UFC 323 early thoughts and questions and noise:
Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2 - Petr Yan has spent the better part of the last two years rebuilding his confidence after that 3 fight skid that started with him losing to Aljo and ended with Merab breaking him on pace. And I think he’s as close to that form as anyone could ever expect him to be at this stage of his career. But he’s never addressed the underlying problems that caused him to struggle with Merab, O’Malley, and Aljo - a lack of a range game. Yan has a good jab and is a very good boxer, but he eschews it to be a pocket pressure fighter. He wants to be inside range, ripping punches and pushing opponents back. The problem is that invites constant TD opportunities for Merab. And while I think Yan showed he was more than capable of wrestling/grappling with Merab for small stretches, he can’t keep up with the pace and volume that Merab puts on folks. I expect this to look similar to their first fight, though I doubt Merab shoots 50 times. With Merab’s improved boxing skills and conf, maybe Yan is able to draw out some more big moments but hard to envision a path to victory for him without that one change.
Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van - I love both these guys. Extremely entertaining fighters. Think the world of Van. He’s got good Robbie Lawler energy. Fully expect to see him get worked here. A lot of the issues I see in the Dvalishvili-Yan rematch, I see here for Van. Except while Pantoja is nowhere near as conditioned or skilled a wrestler as Merab, he is infinitely more difficult to kill. And he’s just as insistent with what he wants - a connection. Pantoja isn’t looking to run thru the double, he’s looking for paths to the back where he can look for his crab ride and get the back. Van has shown he’s a good defensive wrestler but struggles with separation. And realistically he will be coming forward looking for counters (left hook/right overhand). Without having seen him diffuse a grappler like Pantoja, it’s hard to see anything other than a Pantoja RNC. Especially if Van can’t go out there and immediately get some respect.
Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira - for all the ways Moreno has lost of late, getting ground down by a grappler with limited striking skills hasn’t been one of them. While Taira looked good against Park on the feet, it was Park. Taira has some of the same back taking skills guys like Pantoja and Formiga have that could pose threats, but Moreno ultimately survived those moments. He’s a fantastic back take artist himself and one of the best scramblers in the sport. And if Taira freezes up again like he did against Royval at range (who is a worse wrestler), what really is his path to the back?
Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott - we’re a year removed from Talbott getting thoroughly outwrestled by Raoni Barcelos. He looked improved in his fight with Lima, but this is a bigger step up. Cejudo hasn’t won a fight since 2020 but he’s also just been fighting way stiffer competition than Talbott. But pushing 40 and with retirement on his mind, is that enough to push Talbott over the top should he be able to stop the takedown?
Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov - on the one hand, Bogdan Guskov is 1/2 of the goofiest, dumbest fight I’ve ever seen. On the other, Blachowicz is 42 and hasn’t won a fight since 2022. 🤷🏾♂️