earns 40 saves, he'll become only the third pitcher ever with 40 saves in four straight seasons after Francisco Rodriguez in 2005-2008, and Trevor Hoffman (twice) in 1998-2001 and 2004-2007.

Baseball is finally back, and so am I! I stopped rather abruptly last season as I shifted my focus to Mercer Bears football, so abruptly in fact that I never announced the winner of my bracket challenge, so I'll welcome everyone to 2014 with that!

Winning my MLB Playoff Bracket Challenge by correctly predicting all four LDS winners, the ALCS winner, and the World Series winner, was @rgcox2820!  @katiebravesfan actually predicted all four LDS winners and both the ALCS and NLCS winners, but picked the wrong champion!  So close!

In my rules, I stated that I'd give away a baseball card signed by Dale Murphy if at least 50 people played.  Including me, only 19 played.  I decided to give away the card anyway!  After all, I have two, which he sent me for winning one of his fastest-finger Twitter trivia questions a couple of years ago.  Paying it forward!  Here's the prize I sent: