无标题

Source: EIA Crude Oil Reports (Q4 2023)

Trump’s “energy dominance” mantra collides with reality. U.S. crude exports hit 4.1 million barrels per day in 2023—a record. Yet domestic refinery capacity has stagnated since 2019, forcing refiners to import 6.3 million bpd of heavy crude from Canada and Saudi Arabia. The Permian Basin’s light sweet crude isn’t usable in 60% of U.S. refineries designed for heavier grades.

Meanwhile, the IRA’s $369 billion green subsidies face headwinds. Tesla’s Q3 earnings showed a 44% gross margin on U.S.-made EVs—predicated on Chinese lithium-ion batteries. CATL’s new Michigan plant, producing LFP batteries under license, will capture 35% of the North American market by 2025, per BloombergNEF.