Verite Analytics

GÖKAY OTYAM: Good morning, wherever you are, watching us or listening to us. If it won’t distract you from what you are doing, take a moment and imagine a city that is safer, greener, cleaner and more importantly that has less traffic congestion. A city where it is cheaper to live, a city that consumes less energy, Is it possible to have such a city in Turkey? Istanbul, perhaps? We are talking about smart cities. We will be asking these questions. Ozgur Ozluk, the CEO and a founding partner of Verite Analytics is with us this morning.

Welcome, thanks for being with us.

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: Thanks for having me. Good morning.

GÖKAY OTYAM: The concept of smart cities: at what point are we now? Has it globally matured?

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: We can’t say it has fully matured at all. In fact, when you ask people to define it, you will have different answers from different groups. Of course, cities have very long life spans; it is difficult to quicjkly reengineer a city that has been around for centuries. There are two pilot projects that build smart cities ground up: One in UAE, called Masdar City, an enterprise that people have been working on for the last 3-4 years. One in South Korea, Songdo, a project in collaboration with Cisco. Even these ground up initiatives are not easily accomplished. In many cities in the world now, smart city applications have started; the forerunners being Barcelona , San Francisco, New York and Amsterdam.

GÖKAY OTYAM: So what do we in these cities? How do you define a smart city?

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK:  Let me give me my own definition. Smart cities are systems where you can take the pulse of the city through democractic participation, using technological advances and bring economical, ecological prosperity to the inhabitants.

GÖKAY OTYAM: For example, we get up and are about to leave our homes, do the smart city applications start right away?

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: Of course! The moment you are out on the Street, the street lights are collecting information; you go to the parking garage; you get into traffic, you throw away a piece of garbage. All these can have  smart city application embedded.

GÖKAY OTYAM: Can you give a specific example?

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: Sure. For example, in Barcelona they have installed smart trash bins on the streets, they can get real time info on the fullness levels of the containers using sensors. Imagine you are in traffic in Istanbul in the middle of the day and there is a garbage truck blocking the way. You  ask your self: does it need to be here? If we can put sensors in our trash bins as well, it will help ease traffic congestion.

GÖKAY OTYAM: And using the “Internet of Things” systems it gives signals to garbage trucks which bins are about to be full.

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: Exactly, or it may tell you that this street is blocked because of garbage collection and reroute you to another street.

GÖKAY OTYAM: We have the IBB system these that lets us see similar congestion info these days. What else will happen?

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: What else? You can get help with crime rates of the city, safety is an important issue. For example, in the US there is a company called Shotspotter,. They can detect gunshot on a street immediately, and then even figüre out what type of a firearm was used.

GÖKAY OTYAM: That level of detail.

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: They install microphones on the streets to detect the sound. In the short runm these might help you catch criminals faster and in the future, if you collect enough data you can predict where crime is more likely to happen in the city, not unlike the movie Minority Report with Tom Cruise.

GÖKAY OTYAM: Great. Now we have a news clip to watch: “is it possible to have an eco friendly smart city” we ask.

Narrator: Technology is advancing, cities are becoming smart. It is possible to reduce the problems of the cities and to save time with smart cities.

Brian Selby

Narrator: Using information and communication Technologies smart solutions can be obtained for energy, transportation, infrastructure and waste management.

Brian Selby

Narrator: More than half the world’s population now lives in cities. Pollution, traffic and the problems caused by overcrowding are being tackled using technological advancements. Big World cities such as New York, London and Singapore are taking measures to become smarter cities.

GÖKAY OTYAM: Dr. Ozluk, traffic congestion is hard to tackle but as I understand there are some solutions to provide some ease

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: Indeed

GÖKAY OTYAM: You say there are pilot projects in traffic management. When will we start seeing the benefits?

