#worlds2015

I think it’s safe to say that, following the events of the Quarterfinals, EUphoria is in full swing. Fnatic’s clean sweep of EDG left us gawping with amazement as it completed the trifecta of poor Chinese performances at Worlds while Origen’s 3-1 defeat of Yoe Flash Wolves left us wondering and, dare I say, hoping for the chance of an EU vs. EU final. However, no matter how much speed this Origen vs. Fnatic hype train ramps up, there’s a big, buffer looming in the distance. A big, Korean-shaped buffer.

You see, the final Europe is dreaming of is, most likely not going to happen. In fact, most people know it won’t happen. The primary reason for this is the Origen/SKT Semi-final match.

SK Telecom, as they have done for a while now, look unstoppable. They lost only 1 Bo3 in Champions Summer and are so far undefeated at Worlds 2015. They have done so without losing a single Tier 2 turret. They steamrolled their group and AHQ couldn’t even dent them in their Quarterfinal match, losing 3-0. With every international tournament they attend, they always look like the favourites and it’s always with good reason.  Right now, they have the average shortest game time at 28.6 minutes. The next closest semi-finalist in terms of game time is KOO Tigers with 33.3 minutes and KOO definitely does not have the same 9-0 record as SKT. These games aren’t bloodless either. SKT has only 4 kills less than KOO, the leaders in terms of Total Kills at 156 and are only 3 kills behind Fnatic at 153. However, SKT has half the number of death of both these teams: 55 deaths compared to the 94 of KOO and 104 of Fnatic, suggesting a much more strangulating approach to SKT than the brawls of Fnatic and KOO.

At a basic level, it can be attributed to the strength of their players. Marin, the captain, is the best Top Laner at worlds, closely followed by Smeb and Huni. His play, this tournament especially, has been exemplary and has carried his team to victory one more than one occasion like his 10/0/6 game as Fiora in the first game against EDG in the Group Stage. He also hold the second largest % Total Gold Share on SKT behind Bang, suggesting that resources are prioritised into him after Bang while also typically holding a 13 CS lead over his lane opponent at 10 minutes. Speaking of Bang, in my eyes, Bang has been a key force in SKT for this World Championship. At one point, he held the highest KDA of any player at any international tournament and still hold the highest KDA for his position and by a large margin. He is one of SKT key damage threats and is one part of SKT triple threat which was best encapsulated by a picture I saw on Inven: If Marin doesn’t carry, then Faker or Bang will carry and so on a so forth. There’s only so many resources you can put into shutting a player down, so it’s a herculean task to stop all 3 of SKT’s carry stars. Coupled with a very smart jungler and Worlds Champion in Bengi and Wolf who, despite taking plenty of flak for not being up to par to his support peers such as Piccaboo and Gorilla in the LCK, has shown growth and has been key to SKTs vision control.

Taking on this colossus falls to Origen. Proudly the protagonist of the top Cinderella story at Worlds, Origen’s rise from Challenger series to Worlds Semi-finalist has been nothing short of electric to watch. xPeke should be, rightfully, applauded for this feat. But, despite all this, I don’t think it will be enough to halt the SKT juggernaut from reaching the final that it probably deserves to be in.

The centre of OG is not, in fact, xPeke but their rookie ADC, Niels and it’s hard to deny that this guy deserves all the praise and hype that has been placed on him. Considering his arc from straight out of SoloQ to LCS to 2nd in Summer Playoffs to Worlds to Top 4 at Worlds is utterly astounding, though by no means a world first (In fact, SKT can claim a similar feat with its original roster when they were rookies), but is still impressive nonetheless. His stats are demonstrative of his status as the central carry of Origen; Highest KP at 88%, Highest Damage to Champions per Minute (610), Highest % Damage Share (33.3%) and Highest % Gold Share (28.1%) with xPeke in close second. The stats would leave you to believe that OG is simply Niels & Friends, where the rest of OG simply play second fiddle to this great Dane. This is not the case. As with in the EULCS Finals against Fnatic, Soaz has shown why he is one of the top players in his position in EU and is more than comfortable with playing this carry meta, being considered by some to be one of the top Gangplank players in the worlds. Amazing and Mithy has also been key, providing most of the engage and disengage for OG and it’s often left to them to set up fights for Niels and Soaz. Mithy has been especially good at this, boasting a 74.8% Kill Participation, second only to, you guessed it, Niels.

So where does that leave xPeke? Originally, he was considered to be the weak link in OG going into the tournament, especially considering EU is, historically, stacked with talented Mids. Febiven, for example, has been setting the world stage on fire with his play since MSI and has continued to demonstrate his prowess throughout the Summer Season and at this tournament. Again, purely looking at stats, xPeke seems to fulfil this idea of being the weakest link. He has a -2.6 CS@10 and a -117.6 GD@10 leaving him in the bottom 5 in both those categories. Where xPeke’s strength lies is not shown in his stats but instead in his actual games.

