Once hailed as a neutral mediator in East African diplomacy, Kenya now finds itself facing criticism for what many see as a dangerous pivot. At the heart of the controversy is the country’s perceived involvement in Sudan’s ongoing civil war — a conflict that has already displaced millions and left a trail of destruction across the nation.

A Nairobi Meeting That Sparked a Firestorm

In February, an event held in Nairobi’s central business district drew significant attention — but not for the reasons one might expect. The hall, draped not in Kenya’s national colors but in the flag of Sudan, hosted leaders of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a powerful Sudanese paramilitary group at war with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).

During the gathering, the RSF and some allied civilian groups unveiled a “Sudan Founding Charter” and proposed a new transitional constitution. While this was framed as a step toward peace, it also laid the groundwork for an RSF-backed parallel government — and critics were quick to question Kenya’s role in it all.

Sudan Reacts: A Diplomatic Fallout

The backlash was swift. The SAF-led government, based in Port Sudan, condemned the meetings in no uncertain terms, calling Kenya a “rogue state” and accusing it of supporting a group responsible for alleged genocidal acts in Darfur. They even recalled their ambassador to Nairobi.

Internationally, countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia joined Sudan in expressing outrage. Kenya, however, stood by its actions. Foreign Secretary Musalia Mudavadi insisted that Nairobi was merely providing a “neutral platform” for peace discussions, in line with its historical role as a regional mediator.

But Is Kenya Still Neutral?

Analysts and political observers aren’t so sure.

“In football terms, this was a diplomatic own goal,” remarked Abdullahi Boru Halakhe, a policy expert with Refugees International. He argues that Kenya’s credibility as a peace broker has taken a hit — one that could take years to recover from.

This isn’t an isolated incident either. Just a few months earlier, Kenya clashed with the Democratic Republic of Congo over allegations that Nairobi was harboring rebel groups. Together, these events paint a picture of a foreign policy shift under President William Ruto — and not necessarily one that sits well with Kenya’s neighbors.

What’s Really Going On Behind the Scenes?

Speculation about Kenya’s motives has been rife.

Some point to a growing personal connection between President Ruto and RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo. Ruto hosted Hemedti during a regional tour in January, and notably, Hemedti’s brother — RSF deputy commander Abdulrahim Dagalo — joined Ruto on a state trip to South Sudan. The U.S. has sanctioned Abdulrahim for his role in war atrocities.

Others suggest economics may be at play. In January, Kenya signed a major investment deal with the United Arab Emirates — a country accused of quietly supporting the RSF, though it denies any involvement. The deal promises to double UAE investments in Kenya and includes a $1.5 billion loan Nairobi badly needs to plug its budget deficits.

Sudanese Voices: “This Isn’t Peacemaking”

For many Sudanese, Kenya’s actions are deeply troubling. Political analyst Shaza El Mahdi described the Nairobi meetings as “a branding exercise” for the RSF — one aimed at gaining legitimacy rather than achieving peace.

“This move raises red flags for us as Sudanese,” she told Al Jazeera. “It’s more about dividing the country than healing it.”

She and others argue that any legitimate peace process must involve both the RSF and the SAF — and that excluding one side only deepens the divide.

The Bigger Picture: Kenya’s Regional Role at Risk

For years, Kenya has played a crucial role in East African peace efforts, from brokering deals in Somalia to hosting key Sudanese negotiations. But as the lines blur between peacemaker and peacebreaker, that legacy is now in question.

Over a year has passed since William Ruto was sworn in as Kenya’s fifth president. He took office amid a storm of economic challenges—soaring food and fuel prices, rising unemployment, and a daunting national debt.

During his campaign, Ruto cast himself as the champion of the common citizen. He vowed to reform a corrupt system, restore good governance, uphold the rule of law, and prioritize the needs of the poor. He pledged to end the cycle of ethnic-based politics and to strengthen constitutionalism—pillars essential for stability, economic growth, and equitable resource distribution.

These promises resonated deeply. For decades, Kenya's political elite have exploited ethnic divisions to secure power, weakening state institutions and fueling corruption and impunity. My research into democratic transitions, elections, and state-building in Africa—particularly my 2018 book—illustrates how such practices have undermined Kenya’s progress.

In his first year, Ruto made notable strides in fulfilling some campaign pledges. He took swift actions that did not require constitutional reforms, such as easing tensions between the executive and judiciary, separating police finances from the executive arm, and returning port operations to Mombasa from Naivasha. But his administration has struggled to ease the economic burden facing most Kenyans.