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK:  Traffic congestion is a global issue, not just limited to Turkey. According to a study, an American spends around 30 hours stuck in traffic per year, in Los Angeles, their Istanbul if you will, this figüre goes up to 65 hours. According to a Turk Telekom analysis, the number is 125 hours for Istanbul. I mean, of course traffic management is harder in a city with poor infrastructure, but if signalizations are done correctly, you can have amazing results.  In Los Angeles, 60% of the traffic lights are adaptive, which means at intersections based on the traffic levels, they can automatically change the length of a red light versus a green light. In Pittsburh, as a collaboration with Carnegie Mellon University, they are implementing a pilot for 20 traffic lights. I think such pilots will become more commonplace soon in Turkey. In fact, there is a project in Eskişehir, ground work for a similar project is happening in İzmir, Bornova. Turk Telekom has an initiative in Karaman, I believe. In the next 5-10 years, we will see more I hope and will benefit everyone.

GÖKAY OTYAM: In reality, we will also see energy savings along with smart citiies probably. For example, smart street lights with LED transformation. Right now, lights are either all on or all off, sometimes on at unnecessary hours of the day.

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: Exactly.

GÖKAY OTYAM: When they are smart, they will go on/off depending on people passing by.

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: Street lights in a city is one of the main arteries. If you can put sensors at the right locations, you can collect an unbelievable amount of data. Currently, in Turkey, there are 17 million street lights. According to the calculations of the Minister of Energy in 2012, we spend 650 million lira on these lights. Even if these lights are not smart, we can save around 50% just by replacing them with LED technology.

GÖKAY OTYAM: Really?

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: If you add a sensor to this. I saw a pilot project of GE in Budapest. At nights, a university campus is being lit at 40% when there is noone around. If a person or a vehicle enters, they don’t feel the 40%, since the light level goes up to 100% in  a circle around them using sensors. The energy savings can go from 50% to 80% if done correctly. These are incredible projects.

GÖKAY OTYAM: I understand that these are costly, aren’t they? Are these transformation a luxury?

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: Not really, they amortise themselves in 5 to 15 years. Secondly, the traditional sodium based lamps work for only 10000 hours but these LED lights can work up to 150000 hours. Amazing savings. Also, traditional lights burn out and you  are in the dark; LEDs have multiple components, so you don’t get total darkness if one piece stops working. So it is safer as well. In addition, you can add incredible sensors to these lights. You can examine pedestrian traffic, parking spaces, air quality. One day, Auntie Ayse will be able to see the CO2 levels in the area on her way to the market and we will be able to tell her “You have asthma, avoid these streets”

GÖKAY OTYAM: How soon will these happen? Is it too far in the future:

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: Not far, I don’t believe so. Technology is advancing so rapidly that within 5-10 years, we will witness systems like these all over the world as long as the city infrastructure allows.

GÖKAY OTYAM: And these, are they  happening in Turkey? Can they happen?

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: So the smart traffic signals projects are being piloted in many cities. Smart trash bins are in Konya ans Basaksehir Istanbul. The LED transformation is in its infancy, we will see more of that soon in Turkey too I think.

GÖKAY OTYAM: If we try harder, are there other predictions for a smart city? What kind of a life is expecting us? How easy will it all be?

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: Think of it this way. In the future, the moment we leave our houses on our way to work, when we are done with our workday, on our way to dinner, we will be able to receive all kinds of information and if done correctly, we won’t just get real time data but we will get predictions about one hour into the future, one day, maybe one week.

GÖKAY OTYAM: If the right statistical analysis can be done

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: That is what our company does, data based future prediction. The more we collect data, the more we collect better quality data, we are more likely to see clearly into the future.

GÖKAY OTYAM: So the margin of error will get smaller and smaller.

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: Indeed

GÖKAY OTYAM: And this will happen thanks to “Internet of Things” and I think that that infrastructure is more or less in place nowadays.

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: It is on its way. If we have time, I will give you a short example.

GÖKAY OTYAM: Briefly.

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: A data scienties has a 5 year old son, with diabetes. He wears a device around his waist that constanly measures his blood sugar level. The data scientists hacks into this device and collect its data. Using this, she can predict the blood sugar level of the kid with 95% accuracy up to 3 hours.