Firstly xPeke and Soaz can, for the most part, be credited with running the double TP meta, running it as far back as season 2 and, for a long time, considered “The Fnatic Special” when they were both on that team. With the re-emergence and current strength of the TP meta, this plays into OGs hands. In addition, xPeke focus on utility, team fight oriented champions and his subsequent play on said champions has more than quelled such doubts. The game against LGD highlighted this when his Shockwave effectively turned the game for OG and allowed them to take control the game. This style also facilitates Niels as a hard carry, giving him even more tools to succeed. This ability to play team fight helps to somewhat neutralise the gold disadvantage he typically accrues in lane.

On the other hand, against Faker, a man who had both the highest GD@10 (449.6) and the second highest CSD@10 (16.1), it may not be enough and Faker must just be able to gain such an advantage against xPeke that, not matter how well xPeke plays the subsequent team fights, he won’t be able to have the desired impact due to such an disadvantage. You can also be damned sure that Bengi knows that Niels is the main threat and will be sure to place a greater emphasis on making sure that Bang will be able to get ahead. Soaz tendency to overextend without vision will also be another target for Bengi and Marin to seize in order to further swing the game in their favour.

There is a further factor that tilts the scales against Orgien. The tournament-wide banning of Gragas. The loss of Gragas, overall, is somewhat harmful to all teams within the final 4. He was the go-to jungler for running both engage and disengage and formed one part of the holy trinity of junglers at Worlds: Elise, Rek’Sai and Gragas. Though all teams will suffer and need, and have been given, time to rethink strategies, Origen, arguably, had a greater reliance on the Rabble Rouser.

Primarily, Gragas was Amazing’s champion of choice in terms of times played and win rate: 75% win rate at Worlds (4 times played; 3 wins, 1 losses; 2.86 KDA), 71.4% win rate in the Regular Summer Season (7 games; 5 wins, 2 losses; 6.08 KDA) and 40% win rate in the Summer Playoff (5 games; 2 wins, 3 losses; 2.3 KDA). That is nothing to be sniffed at. Removing this champion is going to place greater emphasis on the so-called “2nd Tier” junglers: Lee Sin and Eve with even the possibility of Nunu, Nidalee and more seeing greater play. This matter is made even more pressing by the fact that Bengi really doesn’t have this same reliance; In fact his most played champion is Elise (5 games, 5 wins) with Gragas only being played the once. It’ll be interesting to see whether OG and, especially, Amazing, can adapt in time to bring a greater variety to his champion pool outside of his Gragas success or whether they’ll focus more on denying that Elise away from Bengi. Even if this happens, Bengi should be comfortable on the other champions currently in the meta or he even might call on the Nunu he likes to play.

I know I’ve been pushing and pushing this idea that this EU vs. EU will not happen and, like I said it most likely won’t. Most likely. But, that still leaves an absolutely minute chance that it could happen. For some, that’s enough. Origen has shown that it can beat Korean teams. They did beat KT in the group stages and, at that point, KT was considered to be the 2nd best team out of the LCK and did eventually finish top of Group D. That was, though, a single game and OG were beaten come their second encounter. Taking a single game of KT is by no means a good indicator of how well they’ll before against the LCK’s best, considering that KT were dismantled by SKT in the LCK Summer finals and since, in Bo5, it’s been 3 years since a western team have beaten a Korean team. It’s hard to judge Origen’s place in the international order considering the how young the organisation is.

In the universe we currently reside in, the Fnatic/SK Telecom final is the forgone conclusion at this stage. That being said, I am, by no means, discounting KOO from making the final. KOO Tigers have markedly improved since their Summer Playoff match vs KT, which was demonstrated in their Quarterfinal rematch. In this set, KOO showed and excellent pick and ban phase, something that KT did not, giving up Fiora to Smeb over all 4 games and letting Kuro have his beloved Viktor. Speak of the devil, Smeb was a… well… a devil throughout this series and has been a standout player throughout Worlds. He leads the stats for top laners in Damager per minute, Damage per Gold Spent, is the only top laner to break the 500 DPM ceiling and is utter bloodthirsty with 52 kills, the highest out of any player, in any position, at Worlds. In the Quarterfinals, he had a combined 13/5/16 KDA on Fiora and showcased some of the most graceful play ever on that champion. The top lane will certainly be one to focus for all in the KOO/Fnatic Semi-final.

That being said, FNC / KOO could still very easily be won by Fnatic, considering how well they’ve been playing as a team and the skill of individual players. Their 3-0ing of EDG was undertaken with finesse and poise from a mechanical standpoint and also showed how well Fnatic can play at any stage in the game, be it at a deficit or with an advantage. In conjuncture with very mechanically skilled players and, undoubtedly, the best coach in western League of Legends, Fnatic are in a very strong position to vie for that place in the finals and, maybe, can eve challenge SKT for the Summoner’s Cup, but that is a different story altogether.