#retest

I’ve been kicking my Japanese studies into overdrive because I looked at my grade and went “holy shit!!!” So that’s kinda been the theme of the week.

Indonesian patchouli, vetiver, leather, sandalwood, Texas cedar, spices, ambergris and flowers trails.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7218898741871718400

CUET UG 2024: The re-test is scheduled for July 19 and is intended for 1,000 students who are dissatisfied with the provisional answer key and have submitted their grievances to the testing body.

The National Testing Agency (NTA) announced on Sunday that the admit cards for the re-test of the Common University Entrance Test Undergraduate (CUET UG) 2024 will be released soon. The re-test is scheduled for July 19 and is intended for 1,000 students who are dissatisfied with the provisional answer key and have submitted their grievances to the testing body. The re-examination will be conducted in the Computer-Based Test (CBT) mode.

The initial exams were conducted by the NTA on May 15, 16, 17, 18, 21, 22, 24, and 29 at various centers located in 379 cities, including 26 cities outside India, for approximately 1.348 million candidates.

Will This On-Chain Retest Be Successful?

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On-chain data shows a Bitcoin metric is approaching a crucial retest that can make or break a rally. Will the bulls come out on top?

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Is Nearing 1 Level

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, a successful retest here would be constructive for the price of the asset. The indicator of interest here is the “realized profit/loss ratio,” which measures the ratio between the profits and losses that Bitcoin investors throughout the network are realizing right now.

The metric works by going through the on-chain history of each coin being sold to see what price it was last acquired at. If this previous price for any coin was less than the BTC value that it’s now being sold/moved at, then the coin’s sale is said to be realizing some amount of profit.

Naturally, the opposite case would imply that loss realization is occurring with the coin’s movement. The metric takes the sum of all such profits and losses being harvested in the market and finds the ratio between them.

When the value of this ratio is greater than 1, it means that the market as a whole is realizing some amount of profit currently. On the other hand, values under this threshold imply losses are more dominant in the sector right now.

In the context of the current discussion, the realized profit/loss ratio for the entire market is actually not the metric of focus, but the version specifically for the “short-term holders” (STHs) is.

The STHs are one of the two major groups in the Bitcoin market and include all the investors who have been holding onto their coins since less than 155 days ago.

Here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) BTC STH realized profit/loss ratio over the last couple of years:

The value of the metric seems to have been going down in recent days | Source: Glassnode on Twitter

As displayed in the above graph, the 7-day EMA Bitcoin STH realized profit/loss ratio has been above 1 during the past few months, suggesting that profit realization has been the dominant force.

This naturally makes sense, as the rally occurred during this period, which would have made it so that these investors would be in plenty of profits. Recently, however, the metric has been going down as the price has observed a decline.

From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator is now closing in toward the 1 mark. The 1 line has historically held immense significance for the market, as it serves as the point where the STHs are just breaking even on their selling.

During bearish periods, this line has usually provided resistance to the price of Bitcoin, while it has switched to being a support point during bullish regimes. The reason behind this interesting pattern lies in the fact that investors look at their break-even mark very differently between the two types of markets.

In a bearish environment, investors see the break-even mark as an ideal exiting point, as that way, they can at least avoid getting into losses. Thus, a lot of selling takes place at the level, leading to the price feeling resistance. Similarly, the investors look at the level as a profitable buying opportunity during rallies, so they participate in some buying at it.

Obviously, if the current rally has to have any chance at going, this retest of the 1 level would have to be successful. If a breakdown happens here, however, then a bearish regime might return for Bitcoin.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,000, up 1% in the last week.

BTC has been moving sideways | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

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Cardano (ADA) Price Slumps Further After BTC $25,000 Retest

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Cardano (ADA) has been facing a challenging market environment as the cryptocurrency weakened further amid Bitcoin’s retest of the $25,000 zone. As one of the top cryptocurrencies in terms of market capitalization, Cardano has been closely impacted by broader market trends. 

This setback has raised questions about the future trajectory of Cardano and whether the bulls will be able to regain control. Will the recent market weakness provide an opportunity for the bulls to stage a comeback and propel Cardano toward a new upward trajectory?

Bitcoin slightly below the $26K level. Source: Coingecko

Cardano Faces Price Volatility As Selling Pressure Persists

Cardano (ADA) currently has a price of $0.282786, experiencing a modest 8.1% rally within the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. However, the cryptocurrency has endured a significant decline of 24.3% over the course of the last seven days. 

ADA performing poorly on the weekly timeframe. Source: Coingecko

This decline follows a retreat from ADA’s highest price level in 2023, reaching $0.462 in mid-April, before dropping to lows of $0.221 in December. The coin has since managed to partially recover from the losses.

The technical indicators for the ADA/USD pair show a significant negative trend developing. The recent breakdown below $0.2779, a critical support level, indicates that further selling pressure is possible.

To analyze the price movement, technical indicators such as the Fibonacci retracement tool and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) provide insights. The Fibonacci retracement tool, plotted between the high point in April and the recent low on June 10, indicates the potential levels for ADA’s price movement. 

Cardano market cap slightly below $10 billion. ADAUSD Chart: TradingView.com

Additionally, the RSI has been consistently below the median point since mid-April, further declining into the oversold zone at the time of writing. This indicates a significant increase in selling pressure and suggests a bearish sentiment.

ADA Price Outlook Depends On BTC And Market Sentiment

The current market conditions for ADA remain uncertain as the cryptocurrency faces selling pressure and price volatility. With increased trading volumes and a decline in price, ADA could potentially be dragged further down to support levels at $0.22 or even $0.164 if the bearish sentiment persists and Bitcoin fails to transition to a bullish trend.

Cardano has a 24-hour trading volume of $595 million, placing it seventh on CoinMarketCap. Cardano’s current market capitalization is $9.3 billion. The circulating supply of this cryptocurrency is 34,903,977,012, while its maximal supply is 45,000,000,000,000,000 ADA coins.

Meanwhile, there is a glimmer of hope for ADA bulls if Bitcoin manages to turn bullish, particularly if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adopts a dovish stance.

As the cryptocurrency market continues to be influenced by various factors, including market sentiment, Bitcoin’s performance, and global economic events, it remains crucial for investors to stay vigilant and monitor the developments closely. 

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from The Coin Republic

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