GÖKAY OTYAM: You mean, predicts the future?

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: Yes. İf the data predicts a blood sugar level drop, she immediately gives her a cracker. In the future, we will do the same for the cities. Their blood sugar level will never drop.

GÖKAY OTYAM: Similar to Minority Report, you say.

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: Exactly.

GÖKAY OTYAM: We will be able to all future possibilities then. How different will our lives be then?

ÖZGÜR ÖZLÜK: I think it will be great.

The Success of KentBiz

Big Data Will Save The City  For companies that would like to invest in “Analytic City” projects in Turkey, two significant questions need to be answered: Which products can be produced the fastest, can be accepted by citizens whole-heartedly and will make cities more “Analytic”? How can we leverage the already existing city-related data that is being collected by local and state governments to create solutions generating positive value for the constituents of the cities? In the upcoming years, companies who can answer these questions in a nimble and solution-focused manner will become the pioneers in the “Analytic City” field. Verite Analytics is a proud contender in this field, spending each and every day thinking about these questions, talking to stakeholders and investing in R&D for a brighter future for all of us.

Each passing day, the metaphorical center of gravity for the world is inching towards urban centers. By the end of 2014, 54% of the global population lives in the cities and this figure is expected to pass 66% before 2050. In Turkey, 76% of the population lived in rural areas in 1927, early years of the republic; nowadays 78% have shifted to metropolitan areas. This shift inevitably brings up the question that riddles many 21st century city governments: how can we make these ever growing cities better managed and more secure? At first look, this challenge seems too entangled to tackle, but if we think twice, we realize that the solution comes in the form of one of the biggest business: Smart Cities.

Today, if the city governments can create the right infrastructure systems in collaboration with capable IT firms, they can access a plethora of data using the latest hardware and software solutions and will be able to hold the pulse of the city: how people are utilizing the city services and how they move in, out of and around the cityscape. If the data collected can be analyzed under the right leadership with focused investment strategies, it is easy to rebuild the city Smart. In fact, we at Verite Analytics call such a city: “The Analytic City”. Of course, at every step towards the endeavor of an “Analytic City”, municipalities should work with visionary leaders and entrepreneurs of the IT and data science fields.

In recent years, cities all over the world are seeking to find ways to become “smarter”. For Turkey, specifically for Istanbul, the most important smart city applications would be the ones that alleviate the nagging traffic problem that haunts everybody who spends at least a day here. So let’s take a look at three unique ways to deal with traffic problems from around the world.

An ideal solution would try and reduce the number of motorized vehicles in traffic and the easiest way to achieve this would be to encourage more people to use bicycles. To accomplish this in a metropolitan area, first we need to analyze how the roads and pavements are distributed through the city and investigate the best routes for adding bicycle paths. This information can be combined with city demographic data to determine where citizen groups most likely to take up biking (for example, university students) are located and how they move about in the city. Done effectively, this can transfer some of the motorized traffic in this greener and healthier direction. In Turkey, we have been seeing programs to stimulate bicycle use sprouting all over the country; as of 2014, Istanbul, Izmir, Bursa, Kocaeli and Adana municipalities have bike-sharing programs of varying size and success. Ideally, the programs should be marketed better to increase public awareness and the features of the most successful of these sharing platforms should be adapted in more cities. For successful implementations, these projects could be undertaken by entrepreneurs in the private sector in provinces where public transportation services have not been effectively implemented; for example, in the U.S., private enterprise Zagster has taken the leadership to bring a bike-sharing program to Detroit in partnership with General Motors.