A Worsening Economy

Ruto presented himself as a political outsider with the vision to lift the poor from economic despair. Yet, under his leadership, life has become harder for many. Inflation has spiked, largely due to increased fuel costs and a depreciating currency. The removal of subsidies on fuel and food—intended to reduce reliance on foreign debt—has hit Kenyans hard. Meanwhile, new taxes have further strained household incomes.

His administration has prioritized fertilizer subsidies to boost agricultural productivity, but it remains uncertain whether this alone can secure food self-sufficiency. More comprehensive and strategic reforms are needed to revive agriculture, Kenya’s economic backbone.

The launch of the “Hustler Fund,” aimed at making credit more accessible to low-income earners, was a step toward economic inclusion. However, its potential benefits risk being nullified by punitive tax policies and a sluggish economy that stifles job creation and business growth.

Rule of Law: Mixed Progress

Ruto began his presidency with a symbolic move—appointing six judges previously blocked by his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta. He also increased budgetary support for the judiciary. These gestures reinforced his message of respect for the rule of law.

However, true adherence to constitutionalism demands more. Judicial integrity must be unwavering. The law should apply equally to all, including the political elite. While Ruto has, at times, accepted unfavourable court rulings, his administration has also faced accusations of flouting court orders, echoing past regimes.

The president also spoke out against extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances by the police, and delivered on his promise to grant the police financial autonomy. Yet, the culture of impunity within the police force remains intact. Extrajudicial killings persist, and without robust civilian oversight, constitutional reforms risk remaining symbolic.

Ruto’s pledge to establish a commission of inquiry into state capture under Kenyatta’s administration remains unfulfilled—a notable failure in his anti-corruption agenda. Without such accountability, his commitment to fighting graft appears hollow. Tackling corruption decisively—recovering stolen assets and prosecuting economic crimes—would reduce reliance on taxation and borrowing.

National Cohesion: A Fragile Foundation

One of Ruto’s biggest challenges remains national unity. His administration has fallen into the same patterns of patronage, ethnic favoritism, and recycling of political appointees. Disturbingly, some top officials continue to openly engage in divisive ethnic rhetoric without facing consequences.

Despite his campaign against elite deals and political accommodations, Ruto eventually engaged in dialogue with opposition leaders following their protests. While intended to ease political tensions, these talks may pave the way for constitutional amendments creating more political positions—a move many see as a betrayal of his original anti-dynasty, pro-hustler stance.

Kenya remains fractured along ethnic, regional, economic, and religious lines—a legacy of past administrations. Ruto must transcend ethnic allegiances and adopt a meritocratic approach in public appointments. Most critically, he must reconnect with the “hustler nation”—the disenfranchised masses who were instrumental in his rise to power.

The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party has urged for continued cooperation between the opposition and the government despite ODM leader Raila Odinga’s loss in the race for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship.

Support for Raila's AUC Bid: UDA Secretary-General Hassan Omar emphasized that the government, led by President William Ruto, did its part to support Raila Odinga in securing the AUC top seat. Despite Odinga's defeat to Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Omar reaffirmed the government's commitment to backing Odinga's bid.

Emphasis on Unity: Hassan Omar expressed that the outcome of the election should not derail the efforts of building a united Kenya. He highlighted the importance of continued collaboration between President Ruto and Odinga, stressing that this alliance remains crucial for the country’s future.

President Ruto's Solidarity with Raila: The UDA party praised President Ruto for his steadfast support of Raila Odinga throughout the AUC chairmanship campaign, underlining his courage in standing by the ODM leader until the end. Omar noted that while luck was not on Odinga's side, the future still holds potential for further opportunities.

Call for Political Solidarity: The statement also called for political unity, encouraging both Ruto and Odinga to remain in solidarity, as their cooperation is viewed as a key component in fostering national progress.

Future Prospects: Despite the setback, Omar expressed optimism about future opportunities, stressing that the political landscape may present new avenues for success, urging leaders to stay united for the benefit of Kenya.

By Anastasios Gordon Sekandi – Wednesday, January 15, 2025 Courtesy Photo East Africa is exploring a strategic partnership with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to extend the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), connecting Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan.“As part of the plan, we have agreed to conduct a feasibility study on extending the SGR due to its potential to foster regional integration and promote…

By Anastasios Gordon Sekandi – Wednesday, January 15, 2025 Courtesy Photo East Africa is exploring a strategic partnership with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to extend the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), connecting Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan.“As part of the plan, we have agreed to conduct a feasibility study on extending the SGR due to its potential to foster regional integration and promote…

By Anastasios Gordon Sekandi – Wednesday, January 15, 2025 Courtesy Photo East Africa is exploring a strategic partnership with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to extend the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), connecting Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan.“As part of the plan, we have agreed to conduct a feasibility study on extending the SGR due to its potential to foster regional integration and promote…