Another potential solution is controlling traffic flow through pricing: on certain days of the week/times of the day, motorized vehicles driving into and out of high traffic zones in the city can be asked to pay a fare.  This type of pricing systems is commonly implemented in the world.  A zone pricing system that has been in use in London since 2003 not only reduced the traffic congestion in the downtown London area, it also helped increase air quality in the city center and provided an additional revenue stream of 1 billion pounds over the last 10 years, based on reports published by Transport for London authorities. A similar pricing plan has been deployed in Milan around 2008 and reduced the traffic volume by 33%. To double the benefits achieved by the program, Milan city officials decided to utilize the revenue generated to develop mass transit infrastructure and create funds for supporting projects geared towards air pollution reduction. As a pilot project, bridge tolls in Istanbul could be increased during rush hour periods to curb excessive traffic. With the already in-place traffic cameras, the toll prices could be updated in real-time and drivers could be informed through mobile and Internet platforms. Istanbul with a lighter traffic load would become much more attractive for domestic and foreign investors, which should create enough of an incentive for Turkish private sector to advocate such fare/toll strategies.

What is Big Data?

When I was young, we would go to Uncle Haci’s clothing store at the start of each semester. The moment we walked through his store’s doors, he would show my mom the latest offerings in her favorite colors, comment on how I grew a few inches taller since the last time we saw him and lay a cotton pink shirt that my sister was sure to fall in love with. We would leave his store with overflowing bags, happy and satisfied. These days, I do a good deal of my clothes shopping online. Some websites greet me with a small “Hello Ozgur” icon at the top of the page, show me immediately “The Most Popular Items” and let me know that others who have clicked on this blue striped shirt I am browsing, have also looked at these skinny black jeans – all in an effort to personalize my highly sterile online shopping experience. At the end of the day, the goal is to make me feel like I have walked into Uncle Haci’s store with his personable smile and keen knowledge of what I might want. And what is behind the curtain of all these personalization efforts? Big Data.

Big Data is one of the forefront runners for the “Buzzword of the Decade”; you hear it everywhere. Data itself is nothing new for humanity. We have been recording our lives more than 17 millennia ago, started by animal paintings in the monumental Lascaux cave, southern France. There are records to suggest that six thousand years ago, Babylonians undertook the first census to count the number of people and livestock, as well as quantities of butter, honey, milk, wool and vegetables.

What makes the data that we have been collecting for ages “Big” all of sudden?

There are three important qualities to it: Volume, Velocity and Variety. It is not surprising that we can now collect tons of data from the Internet considering that over three billion people are surfing it every day.  When we examine global figures, we see that in one minute, more than 200,000 photos are uploaded on Facebook, almost 100 hours worth video is shared on YouTube and around 350,000 tweets are broadcast on Twitter. In the very same minute, the number of searches performed on Google is close to 4 million. At this head-spinning rate, it’s been calculated that the data we produced in the last couple of years account for more than 90% of all data created since recorded human history. Furthermore, data is no longer a quantitative simple concept; we can now treat every phone conversation, every video recording and every WhatsApp exchange as data and analyze it to produce actionable information.

Technological advances in the electronics and computing fields are a major force behind this Big Data avalanche. First of all, storing data has become incredibly inexpensive: a hard disk of 5MB capacity used to cost around $400,000 in 1950s; nowadays we can buy a 128 GB USB drive from the local tech shop for under $100. Add to this, faster processors that are capable of parallel computing, open source platforms such as Hadoop that makes distributed data architecture easier, it is no wonder we are living in the Golden Era of Data.

The benefits of the information that can be extracted from Big Data are not just limited to the online marketing domain either. In recent years, Center for Disease Control in the U.S. has teamed up with Google data scientists to predict flu epidemics before the cases start hitting the hospital emergency rooms, simply by tracking the prevalence of search keywords such as “Runny Nose”, “Itchy Throat” and “High Fever”.  By collecting data from the chips it has installed in its Fusion brand vehicles, Ford Motor Company is exploring ways to optimize driving routes to reduce a vehicle’s impact on local air quality in specific locations, such as near hospitals, schools and in high density residential areas.

As a result of all of these developments, “Data Analytics” is becoming on of the most popular professional fields all over the world. According to a report by McKinsey, in the next 5 years the U.S. only will need 140,000-190,000 workers with advanced skills in data analytics and 1.5 million managers capable and knowledgeable enough to make decisions based on detailed data exploration.